Wen Observer Network columnist Shi Yang
Diplomatic and military observer, independent commentator
This week, the Chinese Navy has made frequent moves in its propaganda work. From the shocking release of the first aircraft carrier-themed propaganda film, to the official news that China's second amphibious assault ship, the Guangxi warship, and a number of Type 055 guided missile destroyers, as well as the Z-20 carrier-based helicopters on board, to the emergence of a mysterious shipborne new missile, the Chinese Navy, the world's second sea power, is making great strides in several areas. At the same time, on the Battlefield in Ukraine, as the war situation in Mariupol is coming to an end and the Russian-Ukrainian war situation is about to enter a new stage, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy once again put forward a huge demand for comprehensive military assistance to the EU, and the form in which the EU will respond will determine to some extent the possible direction of the future game between Russia and Ukraine.
The "General Direction" of the Chinese Navy
This week, starting with a missile launch video that looks very different from the previous types of missiles in the navy, the good news of the Chinese navy began an overwhelming "N combo": this missile sparked speculation at home and abroad about the progress and equipment of the Chinese Navy's anti-ship ballistic missile technology, followed by the training video of the second Type 075 amphibious assault ship "Guangxi" and the fifth Type 055 guided missile destroyer "Wuxi", and on Friday, after the release of the Chinese Navy's first aircraft carrier theme propaganda film, the "three tires, arrangements" appeared. The Easter egg almost indicates that a third Chinese aircraft carrier is coming.
This series of publicity materials conveys a lot of information, both at the technical level of naval equipment, as well as in the construction of the navy's active duty strength, and more importantly, in the future development plan of the navy. As a congratulatory gift for the 73rd anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy, these contents are also new messages that make strategic competitors on the other side of the ocean worth scratching their heads.
Among them, the emergence of the so-called Chinese Navy's ship-borne anti-ship ballistic missiles is undoubtedly a new bright spot. Although everyone tacitly accepts that this is an anti-ship ballistic missile, the name and specific performance of the bomb are still debated on the Internet. The two most common guesses are that the missiles are named Eagle Strike-20 and Eagle Strike 21, respectively, while other model name guesses are also not empty. To some extent, this speculation of "a hundred flowers blooming" also reflects the technological status of contemporary hypersonic weapon systems and the development trend of the 055 type guided missile destroyer weapon system.
From the technical development of hypersonic weapons, the most mainstream definition of "hypersonic weapons" in contemporary times mainly has three major technical directions, namely, double cone aircraft, glider aircraft and aspirated hypersonic aircraft, the three types of weapons have their own advantages and disadvantages in technology, involving overlapping but not exactly the same in the field of technical research, so for the three major countries of China, the United States and Russia, although there will be differences in the development of hypersonic weapons, but in the content of the trade-offs are "I all want" - Russia has a double cone "dagger." "Air-fired hypersonic missiles, glider"Vanguard" strategic missiles and aspirated "Zircon" hypersonic anti-ship missiles; the CPS and LRHW developed by the US military use a double cone hypersonic warhead, the AGM-183A (ARRW) uses a glider vehicle, and the HACM uses an aspirated hypersonic distance; China's hypersonic weapons development plan, although not disclosed, is currently developing three types of weapons at the same time, and several models have entered the service phase.
It is precisely for this reason that in the development of sea-based hypersonic weapons, it is not surprising that multiple models have progressed to similar experimental stages in about the same time, and it is reasonable that these models "share" some common technical features and even product modules because of systematic development planning. Even other products that are not opposing strike weapons may have similar characteristics externally due to the same need for partial ballistic flight. Just as the U.S. Navy's "Standard-6" can be used as an anti-aircraft missile to carry out anti-ship strikes, India's "Terrestrial" ballistic missiles can be used as a basis for the development of anti-missile interceptors, and different types of hypersonic missiles and even anti-missile interceptors may have some similar or even consistent components.
Due to the different technical characteristics of different types of hypersonic weapons, they are often not an either-or substitution relationship in naval battles, ballistic anti-ship missiles, although their terminal mobility is relatively limited, it is relatively easy to find, but the strike distance is long, the flight speed is high, and it also has the characteristics of the offensive direction of the strike from the zenith; the glider's superb weapon has a low flight speed and strong end maneuverability, but the size of the warhead is limited and the lethality is insufficient; the suction type high flying height is relatively low, the technical difficulty is high, but the maneuverability is the best. And can be varied. If these weapons can be coordinated with each other, they can make the defender's combat ships exhausted in different defensive states or even lose sight of each other, and jointly maximize the strike effect.
