After the epidemic, the economy has strengthened, and the overall expectation of growth stocks has declined
— Market Outlook —
After the epidemic, the economy has strengthened, and the overall expectation of growth stocks has declined
On April 20, the market oscillated lower throughout the day, and the ChiNext board led the decline to create a new low of adjustment, closing the Shanghai index down 1.35%, the Shenzhen component index down 2.07%, and the ChiNext index down 3.66%. Individual stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 3300 stocks in the two cities fell. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen was 820.7 billion yuan, 41.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Northbound funds sold 5.288 billion yuan unilaterally throughout the day, of which the Shanghai Stock Connect net sold 3.286 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Connect net sold 2.001 billion yuan.
On the plate, food and beverage, tourism and travel are stronger, and nearly six industries in the 31 Shenwan first-level industries have risen, all of which are consumption-style plates; the agricultural sector continues to strengthen, and the agricultural development and seed industry has 3 boards. In terms of decline, many weighted stocks on the ChiNext board fell sharply, ningde times fell more than 7%, Mindray medical fell nearly 9%, and Sunshine Power fell to a halt; in addition, the real estate sector was adjusted again, affected by the adjustment of the commodity futures market, coal, steel, nonferrous metals and other sectors fell in the front.
The main reason for the apparent differentiation in the market on Wednesday is that the Fed's attitude has continued to be hawkish recently, the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 3%, and the expectation of a sharp interest rate hike in the next three months has even affected the IMF to lower its global economic growth forecast for this year, and triggered the risk that the demand for upstream resources may face a decline. On the other hand, the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta showed signs of improvement, the daily new confirmed & asymptomatic infection cases showed a significant downward trend, and the impact of the epidemic on the economy was marginally moderated, so the consumer sector that was most obviously affected by the epidemic in the early stage appeared to be relatively strong. Looking forward to the future, before the Fed raises interest rates & shrinks the balance sheet in early May, the market's risk appetite will remain low, and it is recommended to try to control the overall position; but in the medium term, maintaining the original judgment is still optimistic about the cycle of low valuation, high dividends, and is expected to benefit from the "steady growth" cycle and infrastructure industry chain.
— Event Nuggets —
Event-driven investment opportunities
01 丨The meeting of the Central Committee for Deep Reform called for strengthening the construction of digital government
According to the Statistical Report on the Development of China's Internet Network (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by the China Internet Network Information Center, since the outline of the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes to "promote the construction of a network power, accelerate the construction of digital economy, digital society and digital government, and drive the transformation of production methods, lifestyles and governance methods as a whole with digital transformation", as of December 2021, the scale of Internet government service users in the mainland has reached 921 million, an increase of 9.2% over December 2020, accounting for 89.2% of the total netizens.
According to the report, the construction of digital government is playing a major role in the following: in terms of digital epidemic prevention, digital government has shown great potential. On the one hand, new technologies help efficient epidemic prevention work. On the other hand, Internet government services have played an important role in coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development; in the "Internet + supervision" work, various work is also steadily advancing and the results are beginning to appear. He also believes that the foundation of government digital reform is solid, and the construction of digital government has entered the fast lane.
CITIC Futures said that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the construction of digital government will emphasize the ability of horizontal connectivity and the efficiency of connectivity. The focus of data resource construction is to bring together the data of government departments to form a large-scale, multi-dimensional and complete big data pool. This involves investment in data centers, development of interconnection software, and ongoing operation and maintenance of the platform in the later stage. As the development of e-government in the mainland continues to deepen, the demand for large-scale hardware investment in the early stage will be gradually reduced, and the proportion of software and service demand will gradually increase, and it is recommended to focus on regional government IT software and service providers.
02丨 LPR quotation has not changed for 3 consecutive months
On the morning of April 20, 2022, the National Interbank Lending Center released the April Loan Market Quotation Rate (LPR), with a 1-year LPR of 3.7% and an LPR of 4.6% for more than 5 years, remaining unchanged for three consecutive months. Market participants pointed out that the LPR interest rate quotations this month have not changed in line with market expectations. On April 15, the central bank renewed the 7-day reverse repurchase of 10 billion yuan and the 150 billion yuan 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) in equal amounts, and the winning interest rate remained unchanged, so that the basis of LPR quotations for this month remained unchanged.
