On Friday, the first quarterly report of mainland public funds was disclosed. Due to the market downturn in the first quarter, the overall decline of public active equity products, according to the statistics of "Red Weekly", as of the close of april 21, the number of products with a drawdown of more than 30% in the year reached 399, and many products were controversial due to the excessive retracement of the net value. Therefore, in this year's first quarterly report, many fund managers also added product drawdown reflections in their outlook.
However, for those long-distance runners among public fund managers, prejudgment and reflection are focused on the long term, they do not focus on the judgment of the sector, but focus on the action of "investment" itself, which is more inclined to the thinking of investment philosophy. Zhang Kun, a well-known fund manager, made an image analogy in a quarterly report: "Although in the short term, it seems that the weather catches our attention and determines the environment, in the long run, what really determines the environment of a region is the climate." We believe that although the short-term market faces many difficulties, it also provides a fairly attractive price for long-term investors. ”
Then the first quarterly report fully presented the position adjustment route, investors pay more attention to Zhang Kun, Glen, Liu Yanchun and other top-notch fund managers, the overall look at the star fund managers in the first quarter of the warehouse liquor, new energy, warehouse real estate, resources, financial stocks.
Star fund managers "attack and defend" ideas differentiation:
Liu Gesong and Li Xiaoxing have high positions to improve earnings
Wang Zonghe's low position wants to control the retracement
"Red Weekly" found that the investment ideas of the top stars under the weak market also have certain differences, some people are heavily positioned stocks to wait for the opportunity, and the other part of the people are actively adjusting their positions and changing shares in the bottom range of the market, trying to lay the groundwork for the annual performance. Examples of the latter, such as Wang Zonghe, who is known as a national fund manager, found that in his many products, the number of heavy positions in Guizhou Moutai (600519) was maintained unchanged, while the new bank stocks were newly adjusted to replace the heavy positions of the new energy category, the most obvious is that Penghua innovated the future, and the number of heavy bank stocks increased from one to 5.
In contrast, in 2019, Liu Gesong has not changed much overall, and he still emphasizes optimism about high-end manufacturing, such as the growth of GF small caps he manages, compared with the first quarterly report and last year's four quarterly reports, Liu Gesong only made two adjustments in heavy stocks, that is, replaced the previous season's BOE and Gaode Infrared (002414) with Jinlang Technology (300763) and Jianfan Biological (300529), and he dared to re-allocate single heavy stocks. The first two heavy stocks in the quarter, Shengbang Shares (300661) and JA Technology (002459), both exceeded the upper limit of 10%. Dare to increase the position against the market is not a minority, Qiu Dongrong in the management of four products three positions rose, Harvest Ruixi, the famous torrent management of Harvest Ruixi, the end of the first quarter stock position reached 95.46%, breaking through the upper limit of 95%.
Although the performance of equity funds in the first quarter dragged down by the market is difficult to say, the top stars are still full of confidence in the future market. For example, Zhu Shaoxing, the top of The Rich Country, added warehouses to Guizhou Moutai in the first quarter, Ningde Times (300750), Wuliangye (000858), Luxshare Precision (002475), mindray Medical (300760). "If we look at a longer time dimension, there is no point in being overly pessimistic about the market." It is time for equity investors to take risks with volatility and skill. He said in the quarterly report.
Chi Yunfei, a fund analyst at Shanghai Securities, pointed out that fund managers as a whole have strengthened their layout in three major directions. First, benefiting from the "steady growth" policy, liquidity improvement, boom improvement, and lower valuation sectors, such as banks, real estate, construction, etc., the position of this type of industry has increased the most, and the overall position of the bank with the largest change has increased by 1.94% compared with the end of last year. Second, benefiting from the concept of price increases, some industries in the pro-cyclical period, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, chemicals, coal, non-ferrous metals, etc., the overall position of these industries increased by 2.48% compared with the previous quarter. Third, the valuation has fallen sharply, but the policy is strongly supported and the industry boom is still in the sector, such as pharmaceuticals, new energy and other industries. However, fund managers' positions in TMT, consumer and other sectors have declined to a certain extent.
