Image source @ Visual China
Text | Game Pizza, author | north melon, edited by | Zhang Youfa
"Seriously, I was so excited I cried the moment I got it."
The resended message of the version number brushed the circle of friends of every gamer yesterday evening. In the latest release of the list of 45 games that received version approval in April, the "Sand Town Time" developed by Pasia Technology is one of them, and its vice president Deng Yongjin expressed his feelings to Pizza Jun for the first time.
This is also a common feeling of the entire industry. After July last year, china has not issued a version number for up to 8 months. As the "quasi-birth certificate" of the new game launched in China, the importance of the version number to the game industry is self-evident: for large manufacturers, the performance of the capital market is closely related to the wind direction of the version number; for small and medium-sized game companies with limited anti-risk ability, the issuance of the version number is directly related to survival.
After this round of version numbers is restored, it is still necessary to re-examine the future of the game industry. The reduction in the number of editions brings about the inevitable trend of game quality, and enterprises also need to have stronger anti-risk capabilities, including the emphasis on long-term operation and investment in overseas markets.
The first step out of the night is to adapt the eyes to the light.
How did you live the days of suspension?
The average player only touches the game itself and may not be quite sure what the version number means to the game. In fact, the game version number is the abbreviation of the "approval number approved by the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television for the publication and operation of related games", and each game needs to have a version number in order to be launched in China.
To obtain a version number, a game needs to be reviewed by the publishing house, the provincial bureau, and the general administration in turn, and after each review, the corresponding modification opinion will be sent back, and the game developer will complete the modification according to the opinion. Different types of games face a slightly different cycle of review, "I heard that like stand-alone games, indie games and the like, will be faster, and then normal half a year or so can get it, but online games, mobile games may be slower." Deng Yongjin said.
So, in the days when the version number was discontinued, how much was the impact on the game company? For game companies of different sizes, the answers to the question are not the same.
According to Deng Yongjin, "Sand and Gravel Town Time" has begun to submit version number approval after the Spring Festival in 2021. The approval of the provincial bureau was completed around April, and the General Administration sent back two revision opinions, each time taking about ten days to complete the revision, and then submitted it online again. According to the normal process, you should be able to get the version number in July and August.
The scene of the player demo event organized by Sandstone Town Time
After discovering that the version number was suspended, Deng Yongjin and Pasia Technology did not mess with themselves, "First, we accept this fact, etc. Second, we also use this waiting time to add richer content to the game. At that time, our main line was almost finished, but there were still many side lines to supplement. ”
But as the waiting time has lengthened, there has been no small pressure on the company's operation. "We relied on Portia Time to generate revenue for us during this time. But as a stand-alone game, it certainly can't continue to have high-revenue revenue like online games, and the sales curve is definitely declining. In fact, until now, the monthly income of "Portia Time" has not been enough to maintain the company's expenses, and can only eat the old money. If the version number of "Sandstone Town Time" is not down again, it is estimated that it will not be able to hold on in a few months. ”
Individual studios that do not have the pressure to raise a team are faced with a mental adjustment. AZGames, the main owner of B Station UP, released a video on December 25 last year, which reached 1.3 million views, telling the experience of applying for a mobile version of the game "Pottery Master" independently developed and produced.
In the latest batch of edition number list in April, "Pottery Master" is also listed, pizza Jun contacted AZGames for the first time, he said that he has maintained a normal heart on the day he did not get the edition number, "because the studio has always been only myself, so the economic aspect has not yet reached the situation that it cannot be completely maintained, it may be more of a psychological impact, because I don't know when I can recover, but then I also looked at it, and I really can't go to work." ”
It can be seen that for small and medium-sized game development companies, due to the small number of products and limited anti-risk capabilities, it is very necessary for new games to be launched in normal cycles to recover costs to maintain operations, otherwise it will be difficult to sustain.
However, for big game manufacturers, the games that have been launched continue to contribute revenue, and the contribution is still the majority of total revenue. Analysts who pay attention to the game market told Pizza Jun, "From the perspective of the industry, new games within three months of launch generally contribute about 10% of the monthly flow of the entire industry, and the impact is not large." For companies that operate 1-2 large items on a long-term basis, the impact is even smaller. ”
Although the direct impact on revenue is not large, the big factories have a project horse racing mechanism, and the blockage of the new tour line has a deep impact on the horse racing strategy of the big factories, which will also hurt the company's next growth and capital market valuation.
