Oil de-energized, joint venture dud?
Sales were released in March. This report card is summed up in one key word: "differentiation".
Traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles are "differentiating": in the march car market, the overall retail sales were 1.579 million units, down 10.5% year-on-year, and the situation was worrying; in March, the retail sales of new energy were 445,000 units, an increase of 137.6% year-on-year, but it was thriving.
Joint venture brands and independent brands are "differentiating": in March, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands were 590,000 units, down 30% year-on-year; in March, the retail sales of independent brands were 750,000 units, an increase of 17% year-on-year. Joint venture, autonomy, ice and fire.
In the environment of "lack of core and short lithium", how will the automobile market evolve?
Oil out of the electricity?
The penetration rate of new energy has reached 28%
Penetration is a very important indicator of observation.
In 2020, the penetration rate of new energy is 5.8%; in 2021, the penetration rate of new energy rises to 14.8%.
In December 2021, the monthly penetration rate of new energy has reached 22.6%; compared with March 2022, the penetration rate of new energy has reached a high of 28.2%.
This should be a happy thing, after all, the penetration rate of new energy is rising. (The estimated 22% new energy penetration rate in 2022 has been realized ahead of schedule? ）
Many new energy "star" car companies are also particularly dazzling. For example, in March, BYD 104338 and Tesla China 65,814. Among the new forces, There are 15,414 Xiaopeng automobiles, 12,026 Nezha cars, and 11,034 ideal cars. Not all of them, but they seem to have ushered in a new glorious moment.
However, another reason for the high penetration rate of new energy in March is that the overall sales decline in the automobile market is too fierce. Simply understood, the molecule does not grow much, but the denominator contracts more severely.
How serious is it? Overall retail sales in march were 1.579 million units, down 10.5% year-on-year.
March was full of ups and downs, with outbreaks of the epidemic. On the one hand, it restricts the production, transportation, and store transactions of automobiles; on the other hand, it also affects the purchasing power of consumers.
At the same time, the rise in oil prices will also discourage some consumers from buying a car. Either don't buy a car, or look at new energy vehicles.
However, the disappearing sales of fuel vehicles have not been completely converted into new energy vehicle sales. Whether it is "can't buy a car", or "don't buy a car" or "postpone buying a car", it has had an impact on the overall car market in March.
Independent brands fight back
Joint venture brands are collapsing?
Let's take a look at the sales volume of each segment of the car market in March.
As mentioned above, the overall auto market retail sales in March were 1.579 million units, down 10.5% year-on-year, and the overall auto market retail sales in January-March were 4.915 million units, down 4.5% year-on-year.
In March, cars, SUVs, and MPVs fell across the board. Retail sales of sedans decreased 12% y/y to 765,000 units, retail SUVs sold 742,000 units, down 5.6% y/y, and retail PVVs of 72,000 units, down 33.2% year-on-year.
A downward trend, and from the top 10 list of manufacturers, we can see the situation of "differentiation".
Of the top 10 car companies, only four retail sales increased year-on-year in March, namely Changan Automobile, BYD Automobile, Geely Automobile, and GAC Toyota. Of the remaining six, retail sales in March fell by 12%-40% year-on-year.
More importantly, the performance of independent brands is significantly better.
Changan Automobile sold 120,000 vehicles in March, ranking second on the list, up 17% year-on-year; BYD's sales in March exceeded 100,000 units, ranking third, up 161% year-on-year; Geely followed it, ranking fourth, up about 4% year-on-year.
FAW-Volkswagen held first place, but sales fell 40% year-on-year in March; SAIC Volkswagen slipped directly to sixth place, with sales down about 35% year-on-year. SAIC-GM ranked ninth, while Dongfeng Nissan ranked tenth and nearly slipped out of the list.
At the beginning of the chapter, we wrote that joint venture, autonomy, and the dual heavens of ice and fire.
In March, the retail share of independent brands was 48.2%, an increase of 11.5 percentage points year-on-year; the retail share of mainstream joint venture brands was 37.9%, down 10.4 percentage points year-on-year.
Lack of core short lithium
How to go after the car market?
At the beginning of the year, the industry was optimistic about the sales volume of the car market in 2022. For example, the Association expects retail sales to increase by 5% year-on-year in 2022.
From the perspective of this time, the 5% forecast is still not exaggerated, but it depends on how long the epidemic has been effectively controlled, and whether the production capacity and terminal purchasing power can be quickly released in the second half of the year to "catch up with the lost March".
"Lack of core short lithium" will continue to plague the automotive industry, but this is a supply chain problem, the solution only needs to look at the time sooner or later, and will eventually be solved.
One trend we can see is that new energy sales have risen sharply, but don't just focus on electric vehicles, this year's plug-in hybrid models will usher in a small peak.
On the one hand, oil prices are rising, consumers need more energy-efficient cars, and today's plug-in hybrid technology can indeed really save fuel. On the road to new energy, plug-in hybrid is the easiest to be accepted by all kinds of consumers.
On the other hand, electric vehicles face the pressure of battery price increases in the short term, and they can't help but raise the price of the terminal, while the pressure of plug-in hybrid models is relatively small, and it is possible to divert some pure electric users.
From the perspective of the growth rate of production and retail, the trend of plug-in hybrid is good. Byd's breakthrough of 100,000 yuan, as well as its own brands to fight back against joint venture brands, are all because of the full blossoming of new energy.