Improve the photovoltaic electricity price to break the "era of no supplement"
The mainland photovoltaic industry is expected to open a new stage of development under comprehensive parity
With the promotion of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, renewable energy in mainland China has entered a new stage of development. In 2021, photovoltaic power generation has opened the "first year" of parity on the Internet, and entered the stage of market-oriented development of fully realizing subsidy-free parity or even low price.
After entering the era of subsidies- Under the "double carbon" target, how to improve the price formation mechanism of photovoltaic power generation? After entering the "era of no supplement", the photovoltaic industry is facing new challenges and opportunities.
01
Cost reduction and efficiency increase drive the reduction of photovoltaic electricity prices
Looking back over the past ten years, the electricity price and subsidy policy of photovoltaic power generation projects began in 2009, and has experienced two periods: "prior subsidy" in the period of Golden Sun demonstration project, and the benchmark feed-in tariff stage and the guidance price stage. From subsidy support to bidding and selection, solar photovoltaic power generation driven by policies to complete the "coming-of-age ceremony" has begun to enter the iterative battle of the main energy, of which the electricity price is undoubtedly one of the most "lethal" weapons.
In fact, the pace of accelerating affordable Internet access through cost reduction and efficiency increase has always been underway. After years of efforts, under the comprehensive optimization results of research and development, management and many fields, the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation on the mainland has dropped again and again - from the concession bidding project issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2008 to the average on-grid price of 0.35 yuan / kWh in 2020, which is almost the same as the price of coal power.
Over the years, the photovoltaic industry has aimed at parity and continuously promoted the mature development of the industry. Among them, the development of photovoltaic technology is a key factor in promoting parity on the Internet. In recent years, the speed of technological innovation and development in the photovoltaic industry has accelerated, on the one hand, it has promoted the development of photovoltaics to high efficiency and high quality, further eliminating backward production capacity; on the other hand, it has also reduced costs.
According to a report released by wood Mackenzie, an international research institute, driven by China, the United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries, the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation has fallen by 90% in the past two decades, and may fall by another 15% to 25% in the next decade.
"In the near future, the price of photovoltaic grid-connected electricity can be less than 1 cent per kilowatt-hour." Huo Yan, general manager of the global brand of LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said that the price advantage of photovoltaics will become an important way to drive society to choose photovoltaics as an important way to obtain new energy. Huo Yan stressed that in the future development process, photovoltaics will become the core path of clean energy with price advantages.
After the parity of photovoltaic power generation, it is more conducive to the promotion of the "double carbon" goal. Industry experts said that in order to achieve the benign development of the industry, it is imperative to achieve affordable Internet access. In the process of large-scale application, the level of renewable energy power generation technology such as photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation has been continuously improved, and the cost has continued to decline, which is expected to fully achieve subsidy-free grid parity and become an important force in the transformation of the mainland's energy structure。
02
Facing difficulties such as price fluctuations in the industrial chain
Behind the PV parity Internet in full swing, the corresponding problems began to be exposed. Under the surface of the prosperity and development of the industry, there is also a crisis of rapid rise in the cost of the industrial chain.
"Since the second half of 2020, the price of polysilicon and other materials and equipment in the photovoltaic industry chain has risen all the way, coupled with the general requirements for the construction of photovoltaic power plants in many places to configure a certain proportion of energy storage systems to assist grid connection, increasing investment in photovoltaic power plants." Overall, the power generation cost of photovoltaic power plants has increased by 20%-25%, and the feed-in tariff has implemented the benchmark price of coal-fired in various places, or lower than the benchmark price of coal-fired, resulting in a sharp decline in the return on investment of photovoltaic power plants or even losses. Cao Renxian, chairman of Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd., said frankly.
In 2021, due to the rise in upstream raw material prices, the supply and demand of the photovoltaic industry are unbalanced. "Raw material prices have fluctuated wildly, which is unexpected, but also expected." Sun Yuemao, president of Oriental Risheng New Energy Co., Ltd., said that the photovoltaic industry is basically pursuing the principle of supply and demand, the format of each link is different, the upstream silicon industry development cycle is long, and the downstream is fast, resulting in a time difference. The rising price of silicon materials has brought greater cost pressure to silicon wafer companies.