The "accidental exposure" of the new ship-based missiles and the appearance of the Z-20 carrier-based helicopter are to some extent closely related to the loading of the 055 series of guided missile destroyers: This week, in the report of the actual combat training of a certain naval ship training center, there were news and pictures of the 055 destroyers Lhasa, Anshan and Wuxi participating in the training. In addition to the Nanchang and Dalian warships that were previously listed, 5 of the 8 Type 055 ships that have been built have been equipped. According to the law of general equipment development, the maturity and inclusion of relevant supporting weapons and equipment are naturally a natural occurrence. As the most advanced large surface warship in service in the Chinese Navy, the Type 055 guided-missile destroyer has made great technological progress over the previous 052D in various fields. The manifestation of this progress in armament is obviously not just a simple numerical advantage of 112 units to 64 units. After the installation of various new-generation ship-based weapon systems on the Type 055 destroyer, it will not only greatly enhance the combat capabilities of these new generation warships, but also become an important kit in the upgrading of various previous-generation equipment in the future, so that the Navy's combat capabilities will be improved as a whole.
When it comes to the formation of the combat power of the Type 055 guided missile destroyer, it is necessary to mention some news about cruisers in the world in the past two weeks, one is that the Russian Navy "Moscow" exploded and sank during the mission in the Black Sea, and the other is that the US Navy is beginning to consider retiring all active "Ticonderoga" class guided missile cruisers in the next 5 years. As the only two countries in the world equipped with cruisers, the actions of the United States and Russia in this field are undoubtedly related to the survival of cruisers, a ship with a history of hundreds of years. For the U.S. Navy, they can replace the former with the Arleigh Burke Flight 3 guided-missile destroyer after the Ticonderoga class is decommissioned, and achieve the phased goal of replacing cruisers with the newly developed DDG(X) after 2030. And until then, unless they usher in their own descendants, the world's most powerful destroyer, the champion of the competition, it is likely that they will wear these 10,000-ton drives in East Asia steadily.
In the field of amphibious assault ships and aircraft carriers, with the commissioning of the second Type 075 amphibious assault ship "Guangxi" ship in the plan, the Chinese Navy is only one ship away from catching up with the French Navy and becoming the second largest amphibious assault ship in the world, and considering that the tonnage class performance of the Type 075 is far superior to that of france's "Northwest Wind" class, the Chinese Navy's amphibious assault combat capability is obviously more powerful than France. As for the third aircraft carrier of the Chinese Navy, which has long been an open secret, the final construction process before launching is currently underway at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai. As the first real "supercarrier" equipped with catapults of the Chinese Navy, this aircraft carrier not only means a new beginning of the Aircraft Carrier force of the Chinese Navy, but also means that in addition to the United States, a second country has finally joined the Super Aircraft Carrier Club with its own strength, and at that time, the western Pacific sea full of advanced warships from various countries will naturally become more lively.
Ukraine's "Second Round of War"
This week, the situation facing Ukrainian troops in this region is deteriorating dramatically as Russian forces and the Donetsk People's Army operate in the Mariupol region. According to the situation reported by Russian Defense Minister Shoigu to Russian President Putin on the 21st, the Russian army and the Donbass armed forces have "liberated" the city of Mariupol, and the remaining Ukrainian militants are still entrenched in the Azov steel plant area. According to the current arrangements of the Russian army, the Russian army will blockade the Ukrainian army in the last industrial area such as the Mariupol Iron and Steel Plant, and at the same time carry out firepower attack instead of intending to attack strongly, but choose to provide a passage for the remaining 2,000 or so Ukrainian troops to leave according to the actual situation.
Strictly speaking, there are still thousands of Ukrainian troops have not been eliminated, an area of 5 square kilometers of steel plant has not been occupied, the Russian army's "occupation" of Mariupol is somewhat unworthy of the name, but the Russian army for this last steel plant is not willing to hit iron while it is hot, but also shows the Russian army's cognition of the occupation of this area: First, the terrain of the steel plant is complex, not only a large number of steel and reinforced concrete complex buildings, but also complex underground facilities, plus a large number of Ukrainian troops, it takes a lot of troops to completely liquidate it. At the same time, in the short house-by-house battle, the Russian army not only could not exert its firepower superiority in technical weapons, but also suffered a lot of casualties. At present, it is tens of kilometers away from other units of the Ukrainian army, and it is impossible to obtain support through ground or air, and it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to mobilize enough mechanized troops and rescue the place in an environment without air superiority. According to the information of the Russian army that the local Ukrainian army only has half a month of supply, the Ukrainian army cannot face the siege of the Russian army without restriction. For the Russian army, which has basically no shortage of equipment on the Battlefield in Ukraine, but obviously lacks available combat strength, it is not impossible to use large-scale troops to capture steel plants, but it is "unnecessary".