In addition, affected by the sluggish performance of A-shares in the first quarter of this year, public fund managers suffered a lot, and some people maintained high positions against the market and wanted to maintain a better net worth level, but many people reduced their positions with the intention of controlling the drawdown.
"Incomplete statistics, the investment strategies of the top-down flexible allocation fund that pays more attention to the timing of large-scale assets and the partial debt hybrid fund that pays more attention to steady returns are relatively conservative, and the average stock position has dropped by 1.03% and 0.17% respectively. Instead, the positions of partial stock hybrid funds and ordinary equity funds, which are more focused on winning long-term relative returns, increased by 4.75% and 0.97% respectively from the previous quarter. Chi Yunfei told reporters.
The overall adjustment to heavy stocks is not large, but it has increased the stock position, so the practice of increasing the position against the trend comes from Liu Gesong of GF Fund. He is currently managing 6 funds, the reporter found that in addition to the diversified emerging position of 90.75%, the remaining 5 funds he managed the stock position is more than 93%, close to the top grid operation.
In Liu Gesong's quarterly report of heavy stocks, there have been multiple targets holding more than 10% of the shares, which is not common in previous quarterly reports, specific targets are innovative and upgraded Guolian shares (603613) and Shengbang shares, small-cap growth shengbang shares and JA Technology. There are also some targets that are close to the 10% shareholding ceiling, such as Shengbang shares in the diversified emerging and dual-engine upgrades. According to the reporter's statistics of all 60 heavy stocks in the quarter, the new names are only Great Wall Motors (601633) and Jinlang Technology, and the rest are old faces.
In a quarterly report, Liu Gesong said that the market has a clear bottom feature, and it is not pessimistic to look at the future from a medium- to long-term perspective. After the adjustment in the first quarter, the valuation level of many industries has returned to the position at the end of 2018, and the second quarter may usher in a structural market, firmly optimistic about the high-end manufacturing industry unchanged.
Also raising the high position to attack is Li Xiaoxing of Yinhua Fund, who currently has 10 funds he is involved in managing, 7 of which are only co-managed by three people, and 3 of which are co-managed by him and Zhang Ping. The stock positions of these three products exceeded 90% on March 31, and the highest equity position was 92.27% of Yinhua Shengshi Select. Other parts of the heavy position of products with major consumption remained constant, but Yinhua Xinyi became the most variable of his products.
Specifically, Li Xiaoxing replaced the Salt Lake shares (000792), Tianqi Lithium (002466), Yanghe shares (002304), Wuliangye and Dahua shares (002236) in the heavy warehouses in the previous quarter with Jinshan Office, Tianci Materials (002709), Huichuan Technology (300124), Oriental Yuhong (002271), and Guizhou Moutai at the end of the first quarter. Consumer stocks select food and beverage, social services, consumer building materials, home appliances and CXO industrial chain; technology stocks select electric vehicles, military and computers. ”
In contrast, some fund managers tend to be cautious in the downturn, such as Wang Zonghe. The fund he is currently managing alone is the top 10. From the perspective of stock positions, in addition to the position of 81% of the two products, the remaining 8 are at the level of 60%, and the lowest position is 42.78% of Penghua Industry Selection.
Judging from the changes in the heavy position industry, the cautious and defensive mentality is revealed. Among them, the color of new energy has gradually weakened, and large financial bank stocks have become Wang Zonghe's new heavy position industry. On the basis of only Bank of Ningbo in the previous quarter, ICBC, CCB, China Merchants Bank and Bank of China were added this quarter, and in addition to CMB, the other three bank stocks have achieved stock price increases in the current year. He said in the quarterly report that he had a certain estimate of the state of the market in the first quarter, but the net value still suffered some losses.