At the same time, in the process of investment and construction of photovoltaic projects, there are often many uncontrollable non-technical costs, such as high-priced external line delivery projects in the process of investment and construction of photovoltaic projects, high and difficult financing costs, land (roof) rents, land taxes, and electricity subsidy arrears. Non-technical costs hinder the process of photovoltaic power generation parity on the Internet, and most enterprises do not have independent choices in these aspects, and are largely in a passive state. The reduction of non-technical costs will directly affect the final outcome of grid parity.
In addition, the impact on the feed-in tariff of photovoltaic power generation is also the matching problem of the pace of development of new energy and grid consumption. According to the data released by the National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early Warning Center, the current utilization rate of wind and photoelectric energy on the mainland has reached an average level of 96% to 98%. The reality is that whether it is local consumption or UHV delivery, large base projects are facing a lot of consumption pressure. Some insiders said that the feed-in tariff of new centralized photovoltaic power plants is determined in principle through market competition, and if the photovoltaic electricity price is too low, it will put pressure on the photovoltaic industry.
03
Improve the electricity price mechanism to optimize photovoltaic transactions
How to improve the marketization of photovoltaic electricity prices? At the two sessions of the National People's Congress this year, Cao Renxian, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Sungrow Power, suggested that it is necessary to improve the price formation mechanism of photovoltaic power generation as soon as possible, approve the guaranteed purchase price of new projects according to the cost and reasonable income of photovoltaic power plants, conduct accounting once a year, and adjust it in a timely manner in the face of major changes. Establish a price mechanism for energy storage systems for photovoltaic power plants as soon as possible。
At the same time, Cao Renxian also suggested further accelerating the construction of the green electricity trading market. At present, green electricity trading is still dominated by voluntary trading markets, and there are problems such as small trading volume and low transaction prices. To this end, he suggested accelerating the maturity of the green electricity trading market, establishing a compulsory green electricity trading market with a quota system in a timely manner, and releasing the development potential of both supply and demand of green electricity.
It is understood that in addition to centralized photovoltaic power generation, distributed photovoltaic power generation is also a key part of achieving parity on the Internet. Green certificate trading, green electricity trading and carbon emission trading are important market mechanisms to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy. At present, the main body of electricity sales participating in green power trading is mainly centralized onshore wind power and photovoltaics. As one of the important forces to achieve "carbon neutrality", household photovoltaics have not yet effectively participated in the green electricity trading market.
In this regard, Nan Cunhui, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and chairman of Chint Group Co., Ltd., made a proposal at the two sessions of the National People's Congress this year: the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration should establish and improve the long-term management mechanism for household photovoltaic participation in transactions; learn from and promote the yueqing distributed photovoltaic carbon asset aggregation pilot, organize and integrate decentralized household photovoltaic power plants by power grid companies, form a scale effect, and accelerate the promotion of household photovoltaics into the three types of markets of green electricity, green certificates, and carbon emission trading, thereby improving the income of farmers. Promote the development of distributed household photovoltaics。
How to solve the problem of clean energy consumption? Improve the reasonable trading mechanism of photovoltaic electricity prices to ensure the orderly consumption of clean energy。 Industry experts suggest that due to the unstable characteristics of photovoltaic power generation itself, in addition to strengthening the grid connection link, the price incentive is used as a weight to seek a balance between electricity price and electricity demand, which is essentially the decision-making process of the electricity price scheme. At the same time, we should focus on the use of various types of energy storage technologies, configure various schemes for the "energy storage + new energy" system, improve the smooth power curve of the energy storage system, and solve the volatility of photovoltaic power generation.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the mainland's renewable energy has entered a period of leaping development, the cost of photovoltaic modules has been continuously reduced, and the continuous progress of technical efficiency has made parity on the Internet a reality, and the landing of the "double carbon" goal has a practical grip. Grid parity is not the end of the development of the photovoltaic industry, and constantly improve the photovoltaic electricity price mechanism, find the next development direction, and the photovoltaic industry will open a new stage of development.