San Antonio Spurs guard Lonnie Walker will be a restricted free agent after the end of the season, which is a good thing for the Spurs considering that his post-All-Star performance has improved a lot from the first half of the season, but if the team wants to renew his contract in the offseason, it may have to pay a higher cost, so let's reassess his restricted free agent value based on Walker's recent performance.
While Walker's struggles on the offensive end of the season can be attributed to his over-reliance on jump shots, he suddenly found a feel for himself in the second half of the season, and his three-point shooting percentage increased significantly. During this period, he averaged 6.3 three-pointers per game, 1.6 more than the 4.7 three-pointers per game before the All-Star Game, shooting 37.5 percent and nearly 8 percentage points higher than the 29.4 percent three-point shot rate before the All-Star Game. Still, it's hard to say he's become a three-point shooter above the league average, but for his part, he's made pretty much progress.
In addition to increasing the number of shots outside the three-point line, Walker is also significantly more aggressive in his offense to the basket. Previously, he either jumped out of the box, or broke through to the basket to be fouled or blocked, in short, the success rate was not high. Now, he plays more confidently and more resolutely, accelerating his breakthrough as soon as there is a mismatch, while not being afraid of defense and daring to make difficult layups or dunks under the basket.
Walker's performance has improved dramatically, almost certainly increasing his value in the restricted free agent market. However, for non-star players, it can be difficult for restricted free agents to get a good price in the market because teams are not willing to pay too much for them. In addition, other teams may also be less willing to take up a few days' salary space for a lesser-known player in the free agent market, while considering whether the free agent's team will match the offer.
For Walker, that may still be the case, but as long as there are teams that look up to him and recognize his value, feeling that his joining may help for some time to come, there is a possibility of a trade. Is anyone willing to offer him a $30 million contract for 3 years? If so, that will give Spurs a decision on whether to match the offer. Walker's current performance is still worth $10 million a year.
Considering that he dribbles a lot of shots, it is good that his shooting percentage can maintain the current level, of course, once this momentum has passed, it is likely to decline. On the other hand, during the second half of the season, he did not perform well on the free throw line, shooting only 68% of the free throws, and there was still a lot of room for improvement.
As a substitute, if he averages 16 points per game throughout the season, it is absolutely worth $10 million a year, or even more, but being restricted as a free agent may limit his value in the free agent market. By comparison, Jordan Clarkson, last season's Best Sixth Man, averaged 16.1 points per game and averaged $12.5 million in salary per year. Walker may not receive a higher offer than Clarkson, but it won't be too far from the $10 million target either.
Walker's recent performances have been enough to boost his value in the restricted free agent market, while it looks like he can also stay with the Spurs as a key player in the team's rebuild. Given that the Spurs have considerable salary space and don't have many free agent options, it's possible to spend more money to keep Walker unless the Spurs aren't willing to spend more money on him.
In fact, this version of Walker is probably better than the vast majority of free agents they can get. So it still makes the most sense to give Walker a three-year, $30 million contract if he can continue to improve next season.
Do you think the Spurs will keep Walker, 3 years and 30 million is not much for Walker, welcome to comment on the exchange.