Mao Rui, a special analyst at Guojin Securities of Investor Network
The three major indexes opened mixed on Tuesday morning. After the opening, the index showed a pattern of differentiation, with the Shanghai index fluctuating sideways around the flat line, and the ChiNext index constantly oscillating lower. In the afternoon, although the Shanghai index weakened for a while, it once again recovered to near the flat line in the late session, and the ChiNext index remained sideways after further lowering. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index closed down 0.05%, 0.50% and 1.38% respectively. On the disk, there are 56 up-and-down stocks (excluding ST and unopened new stocks), showing general market sentiment; individual stocks rose and fell compared with 2685:1870, an average increase of 0.42%, and the money-making effect was strong, with a turnover of 779.4 billion yuan in the two markets, an increase of 0.14% over the previous trading day. The net outflow of funds from the north exceeded 1.9 billion.
Yesterday's market waves were not alarming, in the case of the return of funds in the north, the trading volume still maintained the recent level of land volume, reflecting the long-short phase of the capital wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong, the market is waiting for an important factor to break the balance.
In yesterday's morning review, Uncle Rui mentioned that with the establishment of the 316 "policy bottom", A shares have shifted from strategic defense to strategic stalemate, and with the ebb and flow of suppression factors such as the epidemic in the later stage, the effect of policy force will gradually appear, and the market will eventually come out of the strategic stalemate stage and enter the strategic counter-offensive stage. In addition to the overall control of the epidemic, the blockbuster meeting to be held in the near future is also expected to become an opportunity for the market to turn into a strategic counter-offensive.
According to the usual practice, at the end of April, the Politburo will hold a meeting to "analyze and study the economic situation in the first quarter and deploy the next step of economic work", which is one of the most important economic meetings after the Central Economic Work Conference and the Two Sessions, and the most important meeting to observe the trend of policy at present. Through the information released at the meeting, we can understand how the central authorities judge the current macro situation. What are the countermeasures? This meeting will not only determine the direction and rhythm of the economy for the next year, but will also substantively determine whether the stock market will reverse. Among them, will the economic growth target of about 5.5% remain unchanged? It should be the focus of market attention. Recently, there have been some new difficulties and challenges, such as the escalation of the epidemic again, and concentrated in the economic heartlands such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, which have far more economic impacts than previous rounds. In this context, if the 5.5% growth target is maintained, it means that the intensity of policy easing will be greater, and it will also inject more confidence into the capital market.
The peripheral market is a positive and a bearish. The upside was the overnight surge in U.S. stocks, and the bearish was the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit a three-year high and approached 3 percent. The former favors the overall A-share market, while the latter continues to suppress growth stocks and the ChiNext board with higher valuations. In addition, CNOOC, the largest A-share IPO this year, will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on April 21. In the history of A-shares, every big Mac IPO listing will bring some disturbances to the micro capital side of the market, so the short-term market is facing certain pressure. However, the P/E ratio of CNOOC issuance this time is much higher than the current valuation level of the other two barrels of oil, so it is difficult to be sought after by funds, which means that the actual disturbance of the capital side this time is more limited, and the impact is mainly at the psychological level, and it is likely to bring about a reduction in market psychological pressure after the listing, thus bringing about a stable recovery of the market. For example, after China Telecom went public on August 20 last year, the Shanghai index rose by nearly 300 points.
Overall, the overall market may be weak in the short term, but it will not affect the phased relative balance of the stalemate pattern, and the structure will continue to show a weak trend of the main board's strong ChiNext board. At present, in terms of mentality, we must maintain a certain degree of patience and be full of confidence in the future market. In operation, it is not necessary to chase high, but in case of adjustment, it can actively suck low, and prepare for the layout of the "market bottom" establishment in advance.
In terms of plates and hot spots, on the plate yesterday, in terms of industries, coal, oil, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery rose in the front, and semiconductors, medical care, hotel catering and so on fell in the front. In terms of themes, rural revitalization and central enterprise reform are relatively active.
