Pakistan's prime minister ousted: why did it happen? Who will take over? What does it mean?

After weeks of political turmoil and days of constitutional chaos, pakistan's National Assembly (the lower house of parliament) passed a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan at 1 a.m. on April 10. After three years and seven months in power, Imran Khan's term as prime minister came to an abrupt end, and he became the first head of government in Pakistan's history to be ousted from the National Assembly.

One has to ask, what does this mean for Pakistan and the rest of the world, especially China?

Twists and turns

On the morning of April 9, Pakistan's National Assembly met to prepare for a vote on a motion of no confidence in the opposition coalition against Imran Khan. However, the ruling party of lawmakers tried to delay and postpone the above agenda by giving lengthy speeches and other means.

It was not until midnight, after several adjournments, that voting finally began with the resignation of the President and Vice-Speaker of the National Assembly and the departure of the members of the ruling coalition. The results of the vote showed that of the 342 members of the National Assembly, the motion of no confidence received 174 votes in favour, more than half of the statutory requirements (172 votes), and Prime Minister Imran Khan was dismissed.

The results were announced, and opposition lawmakers cheered. Members of the current government cannot hide their frustration, lamenting that "this is a sad day in Pakistan" and "the robbers have returned, and the good people have been sent home".

In fact, the vote of confidence was several days later than originally planned. In the past two weeks, the parliamentary "tug-of-war" between the government and the opposition has been full of twists and turns.

On March 28, the opposition coalition formally submitted a motion of distrust of the prime minister to the National Assembly on the grounds of "poor economic and social governance capabilities." But on April 3, Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly, Suri, rejected the motion on the grounds that it was "likely to be unconstitutional." Subsequently, the President of Pakistan approved the Prime Minister's proposal, announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the holding of an early general election.

However, on the 7th, the plot reversed again. The Supreme Court of Pakistan ruled that the decision of the Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly to veto the motion of no confidence was unconstitutional and annulled, and asked the Speaker of the National Assembly to convene a meeting of the National Assembly before 10:30 on the 9th to vote on the motion of no confidence.

Dual reality

Shortly after the no-confidence motion was passed, Imran Khan, 69, left the Prime Minister's Palace for his private residence. The former cricket star's premier career has also come to an end.

In less than four years, from leading the JeM Party to shine in the general election in July 2018 to now leaving, the stark contrast is lamentable. Public opinion believes that imran Khan's political frustration is rooted in a double reality.

First, the economic woes.

Over the past few years, Pakistan has seen persistent double-digit inflation, causing discontent. In February, as the opposition gained momentum, the prime minister announced a reduction and fixing of domestic fuel and electricity prices. However, in the context of rising global oil prices, the above measures have further increased The pressure on Pakistan's long-term fiscal deficit and balance of payments. Over the past week, the rupee fell to a record low against the dollar, and The central bank was forced to announce a sharp interest rate hike.

Analysts say Pakistan faces two major economic challenges: high inflation and rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves. The two form a vicious circle: the currency has been depreciating due to the decline in foreign exchange reserves, which is bound to trigger more inflation. This is related to the mess left by the previous government, which has also been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the face of public pressure, the government has been fighting fires, but has not carried out reforms.

Second, the attitude of the army.

As we all know, the attitude of the army plays an important role in Pakistan's political life. The opposition says the military helped Imran Khan win the 2018 election; but recently, around a long list of key appointments and policy decisions, the prime minister appeared to have lost support for the former.

According to military sources, the prime minister's poor political and economic management has dragged down the military's image. In addition, the tension between the military and the government is also related to the prime minister's governing style. Last October, for example, when Imran Khan rejected the nomination of Army Commander-in-Chief General Bhajewa as director of the ISI, military-political differences came into the public eye. Another example is imran Khan's opposition to U.S. military operations in Pakistan, but the military believes that Pakistan has no choice.

Some commentators said that when the military assumed a neutral posture, the prime minister's support in parliament began to disintegrate, and it was only a matter of time before he left. This is also an unspoken rule that no successive prime ministers of Pakistan have been able to get rid of.

Three big problems

In a country of 220 million people, it is not surprising that the prime minister stepped down early. According to foreign media statistics, since independence in 1947, Pakistan has produced a total of 29 prime ministers, but none of them have completed a full 5-year term (the longest is 4 years and two months, the shortest is only two weeks), and almost everyone has clashed with the military.

However, unlike his predecessors, Imran Khan became the first and only head of government in Pakistan's history to be overthrown by constitutional means (a vote of no confidence).

"Sending away" Imran Khan, people wonder, who will be the successor?

