Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the US military and some media have begun to spread concerns about the situation in the Taiwan Strait, believing that the war in Eastern Europe has provided a model for China to solve the Taiwan issue, and calling for china to guard against China in multiple fields such as politics, economy and military.
Recently, the US "Defense No. 1" website published an article by former US Vice Secretary of the Navy Seth Cropsy, holding that the United States should consider the possibility of setting up a no-fly zone in Taiwan, and that air supremacy over the Taiwan Sea is of vital importance.
Seth Clopsy pointed out that Taiwan is very different from Ukraine because taiwan is smaller and more vulnerable, and it is crucial for the United States and Taiwan to maintain air superiority. However, it is not easy to maintain air superiority, because it needs Taiwan's own support for a period of time before the US military intervention, and the US air support also needs to cross the Philippine Sea, Luzon Islands, Ryukyu Islands and other regions, it takes a certain amount of time to reach the Taiwan Sea, and it is very difficult to seize air supremacy.
Screenshot of the defense one website report
However, Seth Clopsy also pointed out that as long as the US military does the following four points, it can quickly seize air superiority over the Taiwan Strait.
First, Seth Clopsy believed that the United States must ensure its air and sea superiority in the Ryukyu Islands, the Bashi Strait, and the Philippine Sea, and deploy sufficient defensive forces. It is expected that the PLA will encircle Taiwan from the east and west, with aircraft carrier strike groups deployed on its east side to prevent interference from foreign forces; and on the west side is land-based aviation forces, which are the main force of the PLA to seize air supremacy in the Taiwan Strait.
Data map: Liaoning aircraft carrier formation
In the direction of the Ryukyu Islands, the U.S. military needs to deploy a sufficient number of Marines and surface-to-air missile forces to prevent missile attacks by the Plaster And send ground support forces to the island of Taiwan in time. In the airspace of the Bashi Strait, the United States needs to deploy wing-level fighter forces, including F-15, F-22 and F-35 fighters, and rely on auxiliary aircraft such as tankers, early warning aircraft, and reconnaissance aircraft to conduct uninterrupted combat patrols in the sea and airspace. In the direction of the Philippine Sea, the U.S. military needs to strengthen its own sea supply route, which is likely to deploy advanced nuclear submarines and conventional submarines in this area to attack the U.S. military's maritime transport routes, and the U.S. Navy needs to use destroyers, cruisers and fixed-wing anti-submarine aircraft in the air to strengthen anti-submarine operations in the Philippine Sea and build a strict anti-submarine network. Seth Clopsy concluded that the U.S. Army was mainly relied upon in the direction of the Ryukyu Islands, the U.S. Air Force in the bashi strait, and the U.S. Navy in the Philippine Sea.
Infographic: U.S. Navy surface ship formation
Second, an integrated air defense network is needed to protect Taiwan from the bombardment of various LAND-attack missiles of the People's Liberation Army. Seth Clopsy believes that the PLA's missile stock is large and diverse, and Taiwan's existing Patriot and Tianbow anti-aircraft missile systems cannot effectively intercept saturation-attack ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Because the PLA's ballistic missiles and cruise missiles are extremely accurate, they can destroy all taiwan's air bases in a very short period of time, and once the ground airfield is destroyed, Then Taiwan's air power will suffer a devastating blow. In this regard, the US media believes that the US military needs to strengthen the construction of Taiwan's air defense force, provide a more advanced anti-missile interception system, and avoid Taiwan's air force from suffering heavy losses at the beginning of the war.
Infographic: Rocket Force DF-15 ballistic missile
Data map: Taiwan Patriot air defense missile
Third, the United States must deploy a sufficient number of tankers in the western Pacific to allow U.S. warplanes to stay in the airspace near the Taiwan Strait for a longer period of time. Because U.S. air bases are generally far from Taiwan, the current size of air tankers is far from ensuring the continuous coverage of U.S. fighter jets in the Taiwan Strait, the Bashi Strait, and the Miyako Strait.