The core stocks of the public evergreen heavy position are stable:
Zhu Shaoxing is firmly optimistic about the subdivision leader
Zhou Weiwen and Xu Lirong slightly changed the growth target
Fund manager Evergreen's investment ideas every quarter, investors are also very concerned. For example, Zhu Shaoxing, Zhou Weiwen and Xu Lirong have all served for more than 15 years, which is rare among fund managers with frequent changes in the mainland.
Zhu Shaoxing, the most senior, has a clear idea of adjusting his position in the first quarter of this year, adding half of the heavy stocks in the previous quarter, using The medicine Ming Kangde (603259) and Oriental Yuhong to replace the national porcelain materials (300285) and Changchun High-tech (000661) in the previous season's heavy positions, and its Chinese porcelain materials are his long-favored stocks, while reducing the position of Weier shares (603501), Yili shares (600887) and Ningbo Bank, but the latter two of the reductions have fallen by less than 10% this year.
In his quarterly report, he emphasized that the investment idea has not changed, and in the current macro context, we will still pay attention to the texture of listed companies, hoping that the production and operation of the investment target will have a stronger robustness (robustness, robustness, and the key to the survival of the system in abnormal and dangerous situations). Among the core assets, the valuation attractiveness of a considerable number of high-quality underlying assets has increased significantly.
Ranked after Zhu Shaoxing in terms of office is Xu Lirong, whose products have been controlled within 20% so far this year. Taking its management of Guofu China as an example, in the first quarter, the heavy stocks replaced Montage Technology, Ping An of China and Weichai Power (000338) with Oriental Yuhong, Feike Electric Appliances (603868) and Maiwei Shares (300751), especially the first two of the new two became the top two heavy stocks in the first quarter, and Feike Electric achieved a rise of more than 10% against the market.
However, the "Red Weekly" reporter counted all 5 products he is currently in charge, and the overlap of heavy stocks is not high, only Oriental Wealth (300059), Bank of Ningbo, China Merchants Bank, Satellite Chemical (002648) 4 companies are listed.
In the quarterly report, Xu Lirong said that the market has truly entered the era of first having bull stocks and then having a bull market, that is, the characteristics of chasing up and killing down are more obvious, which means that opportunities are constantly emerging for contrarian investors, and the only thing that is needed is in-depth research and understanding of the company and enough patience and confidence.
Zhou Weiwen, a famous Celebrant in China and Europe who has just completed 15 years and has dragged on for eight years, has a clearer and clearer investment idea, and he clearly stated in the quarterly report that the investment idea is "good industry chooses Alpha, and the dilemma reversal industry chooses Beta". He already has 3 products in charge to achieve a doubling of incumbency returns. Focusing on the new blue chips of Celea Europe, which has the highest return on the job, the first quarter report of Farah Electronics (600563), Makihara Shares (002714), Lixun Precision, COSCO Haineng (600026) replaced the luzhou laojiao (000568), Songcheng Performing Arts (300144), Fuyao Glass (600660), Hengli Petrochemical (600346) in the previous season, and the position adjustment was mixed, of which Farah Electronics and Luxshare Precision fell by a large margin during the year, but Makihara and COSCO Haineng still achieved a stock price increase.
At the same time, among the 4 products managed by Zhou Weiwen alone, CEIBS Insights held the best in one year. The most distinctive feature of this sub-new fund, which was established at the end of October last year, is that it has opened a position in Tencent and Meituan, and occupies the position of the first and second largest heavy stocks. In addition, HKEX also managed to enter the top ten and ranked ninth. A similar favor for Hong Kong stock scene also appeared in the two years of China-Europe ingenuity selection that he managed alone, in addition to the first two heavy positions for Tencent and Meituan, the Hong Kong stocks that entered the top ten in the first quarter also included China Resources Beer, Xuhui Yongsheng Service and COSCO Haizhi. In this regard, he said in the summary of the quarterly report: "The leading Internet stocks in Hong Kong stocks have shown their investment value after being suppressed by policy uncertainty. We will dynamically adjust the allocation ratio of the plate according to the future profit growth rate and valuation of the relevant industries. ”
The core of the "drinking and taking medicine" top stream configuration is still in the faucet:
Zhang Kun added Wuliangye and Luzhou Old Cellar in a small way
Glen's new entry into Zhifei jiacang Aier, Mindray
For the top stars who became famous before the new energy era, the idea of "drinking and taking medicine" has cultivated a number of stars at the tip of the pyramid, such as Zhang Kun, Xiao Nan, Liu Yanchun, the liquor kings who are well known to investors, and Ge Lan, Zhao Bei and Yuan Fang, who are nicknamed the three sisters of medicine by investors.
