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Chen Hao
There is a pool of stocks called mining stocks, what is mining stocks? It's a bunch of stocks that institutions might buy. Below is the marauder's map, the third quadrant is bear stocks, you pay attention to the recent peak, which is actually the cyclical nature of the market - 300 trading days before is a good day for the market; but after 300 trading days, it is more than one quarter of the year, to be honest, it is really difficult, especially not mixed. You can divide this market into dry season and rainy season, basically giving you six months of discomfort and six months of comfort. Then July to the end of December should be a full five quarters, and at the latest next year's second quarter rainy season will come again.
< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > market analysis</h1>
What are the current features? It is said that the most expected some old tracks to rebound, but can not find where the new hot spots - such as bank stocks, how do everyone think that they should enter the bank stocks, right? But this quarter is over, what is the agency like? It's very ambiguous, you say he didn't come at all, he did come; you said he came, he didn't control the disk! I want to tell you that the more uncomfortable days have been successfully spent for nearly five quarters, and at most one more quarter.
At present, you can't look at the current can't find ideas, can't find hot spots, can't find where to earn money, but at present, it is precisely the opportunity for layout. Wait until everyone has an idea and knows where to make money... Most of the money-making opportunities have passed. Is there a bear market in this stock market? No; is there a bull market? Sorry, neither. So what to do? It's a "six-month cycle": the agency has to spend six months to grind out what we play in the next round, and then play for six months, basically playing itself "dead", and then six months in the dry season, basically I think the style of the market is like this.
< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > plate analysis</h1>
Continue to brush the plate, the first plate is electrical equipment, from the plate chart to increase the single main line can be seen, at the end of 2019 or the beginning of 2000 it began to move, and then the main institution large-scale first suction chip is in June last year, the second suction chip is last september. Then this time the chips are densely packed at a high level, but the main line of the big single shows that the institution has not shipped, which is equivalent to changing some institutions to continue to play this plate, and this time it has been three times to suck chips. According to the principle of not doing three things, can it be considered that even if the electrical equipment sector is particularly optimistic, it must be prepared to leave on the left side after another wave? Because after three rounds of hype of the main rising wave, any sector will be overvalued, and I think electrical equipment is no exception.
Looking at wine again, we generally think that it is too difficult for the liquor sector to double again through some kind of speculation, but now we look at the chip of the institution more than before. This is not another position, equivalent to Moutai retracement of thirty or forty percent, some people think it is cheap, anyway, there are more people who read the bottom, and after the bottom comes out. There is a data, industrial added value - the production of major industrial products - liquor production increased year-on-year: in August year-on-year growth fell 2%, July year-on-year growth fell 4%, May rose 2.9%, April fell 5%, in March this year year-on-year surge of 20% should be affected by the epidemic. On the whole, the expansion of wine production capacity has stagnated, in addition to the price increase effect of Moutai, we have not found that there are too many "drunkards" on the wine track, and even compared with the development of the economy, liquor is relatively shrinking.
From the main operating rhythm of the automobile sector, the suction chip occurred in September last year, and it can be considered that it is currently a retracement after the second sucking chip, and this sector can still be cautiously optimistic. It can only be said that compared to the choice of one of the two liquors, it may be more important to choose the car, because it is relatively low.
Because of all kinds of power rationing now, the power sector is on fire, and then the investors who chase hot spots are pitted, just look at the chart is not high or low, not lukewarm, in a very awkward position, stop the fall is expected, will not rebound I do not know. The K-line chart of the biological vaccine is like this, its core is still affected by the fluctuations of the epidemic, the main force has not shipped, but the retracement is too drastic, so once it rebounds, it can be expected that a large number of people will sell.
Macro-point of view, because the low-end manufacturing that has returned from the new crown epidemic will not flow out again, that is to say, the current manufacturing enterprises with relatively high return on net assets, you can believe that it will not flow out for three or five years, because no one can afford the cost of not being able to buy things next time. I think the sense of crisis that people used to have about low-end manufacturing is less serious. And China is very stable, once something is formed, there will be a highly supporting and highly perfect manufacturing industry chain.
The overall pattern of the future, China's characteristics are basically clear, is super stable development for 15 years - not high, not low, not hot, not cold, not fast and not slow, every year so 8%, 7% or 6%, probably one of the three numbers to choose one, and then as long as who has the patience to hold shares for ten years, who will have results. The trouble with A-shares is that speculation is basically a rotation of victory, and the medals are worn in turn, but no one can wear them for three quarters; and it is the spell of the champion. So the resulting investment ideas are more flat, less and less extreme, as long as it is reasonable, we will do a little.