The dark clouds of the epidemic have not yet dissipated, and home has become the state of many people, and in such an environment, on the one hand, there is a wave of price increases, on the other hand, home prevention and control, market stagnation, the two are intertwined, but home appliance dealers are unexpectedly calm.
The market downturn is expected
This spring, the epidemic has fought back, and the impact on the economy and life has once again emerged. The first quarter of home appliance sales data has fully illustrated the problem, Aowei Cloud Network "2022Q1 China Home Appliance Market Review" data show that in the first quarter of 2022, China's home appliance retail sales of about 143 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, especially the online market fell by 7.5% is extremely rare. The severe suppression of demand release by the epidemic is an important reason for this situation.
After the Spring Festival, due to the spread of the epidemic in many places, consumption activities in many parts of the country stagnated and consumption willingness was weak. More importantly, logistics are blocked, and shipments and distributions are seriously affected. In March, the domestic logistics industry prosperity index fell below 50%, and the last sharp decline was in early 2020, when the new crown epidemic first spread. For us personally, the intuitive feeling is that the express delivery is no longer fast, so the end user will be cautious about placing orders. On the contrary, offline spot is more reliable, and users are more willing to choose consumption.
Jiangsu Changzhou home appliance man Li Zong is very worried about the logistics: "This year is likely to be out of stock, on the one hand, the supply of spare parts of production enterprises can not keep up, the overall production capacity is limited, on the other hand, logistics is also difficult, in case there is an epidemic, the goods may not be able to come." Now the delivery is very problematic, it could have come in two days, and now it is estimated that it will not arrive in half a month. ”
Mr. Wang, a Shanghai home appliance man at the center of the epidemic, feels more deeply about the impact of distribution under the epidemic. "Before the home sealing, our refrigerators and large-capacity refrigerators sold better, and everyone was preparing for home, but the air conditioner had not yet entered the sales season, and the weather in March and April would not give rise to the demand for air conditioning, even if it was a new home installation, it was difficult to promote the decoration progress and the demand was insufficient." When Shanghai Pudong was just sealed, part of it was sold online, and some of it was sold locally, but the overall sales volume was only 50% of the usual. After Puxi sealed, the sales volume came down more, because it was already in the state of sealing and control in Shanghai. Shanghai sales we are independent distribution, can not be carried out, the field is Jingdong Logistics, but the overall speed of logistics slowed down, out of prevention and control needs, Jingdong Logistics also has many places can not reach. ”
Whether it is freight or distribution, it has become a problem that current home appliance people are worried about. Logistics and transportation are trapped, and the enterprise, sales, and clients connected to it are greatly affected. Merchants due to "difficult to purchase, slow delivery" led to a significant decline in orders, but also due to the sealing control can not operate normally, consumers due to delay in receiving goods and cancel orders, or even do not place orders. The more objective reason is that in the face of epidemic prevention and control, the most urgent need is that daily necessities are not home appliances, and consumers focus on arranging living materials.
Price increases without sales are lonely
At present, the test of the home appliance industry is not only the epidemic, but also a new round of price increases. Since March, most air-conditioning companies have issued price increase letters, and until the beginning of April, the industry has raised prices for many rounds. The main reason is that the price of raw materials such as copper, aluminum, ABS plastics, and steel continues to rise, and the cost pressure is difficult to offset. On the other hand, due to the downturn in the market, in order to boost the market and improve profit margins, high-end products have become the main push of enterprises, which has raised the overall price of air conditioners.
However, in the situation of frequent outbreaks of the epidemic, it is still unknown whether this wave of price increases can finally land next.
"Since March, the average price of my air conditioner has increased by 20%, and the price of basically all air conditioners has increased." Mr. Li, a home appliance man in Changzhou, said, "I prepared some goods before the price increase. Due to the urging of the price increase letter, Mr. Li prepared the goods in advance, and he also said that the dealers were more active in stockpiling.
However, due to the outbreak of the epidemic in Changzhou in mid-March, the market was in a state of stagnation, and the home appliance terminal fell into a cold state. "Sales are always affected during the pandemic, so the price increase has not yet been reflected in the terminal, and we can't go out, and the installation service can't be done." Mr. Li has a deep memory of the market when he was at home, especially his definition of the current price increase: "Fake price increases, no sales are just shouting." ”
Compared with Li Zong, who resumed work in a week of lockdown, Wang Zong's situation in Shanghai is even more embarrassing, and he is more indifferent to price increases under the epidemic. "Home appliances are currently in a state of oversupply, everyone has a large amount of inventory, we generally do not raise prices earlier than inventory." Now that sales are down again, it is unlikely that prices will rise in this case. In the state of excess home appliances, merchants compete with each other to find ways to sell more than each other. Of course, in the past year, the effect of raw material price increases will appear, but not now, the current price increase is mainly for agents, urging us to stock up. If the supply of the entire market is sufficient, the terminal will not immediately follow the trend of price increases, unless his inventory is fully digested, and then he wants to buy, and his cost rises, then the price will be raised at this time. It also depends on how well the market starts in the peak season this year, because there must be market demand to raise prices, and the inventory of the whole society can only increase prices if it is at least depleted. ”
Judging from the feedback from dealers, when the market stagnates, there is no support for price increases. They are all looking forward to the early end of the epidemic and the return of production and logistics sales to normal. Just like the home appliance man Li Zong immediately entered a busy state after unsealing in Changzhou, "the backlog of things a while ago must be digested." Mr. Wang in Shanghai is also working from home, compared with the company's ERP system and operation system during the epidemic in 2020, the company's ERP system and operation system are more mature and in better shape, and the application of digitalization makes it not a shutdown at home.