On April 10, Local time in France, the first round of voting in France ended. According to the final voting results published by Le Monde, Macron came first with 27.6% approval, followed by Le Pen with 23.41%. Left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélangcom came in third with 21.95% support and missed the second round of voting. This means that after 2017, Macron and Le Pen have once again become rivals. This time, however, things are a little different. Macron's approval ratings have continued to decline recently due to his performance on the Russia-Ukraine issue and his involvement in the McKinsey tax evasion case, and the gap between him and Le Pen is gradually narrowing. Can Macron be re-elected? Is it possible for Le Pen to become the first female president in French history? All of this will not be known until the final showdown between the two on April 24.
Macron and Le Pen both won in the first round
After the results of the first round of voting were announced, Macron and Le Pen became candidates for the second round of voting, which will be "dueled" on April 24. Macron, who is seeking re-election, said he was reaching out to "all those who wish to come to Work in France" and said his project was "much better than the project on the far right". Le Pen, on the other hand, "welcomes all those who did not vote for Macron to vote for her" and said that "the French people have the right to decide their destiny".
In the minutes after the results were announced, the eliminated candidates announced their positions in the second round of voting, according to Le Monde. Although Jean-Luc Mélenchon did not explicitly state that he would support Macron in the second round of voting, he repeatedly stressed in the media that "no vote must be cast for Le Pen". Valérie Pécresse, the Republican candidate who finished fifth in the first round and received 4.79 percent of the vote, said she would vote for Macron "in good conscience." Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris, and Green Party candidate Yannick Jadot have also publicly called for voters who support them to vote for Macron in a second round of voting in order to curb France's far right.
Results of the first round of voting (Source: Le Monde website)
On the other hand, Éric Zemmour, a candidate who has been repeatedly described by the French media as a far-right, received 7.05 percent of the vote in the first round of voting, ranking fourth. He called on his supporters to vote for Le Pen in the second round of voting. Zemmer also slammed Macron, "Marina Le Pen's opponent is a man who brought 2 million immigrants to France." But in his campaign speech, he never mentioned a single word related to security, immigration. ”
The abstention rate was higher in the first round of balloting
After the first round of voting, the number of abstentions is still being counted. According to the predictions of The French market research firm Ipsos, the first round of voting abstentions in the 2022 French presidential election was as high as 26%, only lower than the first round of voting in the 2002 French presidential election. In the 2002 presidential election, the two candidates with the highest approval ratings were former French President Jacques Chirac and far-right National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen (Father of Marina Le Pen). In the first round of voting, Chirac received 19.88% of the vote and Le Pen received 16.86% of the vote, with an abstention rate of 28.4%. It was the first election in French history to have the highest abstention rate in the first round of voting.
Former French President Jacques Chirac (left) and far-right National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen
Ipsos speculates that there are two main reasons for voter abstention this year: first, the lack of novelty in the candidates' measures and speeches, which makes people "sleepy"; second, the election results will not be suspenseful, and their own strength is insignificant.
Abstention rate in the first round of voting in french elections in history (Source: Website of the French Ministry of the Interior)
The Swiss newspaper Le Temps commented that such a high abstention rate shows that in the face of the political class, the attitude of the French is gradually "turning to contempt", and this attitude is becoming more and more obvious. Céline Braconnier, president of the St. Germain School of Political Science and an expert on electoral sociology, told France's news radio: "In 5 years, no election has been able to launch more than half of the French citizens. ”
The results of the second round of voting are predicted
"The polls have predicted that this will indeed be a resurgence of the 2017 showdown." Le Parisien commented. After the first round of voting, Ipsos released its latest prediction for the results of the second round of voting: Macron will receive 54% of the vote in the second round of voting, and Le Pen will be 46%, and Macron will win by a narrow margin. However, when we look back at the 2017 presidential election, in the second round of voting, Macron's final approval rating was 66.1%, Le Pen's was 33.9%, and Macron was elected president by absolute margin.
Pascal Perrineau, director of the Centre de recherches politiques de Sciences Po, said Le Pen was "well prepared" for this year's elections. Since announcing his candidacy for election, Le Pen has repeatedly spoken in public, promoted political ideas, participated in televised debates and online interviews. According to the RFI, Le Pen held small rallies far from the metropolis and chatted face-to-face with voters in neglected areas to create a "pro-people" image.