An employee who works in a big game factory told Pizza Jun that on the days when the version number is suspended, the research and development of the new game will not stop, "just like being a farmer in a place where natural disasters are frequent, the autumn harvest may not be smooth, but when the spring comes, it is still necessary to cultivate." "It's just that there will be some emphasis on personnel deployment," although projects that do not get the version number may not necessarily lay off employees, but recruitment is already particularly cautious. Of course, some departments will expand enrollment, such as overseas departments. ”
In the capital market, the suspension and issuance of the version number also affects the mood of investors at all times. After the announcement of yesterday's new batch of version number list, The Chinese stock game company rose sharply before the market, and as of Monday's close, Bilibili, which fell 6.88% in the previous trading day, rose 7.23%, Huya rose 2.59%, NetEase rose 2.12%, and Douyu rose 2.42%. On April 12, A-share game companies Glacier Network, Dasheng Culture, and Youzu Network opened up and down.
In fact, in the 8 months of suspension, there have been repeated media reports on the version number, each time can sensitively drive stock price fluctuations.
On November 16 last year, according to 21st Century Business Herald, "the game version number was approved or will be restored in the near future." Hong Kong mobile game stocks collectively moved higher in the afternoon of the same day, with the company up nearly 10% and the middle mobile game up 5%. On February 21 this year, according to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, a person in charge of a game company for more than 20 years said, "This year's domestic non-issuance of version numbers is the biggest bearish, and we already know it before the lunar calendar in the industry." As of the close of the day, Tencent Holdings fell 5.23%, NetEase fell 3.77%, and Station B fell 9.59%.
But the news can only bring short-term changes in the end, and only "boots landing" can bring long-term recovery. Analysts said, "Now the A-share leader is generally about 15X, the normal level is 25X, and it will gradually return with the opening of the version number." ”
What is the future?
After "a meal of dumplings", it is also necessary to figure out the logic of the suspension and release of the version number, so that the future of the game industry can have more certainty.
According to official data, the number of game version numbers issued from 2019 to 2021 is 1545, 1405 and 755, respectively. It is not difficult to find that the average number of games that have received version numbers per month in the past three years has been between 100-130, and the number of game version numbers that have been restored in April has only 45 approved. Many industry insiders speculate that the future version number issuance cycle will return to normal, but the number may be difficult to return to the past water level.
In the case of a decrease in the number of new tours, boutique is the direction that the industry must pursue. The last edition of 2018 also lasted for 8 months. Before that round of suspension, the domestic game industry was on the high-speed lane of development, whether it was the scale of users or commercial revenue was very impressive. In 2017, the actual sales revenue growth rate of the Chinese game market was 22.98%, and in 2018, this figure fell to 5.32%.
2021 China Game Industry Report
But at that time, the market was also full of many skinned and inferior games, and from the long-term perspective of industrial development, such a growth model was not entirely a good thing.
At the 2018 China Game Industry Annual Meeting, with the news of the "restart of the game version review work", there were also relevant departments characterizing the direction of the game industry towards high-quality products: "Previously, the Chinese game industry paid too much attention to quantity and ignored quality, so now I hope that the game industry can carry out industrial transformation and upgrading as soon as possible, produce high-quality games, and assume the responsibility of disseminating and exporting Chinese culture overseas."
In this round of version number suspension, the prevention of minors' addiction has become a new policy focus. Xiao Jian, founder and CEO of Cmome, said at the 2021 annual results conference that the reason for the suspension of the version number is mainly for the improvement and review of the protection mechanism for minors in the game.
Combined with the experience of the two times, a basic conclusion is that the version number is unlikely to be completely discontinued, the game industry has a basic chassis, and each time it goes through the discontinuation cycle, it is about the rectification and compliance of some existing problems in the game industry.
However, in order to face the rectification period more calmly, game companies also need to think about corresponding anti-risk strategies. For example, more emphasis is placed on the development of long-term games, Xiao Jian said, "In the face of the tightening of version numbers, game companies need to have high-quality or strong features of long-life games, such as platform-oriented, competitive-oriented, SLG and board-to-board games will be more valued." ”
The game goes to sea is also one of the general directions. In the NetEase 2021 earnings conference call, NetEase CEO Ding Lei said: "There has been no version number in China for a long time, and overseas market development and producer investment are NetEase's very firm strategic policies. Tencent also began to separately disclose the overseas market revenue of the game business from the third quarter of 2021 financial report, and its overseas revenue from games in the fourth quarter increased by 34%.
The game production ability of domestic enterprises, especially in the field of mobile games, has a leading advantage in the world, and going to sea is in line with the laws of the market. According to the "2021 China Game Industry Report", the actual sales revenue of China's game market in 2021 increased by only 6.40% year-on-year, while the sales revenue of overseas markets of mainland self-developed games increased by 16.59% year-on-year. In the case of the gradual saturation of the domestic market, it is an inevitable trend to strengthen overseas exports.
2021 China Game Industry Report
Outside of these big trends, confidence is the weapon that gamers need to regain the most. Many gamers are still sealed in Shanghai at the moment, and in the days of boredom, this news has given them long-lost confidence. There are still many versions of the approval is still on the way, may everyone who loves the game can wait until the arrival of spring.