Chen Hao: The main force is stable as a bull! Stock selection now has a logical small editor from the fundamentals: trend analysis K-line analysis operation analysis

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On Friday, the three major A-share indexes collectively opened high, the Shanghai index opened relatively strongly, the shock fell after the opening, and the index rose to more than 1% and then fell back to the green; the Shanghai index maintained the shock trend in the afternoon, and the ChiNext index bottomed out and rebounded once turned red, and the two cities traded over trillions. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.67% at 3592.17 points; the Shenzhen component index rose 0.73% at 14414.16 points; and the index fell 0.04% to 3243.20 points.

Today is the first trading day of the post-holiday opening, and the overall market is still a continuation of the low valuation rally. In this regard, Wolf Shuai Chen Hao commented in the intraday that short-term speculative funds do tidal movements, the main force is stable as a bull, it seems that the fourth quarter or to the bulls platform to win a better chance. More wonderful analysis and investment of dry goods in today's Central Broadcasting Live Finishing Push!

Chen Hao

The opening of the door in the fourth quarter should be good, but today's people are not very homogeneous: from the perspective of transactions, because on a trading day, many people in various institutions may take an extra day's leave, but the people who come to do more tend to be the mainstay, the whole market is moderate and more, and there is no big problem today.

< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="30" > trend analysis</h1>

The overall style of this quarter may be bottom-up, because most of the various sectors are not clear, such as the cyclical plate; such as the big technology that everyone once expected; the liquor plate may rebound in the first half, and it is estimated that the rebound to a certain position will also be blocked; some sectors, including automobile manufacturing, may be a little blocked, lack of chips, and the current shipment volume is relatively low... It's hard to find a sector to collectively soar in the fourth quarter. Maybe we'll realize that the hot spots in a whole quarter are messy, but there's nothing wrong with the index, which will be very confusing for investors. However, in general, it is still necessary to pay attention to bottom-up stock selection, diversification, the target should not be set too high, and it is enough to make some money, which should probably be the attitude of the fourth quarter.

Stock selection now has a rough logic from the fundamentals, you can look for the National Bureau of Statistics shipments of various industrial products (there is still August data, September data will soon come out): August or the second half of the year, gradually in the production of those tracks. But not particularly reliable, in the end you still have to learn to look at the chart, a lot of stocks are not at the lowest level, but also not at the highest level, but in some middle position. We should focus on stocks with a more stable trend, diversify to 20 or 30 stocks, and pursue to make some small money as the quarterly index does not fall.

< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="29" >K-line analysis</h1>

Look at the chart in fact, there are some tricks, let's talk about a principle, a stock of the K line chart dug a pit, and then climbed back, if the resistance does not fall back, that is to say, in the pit mouth of the strong sideways, then this situation shows that retail investors are running, the main force is buying. At this time, it is necessary to go sideways for more than a month to be effective, because it is now a spontaneous institutional behavior, so you have to spend enough time to see through the direction of the chip flow of this stock: for example, just climbed back for two weeks and walked very strongly, and the result was "water" again in the third and fourth weeks, and now this situation is also very much. If there is no digging pit, directly upward breakthrough and then horizontal for about a month or two, this kind of graphics we do not have to tangle, as long as it is a relatively high strong sideways, you believe it, the judgment here is impossible to do very accurate.

The remaining trick is to go bad. Then you can determine a scale such as a loss of 20% to recover the funds, and then choose a stock again, about half a year later, you will find that most of the stocks in your hand are good floating profits, this strategy is called abandoning the weak and staying strong. "Make money on the left side and go" is a common habit of retail investors, but this habit is particularly fatal, and finally the stocks that can make money for you are sold, holding a large handful in your hand, which is trapped and cannot move; our correct approach should be to abandon the weak and stay strong, but this "weak" can not say that the loss of 5%, 6% to start the knife, this is too urgent, need to have a certain degree of tolerance.

<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="19" > operational analysis</h1>

The final take profit is also manifested as a stop loss, for example, a stock you have no reason to kill it, the result is that it accidentally doubled you, but the last shot is also a high drop of 20%, and then you feel almost, and then leave it, probably such a way to play. As for whether the high fall is a sharp decline, or a fall after a platform, it is difficult to say. I have not found a common model so far, can only say that the so-called shipping graphics or shipping signals are just a variety of surprising surprises: for example, everyone is unanimously optimistic about color, how color is finished? ...... That's the feeling, but once the resonance is formed, you'd better leave, and there's no 20% limit.

In fact, in essence, to do investment in the technical aspect is low suction and high selling; but we also encounter an embarrassment, that kind of falling low stocks after buying for a period of time, often bought in the middle of the mountainside, so the particularly low is not bought, the particularly high is also can not be chased, that is, a certain scale in the middle, probably within one twice the lowest level. Here to compress the graph for two or three years, it is not at the high level, it is at a low level, but the distance from the lowest level is still relatively high.

In fact, the main principle of looking at the chart is to see whether the chips are flowing to institutions or to retail investors; and we can use the 260-day cost line, if you can build a strong sideways market above this line, generally speaking, this stock is stationed by institutions, which is probably these two moves, which are basically enough for retail investors.

In general, do not chase the trend, but to find some opportunities in the sideways; if you have some indicators that directly restore the main force, such as the main line of the large order, basically there is still a 60% probability of hitting the stock.