Pakistan's new prime minister wields diplomatic balancing
Dealing with economic hardship
△ On the evening of the 11th, the new Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif was sworn in
Rush to boost the economy
At present, Pakistan's new Prime Minister Sharif is facing serious challenges from domestic and foreign difficulties.
Pakistan's economic status quo shows the characteristics of "two highs and two lows": high inflation rate, high external debt ratio and depreciation of the local currency, and low foreign exchange reserves.
At present, the impact of the continuous spread of the new crown epidemic has led to a continuous surge in the prices of international commodities such as oil and gas, grain and fertilizers. Pakistan's imported inflationary pressures have soared, with inflation as high as 12%. The Pakistani rupee continued to depreciate, with the rupee falling to a record low of 191:1 against the dollar, depreciating nearly 20% since July 2021. Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves are under enormous pressure and are now falling to a dangerous level of $12 billion. As of the end of December 2021, the external debt increased to US$83.9 billion, the interest payments on Pakistan's debt increased by nearly 10%, and the total budget deficit increased by 54.5%.
Shabbaz Sharif
According to Bloomberg, people close to Shabaz describe Shabaz as someone who is good at balancing relationships between powerful actors, including China, the United States, Russia and the Pakistani military, which has significant influence in Pakistani politics.
After taking office, Sharif delivered a speech in which he expounded the new ideas of the PNG government in seeking development, cooperation and promoting security. In terms of foreign policy, the Pakistani side has put forward a series of new proposals, such as strengthening economic diplomacy, bridging economic competition among major powers, consolidating Sino-Pakistani relations, comprehensively developing relations with the United States, and easing relations with India.
But, according to some analysts, government change is not a major issue given that Pakistan's military continues to control foreign and security policy behind the scenes.
△ Shabbaz Sharif on the 12th at the Prime Minister's Office
He met with Pang Chunxue, chargé d'affaires a.i. of the Chinese Embassy in Pakistan
The high-quality construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will be accelerated
Sharif said on the 12th that the new Pakistani government attaches great importance to developing relations with China.
When meeting with Pang Chunxue, chargé d'affaires a.i. of the Chinese Embassy in Pakistan, at the Prime Minister's Office in Islamabad on the same day, Shabaz Sharif said that the friendship between Pakistan and China is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people of the two countries and is indestructible and unshakeable. Pakistan regards China as its best friend and cherishes its friendship with Chinese people. Pakistan and China have always supported each other and cooperated for mutual benefit, and the relationship between the two countries can be called a model of state-to-state relations. Under the care of Chinese leaders, the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has been continuously promoted and achieved fruitful results.
Shabaz Sharif said that the new Pakistani government attaches great importance to the development of relations with China and is willing to further strengthen cooperation between the two countries in agriculture, science and technology, education, poverty alleviation and other fields, promote the construction of the corridor with greater boldness and efficiency, and create a "Pakistani speed" to better benefit the two countries and the two peoples.
On April 13, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian presided over a regular press conference. Some reporters said that Pakistan's new prime minister, Shabaz Sharif, said that it will accelerate the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with high quality.
Zhao Lijian said that the Chinese side has taken note of Prime Minister Shabaz's relevant remarks on the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and highly appreciates this. Since the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, it has made important contributions to Pakistan's economic development and improvement of people's livelihood, and has been widely praised and recognized by all walks of life. The Chinese side is willing to work with the Pakistani side to continue to promote the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with high quality and build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor into a demonstration project for the high-quality construction of the "Belt and Road".
Throw an olive branch to India
Speaking after his election, Sharif spent the most time talking about India on foreign policy and extended an olive branch to India.
"We aspire to maintain good relations with India, but there can be no lasting peace unless the Kashmir issue is resolved fairly," Sharif said. ”
"Come, let us decide the Kashmir issue in accordance with the UN resolution and the will of the Kashmiri people, end poverty on both sides, create jobs, and bring progress and prosperity."
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi responded on Twitter, congratulating Sharif on his election and linking any engagement with Pakistan to an environment free of terrorism. "India wants peace and stability in a region free of terror so that we can focus on the development challenges," Modi said. ”
After India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, Pakistan effectively severed all ties with India and downgraded its diplomatic relations.
△ Ba-Afghan border crossing
Tensions with Afghanistan may persist
For a long time, Afghanistan has been a heavy burden and even a strategic burden for Pakistan, from a geopolitical point of view, Pakistan has never been able to give up its involvement in Afghan affairs; and from the perspective of national strength and the complexity of the Afghan issue, it is difficult for Pakistan to achieve dominance over Afghanistan, and Pakistan will still face many challenges and pressures in Afghanistan in the future.
On the one hand, Pakistan faces compound security pressures spilling over from refugee, terrorism, extremism and drug problems.
Since the 1979 war in Afghanistan, the influx of refugees from Afghanistan has remained high, fluctuating between 3 million and 5 million, which is intertwined with the cross-border Pashtun problem, the spread of extremist and terrorist forces, and the spread of drugs, which constitutes a compound security pressure in Pakistan. Among them, the intensification of religious extremism in Pakistan in recent decades, the emergence of terrorist organizations such as the Pakistani Taliban, and the seriousness of violent terrorist attacks are closely related to the spillover of the Afghan problem. At present, the situation in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the United States is turbulent, the Atta regime is difficult to curb the proliferation of extremist organizations such as the "Islamic State Khorasan", and terrorist organizations such as the Pakistani Taliban are still active in the Afghan-Pakistani border area, which is undoubtedly the security pressure facing Pakistan.
Pakistan's Afghanistan policy, on the other hand, has always been influenced by major-country relations and geopolitics.
With the adjustment of the Us Policy toward Afghanistan, Pakistan has to wander between the United States, Russia and other major powers in the cracks. What is more difficult to get rid of is that India and Pakistan have always competed for Afghanistan as a "strategic depth", but although they have grown with each other, they have not been able to control Afghanistan. In addition, Pakistan must also negotiate with Central Asian and Middle Eastern countries on the Afghan issue.
Tensions between the Taliban and the Pakistani military are intensifying since the Taliban took over Afghanistan, and the clashes near the Pakistani border have resulted in the deaths of several Pakistani soldiers as Pakistan abandoned the Taliban for its participation in the U.S.-led war on terror in Afghanistan. In addition, the Pakistani side hopes that the Taliban will take more effective measures to combat extremist organizations such as "Bata" and is worried that the security of Afghanistan will spill over to Pakistan.
Repair relations with the United States
Repairing relations with the United States will be one of the top priorities of the Sharif administration's foreign policy.
Imran Khan has repeatedly pointed out that the recall resolution was interfered with by the United States, a foreign power. Whether it is refusing to provide military bases for the United States, refusing to participate in the "democracy summit" led by the United States, refusing to join the camp of sanctioning Russia, or publicly condemning and satirizing the United States, Imran Khan has been in power for nearly four years, and his high-profile anti-American attitude and policies have made the US government quite angry.
At the "Islamabad Security Dialogue" held in April this year, Pakistani military supreme leader Bhajewa once again stressed that "Pakistan does not believe in bloc politics, the development of bilateral relations with one country will not come at the expense of relations with another country", and there is also a "long-term and excellent strategic relationship" between Pakistan and the United States.
After taking office, Sharif said that it would further deepen Pakistan-US relations and that "the new administration hopes to engage constructively and positively with the United States to promote the common goal of peace, security and development in the region."
Russian President Vladimir Putin also welcomed Sharif's election. It is hoped that the new government will "contribute to the further development of Palestinian-Russian cooperation and partnership interaction, the settlement of the Afghan problem, and the fight against international terrorism." ”