This method of "encircling but not fighting" after hitting a fortified area in urban offensive operations is no stranger to observers who have observed military operations around the world in recent years. In the second half of the Syrian civil war, when the Syrian government forces supported by the Russian army launched offensive operations against the Syrian opposition forces in Aleppo, Idlib, Eastern Ghouta and other areas, they often carried out "courtesy out" negotiations with the opposition armed forces when the attack reached a certain level, and the final result of such negotiations was often that hundreds or even thousands of armed opposition personnel laid down their weapons and easily sat on the arranged buses to leave the war zone, and the Syrian government forces could control the relevant areas while reducing losses. The roots of this strategy of the Syrian army are basically the same as those of the Russian army, that is, the Syrian army also lacked elite infantry units during this period and was unwilling to lose them in the fierce urban street battles. However, the situation of the Russo-Ukrainian war is fundamentally different from the Syrian civil war, and whether the Russian military siege can achieve the expected effect actually needs to be further observed.
With the basic stability of the war in the Mariupol area, the Russian troops who had previously fought here, except for the troops who remained behind to blockade and monitor the steel mills, could basically temporarily withdraw from the battle and go to the rear area to replenish the soldiers and technical equipment lost in the previous operations, and at the same time repair the troops to facilitate the subsequent follow-up operations. Similar redeployments have been staged in the direction of Kiev before, except that the Russian army in Kiev is redeployed after the retreat, and in Mariupol, the Russian army is redeployed after the local defenders have been basically eliminated at the rear of the front. If the Russian army puts these troops into the eastern front of Ukraine or the flank of the Zaporizhia direction to threaten the Ukrainian army in the future, it is obviously not good news for the Ukrainian army.
For the Ukrainian army, although Ukraine has deeply explored the war potential of Ukraine itself through large-scale and thorough mobilization at home, the shortage of technical equipment in the Ukrainian army is therefore more prominent. Before the start of the war, the Ukrainian army was generally tight in technology and equipment due to the attrition of 2014-15 and the continuous expansion of the army in the following 7 years, although the Soviet heritage in Ukraine was excavated on a large scale. After the war, although the small-scale infiltration and destruction of the Russian logistics line by the Ukrainian army were not lacking in highlights, the loss of technology and equipment was also quite serious. After the withdrawal of the Russian army, it was able to replenish the troops through the soviet-era second-class equipment in various warehouses, and it was much more difficult for Ukraine to restore the technical equipment of these troops and even equip the newly mobilized troops. In a way, aid from the West is even the only viable channel.
In this case, it is not difficult to understand why Ukraine's list of military assistance needs to the EU is so "lion's mouth". First, the list of military aid needs recently circulated on the Internet was submitted on March 11, when Ukraine was in a "dangerous moment" when Kiev was threatened, and the war situation was far more dangerous than it looks now, and there was a sense of urgency about the scale of demand for weapons and equipment; second, a series of sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries also made Ukraine have a significant overestimation of its own status. In this way, it is not difficult to understand that Ukraine did this kind of thing when begging along the street, instead of two bowls of rotten meat noodles, but opened its mouth and began to recite the traditional cross-talk "Reporting the Name of the Dish".
It is also because of the "uncool" state of this military aid demand that we can understand the many bizarre contents of the list and the many more bizarre operations that European countries have subsequently made around it. For example, the list asks the EU for 36 Su-27 and 36 Su-27M fighters, up to 20 sets of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems, and 12 sets of "beech" anti-aircraft missiles. In addition to a small sample of the United States and a small number of S-300s in the former Warsaw Pact countries of the European Union, other equipment can only be obtained by the EU from sources such as Algeria, Syria, Venezuela, Belarus and even China. Such a demand, not to mention that the EU cannot meet it, ukraine can show that they have no idea what they can get. One of Ukraine's needs for main battle tanks in the list clearly states that 200 Leopard tanks are needed, and the follow-up to this story leads to a joke that Germany once discussed the need to assist Ukraine in the 1960s. After all, people with a little military common sense know that Germany has developed two generations of Leopard tanks with a huge technical gap after the war, which is not at all "all Leopard" such a sloppy eye can solve. The fact that such a request was made and that it was responded to show that Kiev really did not understand what to say, and that it was likely to show how perfunctory Germany was willing to provide military aid to Ukraine.
Judging from the current situation, the EU and NATO countries still provide Ukraine with some heavy equipment assistance "within its capabilities". The Czech Republic has aided Ukraine with 10 T-72M tanks and 10 BVP-1 infantry fighting vehicles; the United States has aided Ukraine with some heavy equipment, including 155 mm towed howitzers and M113 armored vehicles; France has generously invited Ukraine to send people to learn to operate the "Caesar" self-propelled guns, but on the one hand, it has not said how many guns, and on the other hand, the scale of training only 40 people has made people pessimistic about the number of aid guns Slovenia intends to aid Ukraine with its M84 tank (Yugoslav production version of the T-72), but on a more thodyal premise: to get the latest Leopard 2 tank and boxer armored personnel carrier from Germany as compensation... Even if the weapons that have been received at present are added up, it is difficult to organize them into 2 full mechanized brigades for combat, and what role can these international equipment from different sources and different states play on the battlefield... It's hard to look forward to.
Source | Observer Network