The latest news is that the National Assembly will reconvene on April 11 to elect a new prime minister. The opposition coalition will form a coalition government, and the leader of the opposition, Shabhazi Sharif, chairman of the Pakistan Muslim League (Sharif), has been nominated as a candidate for prime minister.

Although Shabaz Sharif is little known outside of Pakistan, the 70-year-old member of the Sharif family is known as an efficient manager and has a straightforward and bold style.

He is the younger brother of Navaz Sharif, who has served three times as Pakistan's prime minister. Unlike Nawaz, Shabazi has friendly relations with the Pakistani military, analysts say. Once Pakistan's 23rd prime minister, he may not act in a fully independent manner, but will set a collective agenda with other opposition parties and their brothers.

There is concern about how the new prime minister will address the problems that plagued his predecessor's administration: poor economic performance, ongoing terrorist attacks and unstable relations with former allies.

First, heavy debt, soaring inflation and a weak currency have stacked on top of each other, stagnant growth in Pakistan over the past three years and dimmed the dawn of recovery. "We don't have any direction." Nadim Urhak, deputy director of the Pakistan Institute for Development Economics, said radical policy reforms were needed to turn the economy around.

Second, the security situation has deteriorated in the past six months. With the rise of the Taliban regime last year, the domestic security situation in Afghanistan has improved, but spillover effects have emerged, with Pakistan bearing the brunt. Foreign investment in Pakistan and the safety of personnel are threatened. With the new Government coming to power, improving the security situation is imperative.

Moreover, relations with the United States need to be repaired. Imran Khan accused the U.S. forces behind the no-confidence motion. The United States denies this. Pakistani political analysts said Imran Khan's visit to Russia on the day of Russia's special military operation angered the United States. The next government will have to work to mend the relationship with the key weapons supplier in an effort to neutralize the damage.

Four sets of relationships

Some commentators said that Pakistan will be in a period of political turmoil before the next general election, and the stability and predictability of foreign policy will inevitably be affected.

Foreign media asked, located between Afghanistan, China and India, occupying a vital strategic position, what does Pakistan's political turmoil mean to the world?

Looking forward to the next phase of Pakistan's foreign policy, public opinion believes that several sets of key relations deserve attention.

First, in the direction of Afghanistan, some commentators said that in recent years, the relationship between pakistani military intelligence agencies and the Taliban has been relaxed. Tensions with the Pakistani military have escalated since the Taliban returned to power. The Palestinian side is concerned about the spread of violence in Afghanistan and hopes that the Taliban will do more to combat extremist groups. Previously, Imran Khan had been more moderate towards the Taliban. The engagement posture of the new Pakistani government remains to be seen.

The second is the direction of India, two nuclear-armed neighbors that have been in constant dispute over kashmir since independence in 1947. Since 2021, tensions along the Kashmir border have continued to cool as a result of the signing of the ceasefire agreement. But due to the lack of mutual trust between the two sides, there have been no formal diplomatic negotiations for many years.

Indian political commentator Kalan Thapal said pakistan's military could put pressure on the new government to continue its efforts to build on a successful ceasefire in Kashmir and make more progress. For years, the Sharif family has taken a moderate stance on relations with India.

The third is the direction of the United States, "We have a lot of other things to do. Robin Raphael, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. think tank, commented on Pakistan's political turmoil. In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Pakistan is clearly not a priority for the Biden administration.

Some U.S. analysts say that since pakistan's military is still behind the scenes to manipulate foreign and security policy, change of government is not the main problem. First, the policies that the United States is really concerned about (such as Afghanistan, India, and nuclear weapons) are still decided by the military; second, imran Khan's visit to Russia at the end of February is a "disaster" in terms of U.S.-Pakistan relations, and the new administration will at least help repair relations between the two countries.

In the direction of China, Imran Khan has always appreciated China's positive role in Pakistan and on the world stage. In the past few years, China-Pakistan "Belt and Road" cooperation has progressed smoothly. Potential successor Shabaz Sharif is also an active promoter of China-Pakistan cooperation and has been directly involved in the conclusion of agreements on CPEC-related projects.

Many people in Pakistan believe that the changes in pakistan's political situation will not affect Pakistan-China relations, the successive Pakistani governments attach importance to Pakistan-China friendship, and the construction of projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will continue to be carried out.

Qadir Khan, a lawyer at The Supreme Court of Pakistan, said he hoped that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project would continue to be built, especially the Gwadar project. This is good for both Pakistan and China and for the region as a whole. Palestinian media source Navid Gurza said that the changes in Pakistan's political situation will not affect the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the friendship between the two countries, because the two countries have common interests, and no government can deny the friendly relations between Pakistan and China, and hopes that the relations with China will change with each passing day.

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Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Title Image Source: IC PHOTO Photo Editor: Xu Jiamin

Source: Author: An Zheng