The author | Sakuragi slipped
The eight-month-long version freeze period has finally come to an end, and the game industry is ushering in a recovery along with Kasuga.
On April 11, the official website of the State Press and Publication Administration showed that the first batch of domestic game versions in April 2022 have been issued, and a total of 45 domestic online games have been approved, including 37 mobile games, 5 client games, 2 casual puzzle mobile games, and 1 Switch game.
Boosted by the good news, as of the close of yesterday (April 12), the online game sector has strengthened, of which Glacier Network, Zhongke Cloud Network, and Youzu Network have risen and fallen intraday. NetEase rose 2.12%, Bilibili rose 7.23%, Douyu rose 2.42%, and Huya rose 2.59%.
The industry is about to emerge a batch of fresh blood, and there is no shortage of head products that many players are looking forward to. Xishanju's "Sword Net 3 Origins", Sanqi Interactive Entertainment's "Dream Voyage", Heartbeat Network's "Party Star", Zhongqingbao's "Cast Stonemaker", Lilith's "Life Party", Gigabit subsidiary Thunder Network's "Box Fission", "Tower Hunter", Baidu's "Attack on Rabbit" and other projects have become the lucky ones approved this time, unfortunately, for the Baidu game that has been dissolved, the version number is really late.
Although the short-term stock price boost brought by the positive news is temporary, it also gives practitioners great confidence. Since 2017, the version number problem has become a "time bomb", manipulating the heartbeat of practitioners, and now, in the orderly product competition and more diversified opportunities, practitioners choose to concentrate on cultivating internal skills to meet the sudden trough period, for the head manufacturers, the negative impact of the version number stagnation effect is gradually weakening, for small and medium-sized manufacturers, more possibilities are spreading.
Large factories "bye", small and medium-sized manufacturers ushered in the "appearance" opportunity
Among the companies that got the version number this time, Youzu, Sanqi Interactive Entertainment, China Youth Treasure, Dream World, Friendship Time, Glacier Network and other A-share and Hong Kong listed companies, including Teng. The own products of head manufacturers such as Tencent, NetEase, and Bilibili are not on the list.
The issuance of the new version has undoubtedly brought a temporary boost to the entire industry, and at the same time, it has also made practitioners work hard to continuously load grain and grass and prepare to embark on a new round of product warfare. However, the snatching is based on the depth of product content and the level of game production, after all, the core of the version number that can be passed smoothly is the compliance of the content.
After experiencing several times of version number stagnation, the impact of the suspension of this version number on the head manufacturer is not fatal, on the one hand, it relies on its existing head game to contribute revenue and has the strength to resist the cold winter. On the other hand, it has sufficient reserves of version numbers under its huge content volume, and its rich reserves make it not affect the launch of new games in the short term when the version number is suspended.
This can be seen in the financial reports of Tencent and NetEase. Tencent Games performed well overseas in 2021, with domestic game market revenue of 128.8 billion yuan, and overseas game revenue has reached one-third of that of China: revenue was 45.5 billion, an increase of 31% year-on-year. NetEase's net income in 2021 is 87.606 billion yuan, and the net revenue of mobile games accounts for 70.4% of the net revenue of online game services, mainly due to the revenue contribution of newly launched games (such as "Oracle" mobile games and "Forever", "Harry?". Potter: Magical Awakening"), as well as increased revenue from certain existing games (such as the Journey to the West series and Light Encounter, etc.).
However, several times the version number stagnation has brought a "fatal blow" to some small and medium-sized manufacturers. Enterprise investigation data shows that in 2020, due to the suspension of version numbers, 18,000 game companies collapsed, an increase of 92.79% over 2018. The suspension of the game version number (which began in July 2021) has left 14,000 domestic game-related companies facing the fate of deregistration in the second half of 2021.
For game products that are about to enter the test cycle of small and medium-sized manufacturers, the issue of version number will directly affect the publicity cycle. The suspension of the version number in the second half of last year hindered the launch process of new games for many companies. In terms of mobile games, the company originally planned to launch the products in the second half of the year, because the version number was suspended and postponed, and the IP mobile game that many players were looking forward to, such as "The Legend of the Paladin Sword", also missed the best file period for the official launch because of the waiting for the version number.
For the game team that urgently needs to wait for the release of the version number to advance the product at the right time, it faces a dismal fate. Analysys think tank shows that some small and medium-sized enterprises have limited game reserves, most of which have only 1 to 2 products, and urgently need products to go online and achieve output. Missing the best online slot, for small and medium-sized manufacturers, whether it is the publicity costs that have been invested or the operation of team funds, it is very fatal.
Although the power brought to small and medium-sized manufacturers is not small, this trend is also announcing: an era of high-quality games with large-scale molding and research and development has arrived, focusing on high-quality research and development, creating a high-quality game will become the biggest competitiveness of game products, and game products going to sea and operating a long-life game will become more and more important. After the version number is restored, an obvious positive will send fresh blood to the industry, and the layoff phenomenon caused by the difficulty of operation caused by the version number problem will gradually improve, and the market morale will boost the industry.