"Although the LPR quotation has not changed this month, finance continues to make reasonable concessions to the real economy. It is expected that in the future, loan interest rates will continue to maintain a stable downward trend and support industries and small and medium-sized micro and medium-sized enterprises that have been seriously affected by the epidemic to tide over the difficulties. Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that the RRR cut will land on April 25, releasing a total of about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds, which will help promote banks to reduce the financing costs of the real economy and improve credit delivery and bond allocation capabilities.
— Enterprise Alert —
White paper on lightning pits
01丨 Stocks are negative
- ✪ Jinyu Group (601992): Loss in the first quarter of 2022 was about 233 million yuan
- ✪ Yunwei Shares (600725): The chairman of the supervisory board of the company is subject to disciplinary review and supervision investigation
- ✪ Fuhan Micro (300613): Langhan Company intends to continue to reduce its shareholding in the company by not more than 6%.
- ✪ Xiamen International Trade (600755): Real estate business revenue in 2021 was 3.947 billion yuan, down 71.28% year-on-year
- ✪*ST TEPCO (000585): The Shenzhen Stock Exchange decided to terminate the listing of the company's A-share shares
02 丨 The ban on restricted shares is lifted
✪ Lifting of restricted shares: Action Education (12.22%), XinAn Century (23.13%), Bailong Chuangyuan (24.39%), Xiangyuan New Material (22.30%), Shanglo Electronics (45.68%), Sanfu Outdoor (7.75%), Anheng Information (5.24%), Luminous Technology (7.53%)
Macro policy
1, "interest rate cuts" once again failed! LPR "Hold Still"
On April 20, according to the official website of the central bank, the National Interbank Lending Center authorized by the Chinese Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) on April 20, 2022 was: 3.7% for 1-year LPR and 4.6% for 5-year LPR, both of which are consistent with the previous period. The above LPR is valid until the next LPR is released.
Comments: This is the third consecutive month of the LPR "standing still", and the market's expectations for interest rate cuts have once again fallen short. However, while the LPR remains static, this does not hinder the downward momentum of average lending rates. On the one hand, the People's Bank of China and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently jointly held a symposium on financial support for the real economy, grasped the implementation of various financial policies in the near future, increased financial support for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and required financial institutions to make good use of various financial policies and take the initiative to serve the real economy.
On the other hand, in the near future, the central bank will further increase the use of structural monetary policy tools such as refinancing, focusing on supporting key economic areas such as scientific and technological innovation, low-carbon transformation, and inclusive small and micro enterprises, and the current interest rate of multiple special refinancings is only 1.75% per annum, and banks can further reduce the interest rate of corresponding corporate loans after obtaining these low-cost funds, thereby driving the average interest rate of loans lower.
2. Ignore U.S. warnings! India has bought all the major grades of Russian crude oil
According to Indian refinery officials and traders, the country's state-owned refinery is considering a deal to negotiate privately rather than buying Russian oil through a public tender, according to Indian refinery officials and traders. India has bought all major grades of Russian crude, including urals, the flagship product shipped from russia's western ports, and the ESPO blend from the Far East ( a variety that is often favored by Chinese refiners ) .
For a long time, India has relied on imports for 80% of its energy needs, and is the world's third largest importer and consumer of crude oil. Statistics from India's Ministry of Commerce show that in the 2020-2021 fiscal year, the average daily demand for crude oil in the country is about 5 million barrels, the total annual crude oil consumption is about 1.82 billion barrels, and the import volume of crude oil reaches 1.44 billion barrels.
Comments: Recently, the spread between overseas refined oil products and crude oil prices has continued to climb to a record high. Multiple factors such as the expected reduction in Russian exports of refined products, the increase in supply of spring overhauls in global refineries, the easing of epidemic prevention overseas to promote demand, and the decline in refined oil inventories to a low level have pushed the gasoline and diesel cracking spread upward. Gasoline was dampened by high oil prices and demand performance was relatively weak; the diesel price spread weakened sharply to historical lows.
