Text | Hua Shang Tao Strategy Duan Liwen
As of December 2021, the market value of 11 lithium battery-related companies has exceeded 100 billion yuan, in addition to the trillion "Ning Wang", BYD's market value is close to 800 billion yuan.
From the perspective of market share, according to data from SNE Research, a South Korean market research institute, in 2021, the installed capacity of 6 Chinese lithium battery companies such as CATL will steadily occupy the top 10 in the world, and the total market share will increase from 36% last year to 47%.
In addition, according to the statistics of high-tech lithium batteries, in the manufacture of core materials for power batteries, China has a leading edge in the world, and from 2022 to 2025, China's four main materials will occupy 70% of the global share.
However, it is worth noting that at present, in the core technology links such as lithium battery separators and energy density, the gap between China and top technologies is still very obvious.
So, today's "world's first fault line", how did China do it?
The history of lithium batteries is not very long, in the 1970s and 1980s, lithium battery technology came into being.
The world's first industrial lithium-ion battery is a lithium cobalt oxide cathode invented by John Goodenough, which is combined with the coke anode proposed by Akira Yoshino. The Americans occupied the industrial opportunity, and subsequently, Japan also played an important role in the promotion of lithium battery technology, in 1992, SONY company industrialized lithium-ion batteries at the rate of "the world's first".
For this reason, in 2019, John Goodenough, Stanley Whitingham and Akira Yoshino were awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in recognition of their contributions to the research and development of lithium-ion batteries.
But another fact that can not be ignored is that China's research on lithium batteries is not too late, at the end of the seventies, under the recommendation of Chen Liquan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences established the first solid ion laboratory in China, opened the research of lithium batteries, and in 1995, China's first lithium battery was born.
Thanks to the strong support of the government, China's high-energy lithium battery research is the same as that of the international community, starting from the research and development of the metal lithium system, and then switching to the research and development and industrialization of lithium-ion batteries.
At the same time, research institutions such as the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a number of enterprises such as BYD, Huaguang, Guangyu and other units have fully invested in research or industrialization, which has greatly promoted the technological progress and industrial development of lithium-ion batteries in the mainland.
China's lithium batteries, from tracking research and imitation to independent innovation, from the initial mobile phones and laptops to power and energy storage applications. In the fierce competition, "Ning Wang" stands out.
In 2005, due to the introduction of venture capital funds and the risk of debt, ATL, one of the "industry big four", was acquired by the Japanese giant TDK at a price of $100 million. Since then, ATL has become a Japanese-controlled company.
In 2011, the government's subsidy "white list" kept foreign companies out of the door, and ATL's identity became anachronistic. In the same year, ATL Japan's top executives insisted on rejecting the "electric vehicle cooperation invitation" issued by bmw group and said that they were more interested in fuel cells. In this process, the ATL Chinese management repeatedly dissuaded, but the Japanese top not only ignored it, but even made sarcastic remarks.
All this finally led Zeng Yuqun, Huang Shilin and others to leave ATL and found the Ningde Era (CATL). CATL absorbed a large number of "old owners" technology, soaring into a real "dark horse". And all this, of course, is also extremely closely related to the general policy.
In 2013, the mainland began a new energy subsidy policy. The state provides special support for the domestic new energy automobile industry through financial subsidies of tens of billions of yuan every year. Especially after the release of the "Power Battery White Paper", "precision feeding" has been realized, which has strongly supported the development of the relevant industrial chain. With the adjustment of subsidy policy, the Ningde era surpassed BYD.
In 2017, CATL overtook Panasonic and became the world's largest producer of lithium-ion batteries. From an industry "newborn" to "the world's first power battery manufacturer", the Ningde era only took 7 years.
In 2020, the British research institute Benchmark released a report that only 6 battery manufacturing companies in the world have reached the level of "first-class manufacturers" of power batteries, of which China has two Ningde Times and Vision AESC, three in South Korea, and only one in Japan and the United States.
Image source: Electric Vehicle Watcher
At present, the development and application of global lithium batteries will usher in a broader prospect, and the future lithium battery market is mainly in three aspects: consumer electronics, energy storage and new energy vehicles. The biggest traction in the market is still dominated by new energy vehicles, and new applications in IoT nodes, robots, etc. are likely to achieve explosive growth. Regarding the problem of "lithium battery core technology", the times may give us a new solution.
At present, lithium batteries are moving towards the third generation. In addition to the current "two-point world" ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, the new battery technology route is also worthy of attention, of which lithium manganese iron phosphate, sodium ion batteries or will enter the commercial application stage in the next 2-3 years.
The first two generations of core technologies and patents have been divided up by foreign companies, and China may be able to lay out in advance without advantages and reverse the situation in the next generation.
"New energy is becoming a new engine for China's economy."
To this end, China is already in action, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, science and technology department has introduced a development plan for lithium battery technology, "Made in China 2025" also determined the technical route of lithium battery development.
When participating in the 2021 China Entrepreneurs Boao Forum China Wealth Summit, Ren Zeping, chief economist invited by Soochow Securities, proposed that the third energy revolution is the large-scale use of renewable energy brought by power batteries, and in this process, China is very likely to achieve curve overtaking.
We firmly believe that China will be able to achieve the victory of building an independent innovation lithium battery power!
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