Agricultural stocks, following the sharp rise the day before yesterday, once again became one of the leading varieties in the market yesterday. Driven by ukraine and Russia is the world's top five corn and wheat exporters, affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, international grain prices continue to rise, chicago exchange traded wheat, corn, soybean prices compared with the low in 2020 rose by more than 100%, field crops in the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) wheat, corn, soybean prices have approached the highest data. For the agricultural sector, Uncle Rui had a more detailed analysis in the morning review on March 28, when he believed that it was not appropriate to chase higher in the short term, but multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and climate change that affected food prices will continue for a period of time, which means that the overall global food prices may continue to rise this year. Therefore, there is a certain trend opportunity in the middle line, and the future market can still wait for the opportunity to pay attention to the low. In hindsight, this judgment was relatively accurate. At present, the logic of the agricultural sector has not changed, and the future market can still adhere to the previous strategy. In terms of specific directions of attention, in addition to the seed plate, planting transportation plate, agricultural water-saving plate, and compound fertilizer plate mentioned in the morning review on March 28, it is recommended to increase the attention to the pesticide plate in the later stage. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, countries have placed greater emphasis on food security, and the strategic position of food security has been raised to unprecedented heights. It is expected that in the next 2-3 years, countries' consideration of food security will be in an extremely important position, and food prices will rise and fall, which will greatly enhance farmers' enthusiasm for pesticide application and enhance the global pesticide market demand. With the deepening of the division of labor in the global pesticide production industry chain, the mainland has gradually developed into the world's largest production base and largest exporter of pesticide raw drugs by virtue of its cost advantages, complete chemical production facilities and engineer dividends. In 2021, the trade surplus of the mainland pesticide industry reached 7.1 billion US dollars, a record high, and in recent years, the proportion of pesticide preparations exported by the mainland has been rising, and the structure has been continuously optimized and upgraded. In the past few years, with the tightening of national security and environmental protection policies, the entry threshold of the pesticide industry has been greatly increased, backward production capacity has been gradually eliminated, the concentration has increased significantly, high-quality leading enterprises have continued to grow bigger and stronger, and the competitiveness of the global market has been further enhanced. At present, nearly 70% of the world's pesticide raw drugs are produced in China, although the Indian agrochemical market is developing rapidly, but its infrastructure is underdeveloped, and the intermediates are mainly obtained through the Chinese market, it is expected that it will be difficult to shake the status of the mainland pesticide manufacturing power in the short term, and the mainland pesticide industry will fully benefit from the increase in the demand for the global pesticide market.
On the news side, according to the news network, the 25th meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform emphasized that the construction of digital government should be strengthened and the reform of the financial system below the provincial level should be promoted. As a new form of national administration and a modern governance model in the digital era, digital government affairs is the backbone of promoting the digital transformation of economy and society, helping the construction of new smart cities and low-carbon development, and promoting the normalization of epidemic prevention and epidemic prevention and economic development in the post-epidemic era. The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Digital Economy" issued by the State Council in early 2022 clearly states that by 2025, the added value of the core industries of the digital economy will account for 10% of GDP, of which smart government is one of the top ten digital application scenarios. The "Government Work Report" of this year's two sessions requires that in the new year, we should "strengthen the construction of digital government and promote the sharing of government data." "This is a new requirement and new task put forward by the government on the basis of previous economic and social development practices and government work experience, and it is also a response to the profound changes and major innovations in the digital age." According to data from Zhongyan Puhua, the mainland government service market has been deepening and developing, and its market size has continued to grow, exceeding 330 billion yuan in 2019. Some securities companies expect that in recent years, the construction of the mainland digital government has entered a period of rapid growth, and with the continuous acceleration of the digitalization process, the overall market size will continue to increase at a high level, and it is expected that by 2025, the market size of China's digital government industry will reach 925.5 billion yuan. Considering the huge growth space of the industry, as well as factors such as information security and independent control, domestic listed companies will usher in unprecedented development opportunities. Yesterday's late session, some related concept stocks have changed, today or into a fermentation, like the theme of friends, short-term may wish to appropriate this theme.
Operational Policy:
Yesterday, the market was not alarmed, and the trading volume still maintained the recent level of land volume, reflecting the strong wait-and-see atmosphere of funds in the long-short phase. At present, the market is still in the stage of shock stalemate, but the elimination of suppressive factors such as the epidemic is only a matter of time, so for the shock at this stage, its nature is not a downward relay shock, but a bottom shock. In the long run, with the gradual clarification of the Fed's monetary tightening in the later period, and the gradual control of the domestic epidemic, coupled with the force of the stable growth policy, the final establishment of the "market bottom" will not be too far away. In the medium term, the background of this year's fundamentals is "global liquidity tends to tighten + inflation rises", this combination is not too friendly to the market, coupled with the contradiction of structural high valuation still exists, risk appetite is difficult to continue to improve comprehensively, and the overall market is still expected to maintain a range shock pattern. In operation, the light position is mainly based on the low, and the heavy position is mainly holding the stock to rise, and at the same time paying attention to the current market style changes and structural main line to adjust the position and exchange the shares.
(GUOJIN Securities Mao Rui SAC practice number: S1130519020002)