3. Two departments: support insurance companies to participate in road traffic construction
On April 20, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Transport issued opinions on the support of the banking and insurance industry for the high-quality development of highway transportation, and supported insurance companies to participate in road traffic construction. Give full play to the advantages of large scale, long term and high stability of insurance funds, and encourage insurance institutions to participate in the construction of major highway transportation infrastructure, new transportation infrastructure and other projects through the forms of debt, equity, combination of equity and debt, asset-backed plans and private equity funds. Insurance institutions are encouraged to launch appropriate disaster insurance products and services for highway traffic projects according to the characteristics of different types of projects, and actively participate in highway disaster insurance and other businesses. Encourage insurance funds to participate in highway development legally and compliantly by purchasing local government bonds under the premise of controllable risks.
Comments: Infrastructure construction investment in January-March 2022 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over January-February. Real estate development investment in January-March increased by 0.7% year-on-year, down 3 percentage points from January to February; of which The month of March fell by 2.39% year-on-year. From January to March, the area of new housing starts fell by 17.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points from January to February. The issuance of special bonds and the support of insurance funds will make the acceleration effect appear, provide financial protection for infrastructure investment projects, and make infrastructure investment grow steadily.
Industry dynamics
1, the big bull stock Sunshine Power fell on the hot search More than 100 public funds and more than 1100 funds are held at the same time
On April 20, Sunshine Power, which was approaching the drop stop line shortly after the opening, was on the Weibo hot search, and at the same time, the Ningde era, Mindray Medical and other shocks went down. This has greatly hurt many public funds.
As a leading photovoltaic inverter, Sungrow has fallen by more than 50% during the year, Wind data shows that as of the end of the first quarter, 13 funds have disclosed their positions in the stock; the 2021 annual report shows that there are 1137 funds in the market that hold the stock, involving more than 110 public funds, with a total number of 314 million shares, and the stock market value reached 45.784 billion yuan, accounting for 28.65% of the outstanding shares.
Comments: Sunshine Power's performance is less than expected: performance and revenue are slightly lower than expected + cost surge in the fourth quarter + bad debt increase + intensified competition + expense surge. However, the advantages of Sungrow Power Supply Company as the leader of photovoltaic inverters still exist, and the company's business has gradually expanded and begun to lay out power station system integration and energy storage systems, and it remains to be seen whether the stock price continues to fall.
2. Sichuan Development and Reform Commission: Implement the national "East Number West Calculation" deployment and accelerate the construction of Tianfu data center cluster
On April 20, the Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the Action Plan for Promoting stable growth of the industrial economy in Sichuan Province. The plan mentions the implementation of the national "east number west calculation" deployment, the introduction of the national integrated computing power network into the Chongqing national hub node construction plan, the overall planning and layout of the province's data center, and the acceleration of the construction of the Tianfu data center cluster. Continue to carry out the action of "using data to empower wisdom on the cloud", accelerate the construction of a regional industry-type enterprise-type digital transformation promotion center, and build a supply and demand docking platform for enterprise digital transformation. Promote the newly built water, wind and photovoltaic generator sets should be invested, should be combined, should be fully generated, and increase the strength of the power reserved in Sichuan. Promote the signing of medium- and long-term contracts between the supply and demand sides of coal and natural gas to stabilize the supply of resources。 Improve the emergency plan for energy supply assurance, and organize and carry out emergency drills to ensure the supply of electricity, refined oil, and natural gas。
Comments: After the "East Counting and West Counting" project is fully launched, it will help improve the national data center industry, integrate the layout from a national perspective, optimize the allocation of resources, and improve the efficiency of resource use. And in the future, green and low carbon will become the focus of the development of cloud infrastructure industries such as data centers, and appropriate attention can be paid to IDC enterprises with leading low-carbon and energy-saving data center development capabilities.
3. Promote the high-quality development of vocational education The new Vocational Education Law came into effect on May 1
On April 20, the 34th session of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People's Congress voted to pass the newly revised Vocational Education Law, which will take effect on May 1, 2022. The new Vocational Education Law clarifies that vocational education is an education type with the same important status as general education, and strives to enhance the recognition of vocational education, deepen the integration of industry and education, and school-enterprise cooperation, which will better promote the high-quality development of vocational education.
Comments: Vocational education involves a population of up to 330 million. These include 50 million students with high school education or above, and 280 million labor market workers with junior high school education or above. If the annual number of training trips accounts for 1/10, and the per capita training fee is 4,000 yuan, the scale of the training industry can reach 112.8 billion yuan. The development of vocational education can be expected in the future, and we can pay attention to education companies that seek innovative breakthroughs and focus on vocational training subdivisions.