First of all, looking at the liquor side, several top streams still focus on the three leading stocks, and have limited enthusiasm for second-tier liquor stocks, but their attitudes may vary due to the valuation of individual stocks. For Moutai, Zhang Kun and Liu Yanchun both chose to reduce their positions slightly, from 3.2 million shares to 3.153 million shares in E Fangda Blue Chip Select, and Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth reduced the shares from 2.4615 million shares to 2.2534 million shares.
However, the two have different attitudes towards Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, Liu Yanchun added Wuliangye to maintain the same number of heavy stocks in Luzhou Laojiao, while Zhang Kun added a small amount to both.
In the previous earnings seasons, the largest number of liquor in the top ten heavy warehouses was once Penghua China 50, but this season it turned to Xiao Nan's E Fangda consumer industry stock. Not only are the top four heavy stocks accounting for more than 8% of the stocks liquor stocks (of which the three major leaders plus Shanxi Fenjiu (600809)), but Yanghe and Gujing Tribute Liquor (000596) appear together in the top ten heavy stocks, and the overall liquor companies account for more than half. In addition to liquor stocks, Xiao Nan Fund's other focus in the season was coal, forming a dual pattern of liquor + coal.
Looking at the pharmaceutical end that continues to hover at a low ebb, "First Sister of Medicine" Gülen has almost no change for the target of heavy positions, in her masterpiece Ceiblia Medical Health, 9 of the top ten heavy stocks are consistent with the previous season, and she only replaced Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical (603456) with Zhifei Bio (300122). The only target of the reduction is WuXi AppTec, the number one heavy stock, and at the same time, it has increased its position in Aier Ophthalmology (300015), Tigermed (300347), Mindray Medical, and Panzai Zhen (600436).
In the quarterly report, she said that in the long-term optimistic core innovative drugs, innovative devices, innovative industry (300832) chain, medical services and consumer medical and other directions have been focused on layout. In the segment, she highlighted that the innovation-related market is far from touching the ceiling of the domestic market.
In the new starting point of its management, Heavy Warehouse Gloria (002821); heavy warehouse WuXi AppTec in the Central European Alpha Blend, Research Select Heavy Warehouse Aier Ophthalmology and WuXi AppTec.
Also determined to be optimistic about WuXi AppTec and Gloria Ying is zhao Bei, a famous player of ICBC Credit Suisse, who is also determined to be optimistic about WuXi AppTec and Gloria Ying, and in the cutting-edge medical and pension industry of the ecmedic theme she manages alone, the first two heavy positions are WuXi AppTec and Gloria Ying. Taking Frontier Medical as an example, the top four heavy positions of this season are exactly the same as the previous season, with 8 heavy stocks following the list of the previous season, and the two changes are that China Resources Sanjiu (000999) and Huadong Pharmaceutical (000963) replaced Puluo Pharmaceutical (000739) and Changhong Technology (300151).