Data chart: US military tanker air refueling operations
Fourth, the U.S. military needs to assemble a sufficient number of fighter squadrons near Taiwan. The US media believes that since the PLA can concentrate the vast majority of fighters in the direction of Taiwan, unlike Russia, which only takes out a part of its fighters to deal with Ukraine, in the context of the equal strength of Sino-US air power, the side with numerical superiority will have a decisive advantage, so the US military must expand the size of its fighter force.
Data chart: J-20 fighter
Seth Clopsy believes that considering that the PLA may send all combat aircraft from the Eastern Theater and the Central Theater to the front line of the Taiwan Strait, the US military needs to deal with at least 30 squadrons or more PLA fighters, and if the PLA continues to draw fighters from other theaters, then the PLA fighters that the US military needs to deal with will be even larger. At present, Taiwan has 17 fighter squadrons, assuming that Taiwan's own missile defense system is powerful enough, after the first wave of missile attacks by the People's Liberation Army, Taiwan will have 12 fighter squadrons to survive, which requires the United States to replenish 18 fighter squadrons in time.
Data chart: Taiwan F-16 fighter
Seth Clopsy pointed out that the United States will send at least two carrier strike groups and an expeditionary strike group to the Taiwan Strait region, the two carrier strike groups will provide eight F/A-18E/F, F-35C fighter squadrons, and the expedition strike group will provide an F-35B fighter squadron. Of the remaining 9 fighter squadrons, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force could provide 4 squadrons, and the U.S. Marine Corps deployed in the Ryukyu Islands could provide 2 flying squadrons, so that the United States would need to deploy at least three fighter squadrons to Japan to counter the PLA's 30 fighter squadrons.
Infographic: U.S. Aircraft Carrier Strike Group
Infographic: U.S. carrier-based fighter jets
Finally, Seth Clopsy believes that in the cross-strait conflict, winning the air war against Taiwan will be a top priority, and the United States must be prepared to win this conflict and set up a no-fly zone in Taiwan if necessary.
The author believes that although Seth Clopsy is not the current senior officer of the US Navy, his remarks represent the attitude of the US military on the Taiwan Strait issue, and once the mainland reaches the point where it is necessary to use force to resolve the Taiwan issue, the US military will inevitably intervene by force.
But Seth Clopsy clearly underestimated the PLA's ability to maintain national unity and sovereign integrity. It is an established fact that the PLA has been preparing for nearly 30 years for the sake of a possible war for the reunification of the motherland, and the balance of military power on both sides of the strait has long been tilted toward the mainland. In the first round of firepower assault, the air base on the other side is bound to bear the brunt of it; the PLA's land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, long-range rocket artillery, and air-based cruise missiles, as well as precision guidance outside the defense zone, can paralyze all air defense missile positions on the other side in a short period of time, and carry out devastating strikes on various military airfields, destroying combat aircraft on the airfield runway on the airfield, and trying to save 12 fighter squadrons is tantamount to whimsy.
In addition, once the United States and Japan intervene in the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, then all us and Japanese air bases in the western Pacific will be hit by mainland ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, and there is no possibility that the United States and Japan will take off fighters from forward bases to support Taiwan. Even if there are sporadic fighters that can reach the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait, then the mainland J-20, J-16 and J-10C fighters can give full play to their performance advantages and snipe AMERICAN fighters from the direction of Ryukyu and bashi straits from a long distance with the support of early warning aircraft.
At present, the mainland's anti-access/area denial capabilities have been raised to new heights, and under the anti-aircraft carrier combat system composed of land-based DF-21D, DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles and air-based bombers, it is difficult for US aircraft carriers to approach the mainland's coastal waters, let alone to reach the Taiwan Strait with great swagger.
It may be that the weakness of the Russian military in Ukraine has given the former US deputy secretary of the Navy the idea that China's military strength is no more than that, which has led to the delusional law of setting up a no-fly zone in Taiwan. Russia's purpose in Ukraine is to demilitarize, using only a small part of the military force, while the mainland is to use the strength of the whole country to achieve the complete reunification of the motherland, which the United States must have a clear understanding. Underestimating China's determination and strength to achieve national reunification will only play with fire and self-immolation.