During the Asian session on Tuesday (April 26), U.S. oil is now trading at $98.60 a barrel; oil prices fell more than 3 percent on Monday, hitting a two-week low, with growing concerns about the outlook for global energy demand due to pandemic concerns; and the U.S. could raise interest rates against a basket of currencies to a two-year high, weighing on oil prices.
Intraday focus is on the US April Consultative Conference Consumer Confidence Index, wednesday 4:30 API data release.
Negative factors affecting oil prices
[The resumption of the Iranian nuclear negotiations is on the agenda]
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Khatibzadeh said the resumption of negotiations between the parties to the JCPOA is on the agenda. Khatibzadeh said Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahyan and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrelli agreed that the prolonged suspension of Iran's nuclear negotiations was not in line with the purpose of lifting sanctions against Iran and that "it is appropriate to resume face-to-face negotiations." Khatibzadeh said the resumption of Iran nuclear negotiations is on the agenda, but the location and level of negotiations have not yet been determined. Khatibzadeh said that the dialogue has not stopped since the suspension of the Iranian nuclear negotiations, and the outstanding issues between Iran and the United States are being resolved by the coordinator. But the United States has been delaying making political decisions.
【U.S. oil supply will increase by 1 million barrels/day】
U.S. oil and gas production is rising and will continue to rise to make up for the 1-1.5 million barrels of oil/day supply that has been reduced in the market since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. energy secretary said Monday.
U.S. Energy Secretary Graham told CNBC that U.S. oil supply will increase by about 1 million barrels per day, starting with the record six-month release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve from U.S. President Joe Biden.
The Biden administration expects domestic oil production to also increase in the coming months, which will help stabilize crude oil and gasoline prices. Commenting on the impact of the supply release on oil prices, Graham said: "This may be one of the reasons why prices are leveling off." Oil prices fell on Monday as the covid-19 pandemic was contained and interest rates could be raised in the United States.
Glenholm said the global and U.S. domestic oil markets could react if Europe bans imports of Russian crude. "If they do decide to impose some form of ban or a similar moderate ban, then there will undoubtedly be an impact on oil prices, as it will reduce the supply in the market further," she said. ”
American consumers are willing to bear those costs as a sacrifice the world has made as a result of a tougher stance on Russia, Glenhome said. But the Biden administration wants to make sure the impact is mitigated, "especially for lower-income people in the middle class, who really feel the pressure more than anybody else." ”
The dollar rose to a two-year high against a basket of currencies, weighing on oil prices, driven by the possibility of a sharp rate hike in the United States. A strong dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
[French Total Energy transports Abu Dhabi crude oil to Europe rarely]
According to traders and a shipping report on Monday, a shipping company owned by France's Total Energy made a rare temporary charter of an oil tanker to ship Abu Dhabi's crude oil to Europe in early May.
According to shipping reports, Total Energy's shipping company CSSSA has leased the Moscow Spirit Suez tanker, which will load 1 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil from the UAE's Jebel Dhanna port to the UK on May 1-3 at a 60-point world tanker rate.
After russia called it "special operations" in the conflict between Moscow and Ukraine, European buyers stopped buying Russian oil, and the arbitrage window for Middle Eastern crude oil to travel to Europe opened.
Traders said more Abu Dhabi crude vessel shipments to Europe are expected in the coming months as the EU prepares to impose more sanctions on Russian oil imports, potentially diverting some supplies from Asia.
[India's Russian crude oil purchases more than doubled from all-year last year]
In the two months since Russia invaded Ukraine, India has bought more than double the amount of crude oil it has bought from Russia in all of 2021, according to Reuters calculations, as Indian refineries snapped up discounted oil that other countries could not avoid.
Based on crude bids and information provided by traders, Reuters has ordered at least 40 million barrels of Russian oil since it began on Feb. 24, which will be shipped in the June season. India's total oil imports from Russia totaled 16 million barrels last year.
India is the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, with more than 85% of its 5 million bpd crude oil needs relying on imports. Indian refineries are buying cheaper Russian oil to partially offset higher official selling prices for some producers, such as Saudi Arabia, company sources said.
A refinery official, who asked not to be named, said, "We try to keep consumers out of price shocks, but we also need to protect our profits, so we are buying Russian oil," said a refinery official, who did not explicitly condemn Russia's actions despite calling for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.
Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said last Friday in his defense of India's oil imports from Russia that India buys only a small fraction of India's total oil demand.