However, unlike Gülen's increase in most of the heavy stocks, Zhao Bei has carried out a reduction operation on most of the heavy stocks, and in the frontier medical treatment, the only targets for the increase are Medici and Gloria Ying. In the middle of the quarter, she pointed out: "CXO's fundamental high boom trend is maintained, and medical services, pharmacies and consumer goods are affected by a certain degree of epidemic impact, but the overall impact is controllable, and short-term shocks do not affect long-term business trends and competitiveness." The market style is still not conducive to growth stocks, but the market was once overly worried about geopolitical factors, which also brought attractive undervalued buying points to pharmaceutical growth stocks represented by CXO. ”
New energy, semiconductor star against the market to increase the warehouse:
Cui Chenlong and Li Rui "bottomed out" the industrial chain leader
Semiconductor star Cai Songsong position high concentration operation
For many public newcomers who are among the "traffic stars" in 2021 with new energy and semiconductors, for the first time this year, they are facing a sharp drawdown and a shrinking management scale. Cui Chenlong, last year's public champion, is undoubtedly one that has attracted much market attention. The net value of Qianhai Open Source Public Utilities and Qianhai Open Source New Economy managed by him in the first quarter were retraced by 21.65% and 15.35% respectively, and the scale of management also shrank by about 5.737 billion yuan and 1.765 billion yuan, respectively, to 20.076 billion yuan and 12.497 billion yuan, respectively.
But Cui Chenlong chose to buy more and more falling. In terms of positions, utility equity positions rose to 93.84%. The main targets for the warehouse are Ewell Lithium Energy (300014), China Electric Power, China Resources Power and other standards. Among them, the number of shares held by Ewell Lithium Energy increased from 12.8378 million shares at the end of last year to 20.7161 million shares; CATL was also increased to the position of the top ten heavy stocks.
Cui Chenlong once said in an interview with Red Weekly that he is optimistic about investment opportunities in the new energy field in the next few decades. In the first quarterly report, he once again stressed: "Firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities around the core main line of the energy revolution of human society." ”
Also raising the stock position to increase the position of new energy is Li Rui, a fund manager with the theme of oriental new energy vehicles. In the case of the fund's scale from 22.441 billion yuan to 18.582 billion yuan, it slightly increased the fund's stock position from 93.54% to 93.88%, and increased the position of leading companies in the new energy vehicle industry chain such as Cataltime, Enjie (002812), BYD (002594), Huayou Cobalt (603799), etc., and the concentration of the top ten heavy stocks also increased from 41.8% to 47.65%.
However, the short-term challenge of investing in new energy is also huge, and Wang Di, manager of the Rongtong New Energy Vehicle Fund, frankly said that he is worried that the price rise at the main upstream end has led to greater cost pressure on the whole industry chain. However, in contrast, he believes that the photovoltaic industry is an area with high certainty of growth this year, and the obvious release of silicon production capacity from the second half of the year to next year will form a significant pull on the demand for large ground power stations. Therefore, the fund increased its positions in the photovoltaic field in the first quarter of 300274 and Longji shares (601012), while reducing the positions of Enjie shares and Ningde Times related to new energy vehicles.
Compared with the different choices of new energy fund addition and reduction, semiconductor star Cai Songsong has maintained a consistent operation of high position and high concentration in the growth of his representative work Sino Analytica. Among them, the stock position reached 91.18%, a new high in 13 quarters, while the concentration of the top ten heavy stocks fell slightly to 83.41%, and the shareholding side, as usual, only prefer semiconductors, its top ten heavy stocks in addition to the original shares -U replaced by Shanghai silicon industry -U, the other 9 heavy stocks have not changed, and the Weier shares, Gigabit Innovation (603986), Zhuoshengwei (300782) and other targets have also been increased.
For the reasons for the increase, Cai Songsong said in a quarterly report: "At present, buying these high-quality core assets may have to bear short-term pain, but in the long run, it often has higher returns." And he believes that under the big wave of domestic substitution, the long-term prosperity of the semiconductor industry will not be easily changed.