Le Pen is particularly concerned about livelihoods, and in the past year, the pandemic has hit France's economy hard, with oil prices rising 35 percent and people struggling to make ends meet. Le Pen promised to exempt workers under the age of 30 from taxes, raise workers' wages, reduce vat on goods from 20 percent to 5.5 percent, lower gas and electricity prices, and keep workers' retirement age at 62. Le Pen's policies resonated with millions of French. Le Pen's approval ratings have soared in the last three weeks. Polls on April 8 showed Macron had 25.1 percent of the support and Le Pen had 24 percent.
Macron has suffered numerous criticisms
Since Macron announced his candidacy for this year's presidential election, he has drawn increasing criticism. For example, Macron did not appear in public places frequently to give speeches and solicit votes like other candidates. It wasn't until April 3, a week before the first round of voting, that Macron held his first major campaign rally in La Défense, the Paris metropolitan area, where about 30,000 Macron supporters arrived. At the rally, Macron summarized the speech into three aspects: who we are, where we come from, and where we are going. Macron said: "Don't think that everything has been decided, everything will go smoothly. ”
The French newspaper 20 Minutes commented that Macron did not issue any substantive measures at the rally and that his words were full of arrogance, "He always started with the slogan 'I will not ... The way to solve the sentence form begins with ' and then ends with the sentence form 'this is unfair'".
In addition, Macron has also attracted many criticisms for his relationship with the American consulting firm McKinsey. On March 31, the French Senate released a 380-page report that noted that Macron hired McKinsey & Company as his adviser to help resolve major issues encountered by macron's government. In 2021, macron's government will pay mcKinsey & Company at least 900 million euros. However, the Senate spent 4 months investigating and found that McKinsey had paid zero in taxes in France for 10 years. McKinsey was charged with tax evasion. According to the RFI, Previously Macron's "courier," French Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire, had said that "there is nothing wrong with McKinsey's taxes." As soon as the Senate report came out, Macron's critics grabbed the "handle" and once again accused Macron of being the "president of the rich."
Political scientist Chloé Morin told The New York Times that "the McKinsey affair touched several sensitive strings in the French public, and Macron's critics exploited a peculiar weakness of his: As a former French minister of economy and finance and an investment banker, Macron's mission was to pursue economic interests for France," but Macron did the opposite. In France, there is a great deal of distrust of advisers and the financial street, and the McKinsey affair has undoubtedly put the credibility of the Macron government among the masses "tortured" again.
The Russo-Ukrainian War is an unavoidable topic
Macron and Le Pen will debate openly in the second round of voting elections, and the "Russo-Ukrainian war" will be a topic they cannot get around. CNN recalls that Le Pen has always been a fanatical admirer of Putin. Le Pen visited the Russian president during the 2017 campaign, but after the Russo-Ukrainian war broke out, she was forced to recall a batch of propaganda leaflets. The flyer bears a photograph taken during her visit to Putin. CNN commented that "Le Pen's relationship with Russia became her Achilles heel".
Since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Le Pen has been opposed to the use of tough sanctions against Russia. During a televised debate in early April, when the host asked Le Pen "should France stop importing oil and gas from Russia," Le Pen asked rhetorically: "Do we want to die?" She then replied, "Financially, (if we do) we're going to die." We must think of our people. In addition, Le Pen also believes that France should maintain its independence, and she firmly defends French sovereignty. In her campaign speech, Le Pen repeatedly stressed that "if she is elected, she will let France break away from NATO".
Macron's side, since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, has brought him polarized comments on it. The New York Times commented that "Macron has more important things in mind, such as peace and security in Europe." The Washington Post highly praised Macron's role in the Russo-Ukrainian War, "macron played a more prominent international role during the Russo-Ukrainian War, acting as a voicepiece between Putin and the EU and NATO."
The Wall Street Journal's view is somewhat different. The press believes that it is precisely because Macron is busy "calling Putin to discuss the war in Ukraine that he has no time to participate in campaign speeches and debates with opponents in France." In addition, Macron showed a very obvious "disagreement" in the treatment of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Macron looks forward to peace in Europe on the one hand, and on the other hand, he is very supportive of European sanctions against Russia. In a televised speech on March 2, Macron criticized Putin's claim that "Russia is threatened by NATO" and other arguments as "all lies", macron said: "NATO does not threaten Russia, we are not at war with Russia, nor are we fighting against it." Fox News pointed out that if Macron is elected, European sanctions against Russia will continue, and the inflation and impact of the sanctions on the living standards of the French people will continue.
A satirical cartoon published in Le Monde. Macron grabbed his cell phone at the rally, turned away from the crowd, and said, "Vladimir, I just finished this chore, I'll call you back later." ”
News and image sources: Le Monde, RFI, The New York Times, Le Parisien, Le Temps, l'Express, France 24, 20 Minutes, some of the images are from the Internet
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