Reporter Han Bing reported that this was the first time in the history of the World Cup that the lottery ceremony was held without the participation teams being fully clear. Of the 29 teams that have qualified, only Canada, which has returned to the World Cup finals after 36 years, is a raw face. Before the draw, FIFA President Infantino talked about world peace, and the result of the draw was almost as he wished, without the "death group" that fans were eagerly looking forward to. However, there are still several groups, because the second tier teams of equal strength compete for another qualifying place in addition to the seeded team, forming a "quasi-death group". What's more, even the seeded teams in each group do not dare to take the enemy lightly, and if they accidentally qualify as the second in the group, the 1/8 final is the real "hell showdown".
Before the draw, the "death group" that fans and the media paid the most attention to was focused on the two strong teams in the second gear, the Netherlands and Germany, and Senegal, the new African champion recognized as the strongest in the third gear. But it is somewhat disappointing that the three strong teams that are considered to contribute to the "death group" have their own places, the Netherlands and Senegal are divided into the A group of hosts Qatar, although Germany and Spain are in the same group as the two top champions, but because of the presence of Japan and the intercontinental play-off winners in Central America and Oceania, this group has also become strong and weak.
Defending champions France are the luckiest of the eight seeded teams, in the same group as the winners of the play-offs of Tunisia, Denmark, Asia and South America, which are significantly different in strength, and it can be said that there is almost no suspense in the group stage. Relatively speaking, Brazil's G group can barely be counted as half of the death group, Serbia and Switzerland were in the same group with Brazil in Russia 4 years ago, when Brazil was forced to draw by Switzerland, and Against Costa Rica, which seemed to be the weakest group, it did not score two goals in a row until stoppage time to win. This time Serbia has more shooting skills than Vlahović and more mature Milinkovic than 4 years ago, and Cameroon, which "replaced" Costa Rica, is the third place in the Africa Cup of Nations. Brazil, which has a stronger card, may be able to win, but the battle for the other 1 qualifying place in the group will be extremely fierce.
For the other seven seeded teams except Qatar, the group stage was a no-brainer. In addition to Brazil's Group G, Portugal's Group H is located, and it is not easy to easily get the first place in the group. After all, Ghana and Uruguay are both top teams on their respective continents, and Uruguay in the same group eliminated Portugal C. Ronaldo in the quarter-finals four years ago. Argentina's Group C is also not careless: Mexico has never been an easy team to deal with, and Poland also has super goalscorer Lewandowski.
What seems most striking at the moment is undoubtedly the E group in which Spain and Germany are together. They are ranked 4th and 5th respectively for winning favourites. Although Germany has been stable in the qualifiers, the psychological shadow remains due to the consecutive losses to France and England at the European Championship last year and the 6-0 defeat to Spain in the 2020 Nations League. Moreover, in the last World Cup, Germany lost to the Asian team South Korea and came out at the bottom, and this time it was in the same group as another Asian team, Japan, how Frick changed his fate, which is of concern.
In fact, in the World Cup in Russia 4 years ago, the group stage did not have the traditional "death group". The same is true this time, the history of the World Cup of 32 teams, the last time there was a death group on the card was The D group of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil: 3 World Cup champions England, Italy and Uruguay were in the same group, and the two major teams in Britain and Italy were actually out. This group draw does not have a "death group" on the card, and it is not excluded that there will be a super dark horse like the previous Croatia, and finally create a "death group" in the actual sense. Senegal, the champion of the African Cup of Nations, is the "super dark horse" seed that is generally optimistic.
It is foreseeable that the real "hell showdown" of this World Cup will still start from the 1/8 final. The importance of competing for the first place in the group is that the strongest opponents are avoided in the subsequent knockout rounds. The Netherlands in Group A are competing with African champions Senegal for Group 1 in order to avoid England in Group B. Spain and Germany in Group E also have to work to avoid Belgium in Group F. Similarly, Argentina in Group C and France in Group D must also get the same group ranking, otherwise they will meet in the quarter-finals as they did four years ago, and Messi hates Russia, and he does not want to make the same mistake in the last World Cup of his career.
If the traditional strong teams can successfully finish 1st in the group, it means that the Netherlands Argentina, Spain and Brazil will be in the top half, and England, France, Belgium and Portugal will be in the bottom half. However, a slight accident may lead to a repeat of the history of strong teams piling up in a certain half of the zone 4 years ago, thus creating conditions for super dark horses. Four years ago, there were only two traditional strong teams in the second half of the zone, Spain was eliminated by the host Russia on penalties in the quarterfinals, and finally achieved the miracle of Croatia playing three consecutive extra-time games to reach the final.
This time in Qatar, the group stage match seems to be unhappy, but it is actually a hidden killing machine and suspense: will it expose the defending champion group bottom as it did 4 years ago? Or the birth of a new Croatian super dark horse? And will Messi and C. Ronaldo, who are over 35 years old, seize the opportunity of the last World Cup?