Undervalued values benefit from cyclical stocks:
Qiu Dongrong, Huang Hai and others continue to be optimistic about real estate stocks
Energy sectors such as coal are hardly optimistic for a long time
Representative such as Wanjia's fund manager Huang Hai, its management of 3 products with a yield of about 30%, in the market downturn in the first quarter, the performance is very eye-catching. Among them, the real estate stocks such as Poly Development (600048), New Town Holdings (601155), gemdale group (600383) and other real estate stocks in the wanjia macro timing and multi-strategy rose by more than 10%. The fund has favored real estate since its inception in 2017, and Huanghai has maintained this trait since taking over in September 2020. However, due to the long-term weakness of real estate stocks, the fund's performance in the previous two years has lagged behind. The rebound opportunity of real estate stocks this year, the fund can be described as a raised eyebrow.
Also heavily invested in real estate stocks is Yau Dongrong of Zhonggeng Fund, gemdale group ranked as its 9th largest heavy stock, in addition, he is more optimistic about the central enterprise real estate company, and added the Overseas Development of Hong Kong Stocks to the position of the 7th largest heavy stock. In Qiu Dongrong's view, the leading companies of central enterprise housing enterprises have the advantages of high credit and low financing costs. He optimistically said in a quarterly report that the valuation of real estate stocks is extremely low, and there is still good return potential after the real estate market stabilizes in the future.
In addition to the above-mentioned Huanghai, Qiu Dongrong of Zhonggeng Fund, Jiang Cheng of Zhongtai Asset Management, and Cao Mingchang of Ceiblia Fund all chose to increase their positions in the real estate sector in the first quarter. However, the specific preferences of fund managers in real estate stocks are not the same.
Jiang Cheng chose the leading Vanke A in zhongtai xingyuan value preferred funds, and the reason was also underestimated. And Cao Mingchang's gemdale group, which has a heavy position in funds such as CEIBS Growth Preferred Returns, is also a member of the leading real estate company "Zhaobao Wanjin". In an interview with Red Weekly, he once said: "There is an Alpha opportunity in the real estate industry. After experiencing the market reshuffle, the future pattern of the industry will be clearer, the share of leading real estate stocks will increase, and the profit will be better. ”
In addition to the real estate in the cyclical stocks, coal stocks have also become heavy stocks in many funds, and have brought great returns to related funds. For example, the stock price of Pingmei Shares (601666), which is in the Yellow Sea's Wanjia Macro Timing and Multi-Strategy, doubled in the first quarter, and the shares of Shanmei International (600546) and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) also rose by 68.09% and 50.18% respectively. Although the sharp increase in coal stocks in the first quarter has a certain timing implication, the macro timing multi-strategy fund launched by Wanjia may also want to take the timing fund as a certain feature of the company. However, for the next investment in coal stocks, Huang Hai did not show obvious optimism, he only said that he insisted on value stocks in the first quarter and made moderate structural adjustments.
Not only Huanghai, but also some other fund managers achieved positive returns by investing in coal stocks in the first quarter, but they also tacitly chose to "close wheat" for the long-term investment value of the sector. For example, Zhang Heng, the fund manager of Wanjia, and Li Kun, who has included Pingmei shares and China Shenhua (601088) into heavy stocks.
In this regard, Chi Yunfei pointed out: "Fund managers generally adjust the 'track' from top to bottom according to factors such as macroeconomics and industry prosperity, and it is more common not to express views on a specific industry in the future." It can be seen that most of the fund managers who invested in coal in the first quarter chose to increase their positions in coal stocks under the background of reduced market style preferences under macroeconomic pressure and the overseas war pushing up energy prices. External uncertainties remain in the future.
Of course, there are also fund managers who have already reduced their positions in the coal sector in the first quarter, such as Zhonggeng Value Pilot managed by Yau Dongrong, which transferred coal stocks such as Yankuang Energy (600188) and Orchid Kechuang (600123) out of the top ten heavy stocks in the first quarter of this year. Instead, it is to increase the position of Hong Kong stocks in the Internet, oil and other fields, and continue to heavily invest in real estate.
This article originated from the Securities Market Red Weekly
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