Washington has said it has no objection to India buying Russian oil at a price below market price, but warned that a sharp increase in imports could hamper the U.S. response to the Russo-Ukrainian war. Analysts say India's oil imports from Russia are likely to decrease as European and U.S. sanctions are fully implemented in mid-May and late June, potentially affecting logistics.
【Global confirmed cases of COVID-19 exceeded 507.5 million】
According to WHO's latest real-time statistics, as of 17:22 Central European Daylight Time on April 25 (23:22 Beijing time on April 25), the global cumulative number of confirmed covid-19 cases 507501771, and the cumulative number of deaths 6220390. On the 25th, there were 348582 new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world, and 1227 new deaths.
In addition, recently, the United Kingdom and other places have occurred unexplained acute hepatitis in children, japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare issued a message on the 25th, saying that the first case of children in Japan may have suffered from this acute hepatitis.
Bullish factors affecting oil prices
U.S. emergency crude reserve inventories fell by about 2.88 million barrels in the week ended April 22, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories fell to 553.1 million barrels, the lowest level since 2002.
The United States and the United Kingdom both advised Zelenskiy not to speed up the negotiations.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said on the 25th that the United States and the United Kingdom have advised Zelenskiy not to speed up negotiations, but to make his position tougher every time. For the first time during the Talks in Istanbul, Russia received from the Ukrainian side a paper proposal signed by the head of its delegation, and although the proposal was not in the form of a treaty, but only an outline, the Russian side was ready to use the document as a basis. The Russian side quickly converted the elements of these proposals into "treaty genres" and forwarded the draft to the Ukrainian side. But then the Response from the Ukrainian side, unlike is Istanbul's proposal, is a huge step backwards.
[Russia demands that the United States stop shipping weapons to Ukraine]
Two senior officials from U.S. President Joe Biden's administration said during a visit to Kiev that the U.S. would reopen its embassy in Ukraine and pledged more military aid. At the same time, Russia warned Washington to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, while the war in eastern Ukraine continued.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin both said their ability to come to the Ukrainian capital was testimony to Ukraine's tenacity in forcing Moscow to abandon its offensive on Kiev last month.
The United States pledged $713 million in new aid to Ukraine and other countries in the region that are considered likely vulnerable to The Russian threat. The White House also warned of possible further sanctions against Russia.
An official said that if another $322 million in military aid is provided to Ukraine, the total amount of security assistance provided by the United States since Russia's invasion of Ukraine would reach about $3.7 billion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin slammed the West on Monday, saying it had failed to divide Russian society and accusing it of inciting Kiev to plot attacks on Russian journalists. Ukraine's security services have refuted Putin's remarks. Meanwhile, Ukraine's military command said Russia was trying to disrupt its allies' arms supply to Ukraine by bombing Ukraine's railway infrastructure.
Russia's defense ministry later said its missiles destroyed six railway facilities in the eastern Donbass region used to deliver foreign weapons to Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian television quoted the state-run Ukrainian Railways as saying five railway stations in western and central Ukraine were attacked on Monday and one person died.
[Nasdaq rises sharply after Twitter agrees to be acquired by Musk]
U.S. stocks rose on Monday as the Nasdaq closed sharply higher after Twitter agreed to a takeover offer by billionaire Musk, pushing growth stocks to rally in late trading. Twitter closed up 5.6 percent after the company announced it would be acquired by Musk. The deal will transfer control of the social media platform to the world's richest man.
The S&P 500 was down for most of the session, but rose after Twitter's announcement. The S&P 500 growth index closed up more than 1 percent, also reversing an earlier decline.
Dennis Dick, trader at Bright Trading LLC, said: "It can be seen that growth stocks want to rally all day long, but have been suppressed by the market. The news from Twitter gave the green light to start buying some growth stocks. Growth stocks have been in oversold territory for some time. ”
Nearly a third of S&P 500 constituents will report earnings this week. According to Refinit data, 77.5% of the 102 companies that have announced results so far have exceeded analyst expectations.
After a series of hawkish statements by policymakers, traders now expect the Fed to raise rates sharply this year to contain inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that he might support a 50 basis point rate hike in May and said he was open to exiting ultra-loose monetary policy in an "upfront force" manner.
Overall, the spread of the epidemic, the intensification of demand concerns, the leading decline in oil prices; the Iranian nuclear negotiations are expected to resume, and some countries are still buying Russian oil, helping the bears, many bearish effects, short-term oil prices or the risk of further decline.
This article originated from Huitong Network
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