The spring breeze of the property market has blown, and the desire to buy a house has risen again.
With the introduction of various good news in the property market, with the increase in the amount of money invested, people who have tasted the sweetness of buying a house have recently begun to be moved again, ready to join the team of buying a house again. They look forward to replicating the hot market of the last wave of the property market, and look forward to entering in time at the beginning of the start of the property market in order to obtain better returns.
From the perspective of currency release, the central bank has recently moved more frequently.
On the one hand, it is manifested in the rapid increase of M2, at the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 249.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the same period of the previous year, respectively.
On the other hand, the performance lies in the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio, with the central bank announcing that the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points from April 25 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% reserve requirement ratio). 0.25 percentage points will release about 530 billion long-term funds.
Some local cities have introduced measures to promote the development of the property market accordingly, from housing provident funds, housing subsidies, and the relaxation or cancellation of purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions to help real estate development. As of today, more than 70 cities have introduced corresponding "combination punches" since 2022. From the early Zhengzhou and Harbin to the recent Kunming, Hubei Yichang, Shanghai and so on. All send good signals to the property market from different angles.
Kunming City issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Stabilization of Land Prices in the Real Estate Market and the Stabilization of Housing Prices", with a total of 25 articles in eight items. There is an increase in demand from the perspective of increasing the monetization of resettlement and reducing the down payment ratio of the provident fund to purchase two houses. It also includes measures to support the supply side, such as accelerating the dematerialization of commercial and commercial housing and alleviating the difficulties of real estate development enterprises during the epidemic.
On April 15, Yichang City, Hubei Province, issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Virtuous Circle and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market, which involves 9 measures such as relaxing loan restrictions, canceling sales restrictions, and issuing subsidy vouchers for down payment of house purchases.
This time, Yichang also took out real money and silver to start subsidizing buyers. The document said that doctoral, master's, and undergraduate (specialized) graduates who were employed for the first time in Yichang (including returning to their hometown to start a business) within two years of purchasing talent housing in Yichang City would be issued a one-time subsidy voucher of 100,000 yuan, 60,000 yuan and 50,000 yuan to those who met the conditions.
Shanghai, a city with good property market potential, has also come up with a sincere support for the property market this time.
On April 12, the official website of Shanghai Lingang New Area released the "Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the Operating Caliber of Talent Housing Policy in Lingang New Area", which shows that the time for buying housing in talent housing policy has dropped to 3 or 6 months in 12 months.
The 3.1 talents of some key units, which originally had to meet the conditions of "having worked in the new area for more than one year", can now be shortened to 3 months or 6 months.
With the changes in real estate regulation, some buyers began to heat up their minds, and dream house prices continued to rise. While their reasons are varied, there are two data they may have overlooked.
Perhaps after looking at these two sets of data, the heart of a house speculation will be put down.
The first set of data, the "2021 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Communiqué" released by the National Bureau of Statistics, shows that in 2021, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide will be 35,128 yuan. The total amount is about 49.53 trillion yuan. In 2021, the national sales of commercial housing will be 18.193 trillion yuan, and the purchase of commercial housing will account for 36.73% of disposable income. In other words, 36.73% of the country's funds are spent on buying a house.
The second set of data, the average annual sales of about 1.72 billion square meters of commercial housing in the past five years have solved the housing demand. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, the sales area of commercial housing 179433 million square meters, an increase of 1.9% over the previous year; an increase of 4.6% over 2019, an average increase of 2.3% in two years. That is to say, except for a few areas, there is no shortage of houses to live in.
So, from the perspective of disposable income and sales of commercial housing, do you think that house prices still have a chance to replicate the trend of three years ago?
Obviously, the answer is no.
However, a few cities with strong economic vitality and increasing populations still have a little chance.
Even if there is an opportunity for house prices in these cities to rise, please remember that "housing is not speculated" is a basic principle.
39.9 yuan can't buy anything,
But you can avoid regretting spending 3 million to buy a house,
Others are decent, and you don't have to step on the pits that buy a house. Click on the image below to view it.
Perhaps everyone has not noticed that in the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified National Market", there is a content of great importance for real estate. That is:
It is necessary to improve the unified land and labor market between urban and rural areas. Coordinate incremental construction land and stock construction land, implement unified planning, and strengthen unified management. Improve the cross-regional trading mechanism for linking the increase and decrease of urban and rural construction land with surplus indicators and supplementary cultivated land indicators. Improve the national unified secondary market for the transfer, leasing and mortgage of the right to use land for construction purposes. Improve a unified and standardized human resources market system to promote the smooth flow of labor and talents across regions. Improve the policy of linking fiscal transfer payments and the scale of new construction land in cities and towns with the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population.
When you understand it, it can be a concise sentence: "The land goes with people, and money goes with people."
To put it bluntly, the net population growth of that city is large, and the demand for land is large, and the supply increases accordingly. The net increase in the population of that city is small, and the supply of land will be reduced. With the guarantee of land supply, the supply of housing is guaranteed, and housing prices can be well stabilized.
At present, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Zhejiang and other places have issued relevant institutional documents on "linking people and land", and arranged for some counties and cities to carry out pilots.
The "people-land-money linkage" will play a very crucial role in the stability of the property market, especially the stability of house prices.