4. National Energy Administration: As of the end of March, the installed capacity of power generation in the country was about 2.40 billion kilowatts, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year.
On April 20, data from the National Energy Administration showed that as of the end of March, the installed capacity of power generation in the country was about 2.40 billion kilowatts, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power was about 340 million kilowatts, an increase of 17.4% year-on-year; the installed capacity of solar power generation was about 320 million kilowatts, an increase of 22.9% year-on-year。 From January to March, the cumulative average utilization of power generation equipment nationwide was 899 hours, a decrease of 18 hours over the same period last year. Among them, nuclear power was 1847 hours, an increase of 30 hours over the same period last year; wind power was 555 hours, a decrease of 65 hours over the same period last year. From January to March, the country's major power generation enterprises completed an investment of 81.4 billion yuan in power projects, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year. Among them, solar power generation was 18.8 billion yuan, an increase of 181% year-on-year. The power grid project completed an investment of 62.1 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1% year-on-year.
Comments: Photovoltaics, overseas orders are still the main demand for domestic module manufacturers, silicon - modules in all aspects of the price increase reflect the tight supply and demand structure, it is expected that with the distributed promotion and the start of the wind and photovoltaic base project, the global installed capacity in 2022 is expected to exceed expectations, you can pay attention to photovoltaic silicon materials, adhesive films, modules, inverters and equipment and other links of high-quality companies; wind power, Shandong Province subsidizes the sea breeze, superimposed bidding to maintain high-speed growth, reflecting the continued improvement of the industry boom, the probability of superimposed new energy subsidies increases, In 2022, wind power installed capacity is expected to achieve a sharp recovery, wind power prosperity and profitability repair opportunities highlighted; energy storage, overseas to accelerate the pace of new energy installation, it is expected that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period of domestic related policies will continue to be introduced, cost decline is expected to promote the energy storage industry continues to break out, can be appropriately concerned about pumped storage and electrochemical energy storage industry chain in the high-quality leader.
Global markets
U.S. stock market: On Wednesday, U.S. stock market indices rose and fell. As of the close, the Dow Jones was up 0.71 percent at 35,160.79; the Nasdaq was down 1.22 percent at 13,453.07; and the S&P 500 was down 0.06 percent at 4,459.45. Large technology stocks on the intraday generally closed down, Apple down 0.10%, Amazon down 2.60%, Meta down 7.77%, Google-A down 1.51%, Microsoft up 0.37%, Netflix down 35.12%. Popular Chinese stocks fell across the board, Alibaba fell 4.37%, JD.com fell 5.52%, Pinduoduo fell 6.26%, Bilibili fell 7.93%, Baidu fell 3.40%, NetEase fell 5.00%, Tencent Music fell 4.82%, iQiyi fell 6.70%, Didi fell 6.93%.
European stock market: On Wednesday, European time, the main European stock index rose collectively, as of the close, the UK FTSE 100 index closed at 7629.22 points, up 27.94 points, or 0.37% from the previous session; the French CAC40 index closed at 6624.91 points on the 20th, up 90.12 points, or 1.38% from the previous session; the German DAX30 index closed at 14362.03 points, up 208.57 points, or 1.47% from the previous session.
International oil prices: On Wednesday, Eastern Time, international oil prices rose and fell. As of the close of the day, light crude futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $0.19, or 0.19%, to close at $102.75 a barrel; Brent crude futures for June delivery in London fell $0.45, or 0.42%, to close at $106.80 a barrel.
International gold prices: On Wednesday, EST, the international gold price fell. The june gold futures price, the most actively traded gold futures market on the New York Mercantile Exchange, fell $3.4 from the previous session on the 20th, closing at $1955.6 an ounce, or 0.17%.
Major currencies: The onshore yuan closed at $6.4200 against the dollar on Wednesday night, down 260 points from Tuesday's overnight close. Trading volume was $35.287 billion. The dollar index fell on the 20th. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.57 percent on the day, closing at 100.3890 at the end of the day. As of the end of the New York currency market, 1 euro was exchanged for $1.0845, up from $1.0796 in the previous session; £1 was exchanged for $1.3056, up from $1.2997 in the previous session; and $1 was exchanged for 127.8020 yen, down from 128.7520 yen in the previous session.