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On Monday, the Shanghai index opened slightly higher, and then fell lower, falling more than 1% intraday; the Shenzhen index turned green during the intraday and maintained a narrow shock trend in the afternoon; the ChiNext index rose strongly, once rose more than 2%, and the intraday gains narrowed; most of the two markets were lower, and the two cities traded about 136 million yuan, which exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the 47th consecutive trading day, refreshing the historical record again. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.84% to 3582.83 points; the Shenzhen component index fell 0.09% to 14344.29 points; and the ChiNext index rose 0.74% to 3231.58 points.
Today ushered in another adjustment, the Shanghai Composite Index fell less than 30 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index is still rising; but more than half of the stocks fell by more than 3%. In this regard, Wolf Shuai Chen Hao bluntly said in the intraday that "a sauce has become a thousand bones, personal opinions, today's plunging plate is not stopless, waiting for the liquor plate small institutions to unwind the pressure, hot spots turn around." In a similar scene in 1995, I chased a stock that a new executive took office, and I still remember it vividly. So what is his opinion and judgment on the market? Please watch the latest live streaming highlights!
Chen Hao
At present, if you want to say what will happen in October, I think it is not clear before eleven, and after eleven is prudent in principle, but the variables are still very high. But then I brushed dozens of charts and one thing has been clearly seen: after the Spring Festival this year, the market has changed from "Moutai Town" to withdraw part of the funds and go to the suburbs of Moutai, that is to say, from value investment to value growth; but just found that the market has played undervalued in the past month.
It is equivalent to a year to two years before the first turn, and then only lasted for half a year after the turn, giving people the feeling that the rolling of the style has a tendency to get faster and faster, and the market has accelerated.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="27" > opportunity analysis</h1>
Brokerage sector to take a look at everyone, the brokerage sector has achieved the switch of bull and bear, it is no longer a bear stock plate, it has become a bull stock plate, but it is a nascent bull stock plate, it is not stable, has not yet achieved the main force of the heavy position, that is to say, the funds feel that I should match the point, but the allocation of heavy positions does not dare. The insurance sector is a bit miserable to see the chart, you wait for it to go well and then there will be no big problem, but we can't say that the insurance sector continues to fall in the fourth quarter, in case it rises?
Our key is not to really be optimistic about the fourth quarter, that is a subjective judgment, but in the logic and basis behind it - I have seen the annual report of the economy and enterprises in the fourth quarter, and this year's annual report should be seen before April next year, it may not be as optimistic as last year's annual report. First of all, last year, everyone's expectations were relatively low, in fact, the economic recovery went too beautifully; but now that the price of raw materials has risen, can the profit still be guaranteed to average 8%? I'm a little skeptical. There is also a way that from the current point of view, the company's payment is not as smooth as before, we in China is now a manufacturing maniac - for example, masks were easy to sell at that time, less than a month and a half across the country is full of mask production lines, it only took more than a month, the world immediately did not lack masks, orders are not so tight.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="28" > trend analysis</h1>
Investors can not take the stocks are the current hot fund heavy stocks, everyone is afraid that there is no such strong ability to select stocks, more friends hold the stock has not risen for several quarters. But as long as the stock selection is reasonable, the fourth quarter is more likely to turn over the salted fish, including the public fund that has not risen for a long time. I have given you the appropriate guidance, such as whether to chase the cycle plate, whether to be cautious about the coal flying color dance... But I can't categorically think that nonferrous metals, lithium batteries, coal or steel must be in the fourth quarter, because in fact, the institution can not go, it is impossible for Hula to escape from a hot spot in the early stage.
But the new hot spot is forming, our funds are also dynamic, in the environmental protection utilities and infrastructure or see a considerable number of the main moved, you should pay attention to the undervalued stocks, it is characterized by the early stage is bear stocks, the fourth quarter may play them. However, although it is low valuation, you have to buy sectors that have significantly seen signs of main entry, rather than buying at low valuation. This hypothesis needs to be verified, mainly to confirm whether the main force is sucking chips and whether the main force is a control plate.
< h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="29" > investment analysis</h1>
What should I do with my investment? We are not gods, that means that the bullfrog fund's doubling and doubling performance does not need to be thought about anymore, when you look at the average of the market, you will find that there are countless ways and great confidence to achieve this result. Looking back, the average of the fund industry is more than ten percent in the past year. As long as you position the goal as doubling, you will inevitably succeed in the minority, because the majority of people double, where is the market with so much money? Doubling is one person winning and ten people going bankrupt. What is the fund industry doing? The correct answer is that fund managers are taking people to manage their finances, not getting rich.
The fund industry is the only way to maintain the wealth level, there was originally a P2P, real estate, and now the fund is the only one, so that the fund manager must give tens of trillions of public assets to manage the money. Since there is so much money, it is impossible to pursue tens of trillions of doubling, the banks have not printed out so much money, where to double? So it is good to be able to do 16%, because the M2 growth rate is only 8%, 16% is its double, and the ability of the fund manager has been reflected, and it has formed a clear preservation of value.