Cultivating internal skills, the industry is desensitizing "version number anxiety"?
While the issue of version numbers has brought ups and downs to the fate of game companies, it has also brought a new order to the game industry.
On June 2, 2016, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television officially issued the Notice on the Management of Game Publishing Services, which requires that from July 1, mobile game products that have not been approved by the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television shall not be allowed to operate online, and the upgraded works and new expansion films of mobile games that have been approved for publication shall be regarded as new works and need to be re-examined.
In the five years since, the issuance of game licenses has become the biggest uncertainty in the industry. The first suspension of domestic game versions was in 2018, which was suspended for nine months. The sudden changes have directly led to the fierce shock of the industry, a large number of game studios are difficult to sustain, and board games "break the arm to survive".
The second time was in February 2019, and the version number channel that finally "opened the floodgates" in December 2018 was closed again, but this time it was not the arrival of winter. At that time, the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television issued a notice requesting that it stop submitting applications for new game numbers. The suspension is to deal with the backlog of version approval requests during the 2018 version number freeze, because the backlog is too large, so the processing is temporarily suspended.
In July 2021, the distribution of editions was once again stalled. It is foreseeable that the reduction of the number of version numbers has become an inevitable trend in the industry. From 2018 to 2020, the number of game editions issued by the State Press and Publication Administration was 2064, 1507 and 1405 respectively, and by the current year of 2021, the number of editions issued showed a downward trend year by year.
In addition to causing many small and medium-sized enterprises to complain, another obvious phenomenon is that the various industry chaos caused by skinning and low-cost games since the advent of the era of mobile game explosion is disappearing. At the same time, the supply and demand markets such as the version number trading industry and agency business are intermittently prosperous. During this period, the game version number regulations are also gradually improved, and in the new regulations, even the H5 mini game needs to obtain a regular version number in order to officially operate and make a profit.
At the same time, after experiencing several version number crises, the industry wind direction has changed from bitterness to active progress. In the months when the release of the version number was suspended, some companies with version numbers of products were also not in a hurry, repeatedly adjusting product strategies and innovating gameplay to prepare for better market performance of products. Although the version number is very important, only the version number does not work regardless of the content, gameplay, and innovation.
In the context of the industry's "internal volume", looking for "going to sea" opportunities may become the only way for game companies to save themselves.
"Going to the sea" to survive, a new blue ocean or a pseudo-opportunity?
Zhang Jianchun, deputy director of the Central Propaganda Department, also mentioned in his speech at the 2022 National Publishing (Copyright) Work Conference that the suspension of the distribution of version numbers will cause temporary stagnation of new games in China, but the existing huge game inventory and games with long life cycles will not be affected, and the market pattern will not change much. At the same time, domestic game manufacturers will sink their hearts to tap the potential of high-quality games, and have more investment in the game at sea, but it has a catalytic effect on the growth of domestic games, and has a certain elimination effect on some domestic skinning and low-quality games and manufacturers.
Therefore, in the atmosphere permitted by conditions, game companies have begun to cultivate internal skills, select categories, polish content, repeatedly adjust values, and even the scope of product promotion of farming companies. When the first version was frozen, going to sea became the layout direction of many powerful enterprises.
According to the "2021 China Game Industry Report", the actual sales revenue of China's self-developed games in overseas markets last year reached 18.013 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.563 billion US dollars over 2020, an increase of 16.59% year-on-year. Judging from the average growth rate in the past five years, the share of Chinese games going overseas has shown a steady upward trend, and the number of games going to sea has maintained good growth in three aspects: user downloads, usage time and user payment. But the cost of going to sea is rising, and it's not easy to start from scratch without laying the groundwork.
Game globalization has become a key strategic direction for many game companies. In the "2021 Level up Annual Publisher List", China surpassed Japan in the number of companies on the list for the first time, and this time it surpassed 17 companies, accounting for 32% of the 15 in the United States, and successfully ascended to the top of the list. Including Perfect World, Heartbeat Network, MihaYou, 37 Interactive Entertainment and other leading enterprises have been laid out early and achieved certain results.
Perfect World's head products such as "Dream New Immortal" and "Magic Tower" have been overseas or have plans to launch overseas. Not long ago, Dark Nemesis: Infinite Quest, the Dark Wind ARPG mobile game released overseas in mid-March, entered the 11th place in the growth list in half a month. According to Sensor Tower data, the game is the highest-paid dungeon exploration game in Southeast Asia since its launch, ranking 6th in the US market.
But at the same time, the opportunities and risks are also proportional. For Chinese mobile game manufacturers, overseas markets are no longer "dimensionality reduction" operations. Factors such as game localization, audits and import and export trade have put forward new requirements for overseas operations.
Therefore, although the version number recovers again, the anxiety of leaving the version number will become a long-term protracted war, which does not mean that the importance of the version number is decreasing, but the practitioners are no longer passive, when the game supervision system is constantly improving, the game rating management is more humane, and the number of version numbers is reduced in the context of the established fact, how the game company makes its own strength gradually improve, and the ability to obtain the version number is not weakened.