So far, the world has an effective response to various virus variants, and the public does not need to panic too much.
The full text is 2083 words, and it takes about 4 minutes to read
Text/Zhang Tiankan (Popular Science Columnist) Editor He Rui Proofreader Li Lijun
▲ Love and messages on the National COVID-19 Memorial Wall photographed in London, England, on March 27. The spread of the Omiljung strain subtype BA.2 has led to a surge in confirmed cases in the UK. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Recently, the British Health and Safety Agency (UKHSA) confirmed that a recombinant variant of the combination of the Aumeque jung strain was found in the United Kingdom, currently named "XE", which is a recombinant of the Aumikron subtypes BA.1 and BA.2. To date, 637 cases of XE infection have been confirmed in the UK. XE spreads faster, even 9.8% faster than the fastest-spreading BA.2. This situation means that XE has the potential for widespread popularity.
At the critical moment when the domestic epidemic situation is spread at many points and many places are fighting against the virus, the news of the emergence of new variants of the new crown will undoubtedly cause concerns about the development of the epidemic situation to a certain extent.
But in fact, just as people need to adapt to the environment, viruses are always developing and mutating. The covid-19 variant, Delta Kerong, which began to spread in Europe and the United States in January this year, was not confirmed until early March, and it is still unknown how harmful it is. Today, there are new XE variants, but this is the normal situation of virus mutation, and it does not mean that the damage of the virus to people will inevitably expand or deepen, and there is no need to panic excessively.
▲ On March 29, medical staff took samples at a new coronavirus testing site in New York, USA. According to the latest statistics on the new crown epidemic released by Johns Hopkins University on the same day, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeded 80 million. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
━━━━━
New variants of the virus test our patience in epidemic prevention
Although the UK has confirmed that XE is 9.8% higher than the fastest-spreading Omiljung subtype BA.2, it currently has only a few hundred infected people in the UK, and whether it can be expanded to more countries is still unknown.
Like Delta Kerong, which once caused concern, so far, it has not shown a rapid momentum of spread, and it is not the main target that needs to be dealt with at present. In most countries in the world, including China, the main pathogenic virus strain is still Omilon, of which BA.2 is the mainstay.
Moreover, according to the past situation and biological laws, if its worldwide spread cannot be completely blocked, the new crown virus may continue to appear in many variants in the future, but most of them will die relatively quickly. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether XE can become the main strain of virus in the future.
In particular, whether it is Delta Croon or XE, the basic number of infections (R0) is not yet known. The general rule is that the larger R0, the more contagious the virus. The R0 of the original strain of the new coronavirus that we have calculated is 2.5. Without XE's R0 value, it is difficult to accurately assess its infectivity.
Of course, it is precisely because of this uncertainty that we should not despise any new variant, but need to maintain sufficient vigilance and close attention to it. This also tests our patience in epidemic prevention.
In addition, according to the relationship between the speed of pathogen transmission and pathogenicity (lethality), if the pathogen is fatal, it will lose the time and opportunity to live in the human body or organism, and it will be difficult to survive itself. Therefore, the pathogenicity (lethality) of pathogens that spread quickly will be reduced.
This is the case with the current globally dominant strain, the Aomi Kejung subtype BA.2. Although it spreads somewhat faster than the original strain, it has been significantly less lethal and only causes upper respiratory tract symptoms and does not affect the lungs.
The data shows that the COVID-19 mortality rate in England has now dropped to 0.035%, which is lower than the 0.04% mortality rate of seasonal influenza for the first time. Although there are also vaccine penetration factors in it, it is also a proof of the weakening of the new crown epidemic situation.
In general, even if XE spreads faster, it should be roughly like Delta Kerong, first, the possibility of becoming the main infected strain in the world is not very large, and second, like Omilon subtype BA.2, because of its low lethality, even if the vast majority of infections will be mild or even asymptomatic.
▲ On March 22, at the new crown vaccination site in Gongzhufu Park in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, an elderly person was vaccinated. The city has recently resumed expanded vaccination in various flag counties and districts. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
The world already has a basis for dealing with various variants
The World Health Organization (WHO) also has a clear assessment of the current global epidemic situation.
On March 30, at a regular briefing held by the WHO, Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that existing research shows that the most likely scenario is that the new crown virus will continue to evolve, but as the body's immunity is strengthened by vaccination or infection with the virus, the severity of the disease it causes will decrease over time.
However, it is also a basic consensus that the COVID-19 epidemic will not disappear in the next few years. In terms of epidemic prevention and control, we still cannot take it lightly.
As far as the current stage is concerned, the worldwide epidemic prevention work is mainly aimed at strengthening prevention against special groups. Because, in people with weaker immune systems, there may still be cyclical spikes in the number of cases and deaths. The main way to deal with the specific response is to regularly vaccinate vulnerable groups with COVID-19 vaccines and accelerate the popularization and application of COVID-19 drugs.
Although the COVID-19 vaccine is not entirely effective in preventing infection, it has been effective in reducing hospitalization and mortality. Therefore, following the WHO guidelines, some countries are also gradually moving into the next phase of COVID-19 prevention, one of which is to vaccinate vulnerable groups with intensive injections.
In the mainland, according to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as of March 24, more than 600 million people have completed enhanced immunization, and more than 100 million people over the age of 60 have completed the full vaccination. At the same time, related special drugs have also begun to be clinically applied. So far, these are the basis for our confidence in effectively responding to various virus variants.
In the final analysis, whether it is Aumi Kerong, or Delta Kerong, or the latest XE variant, in addition to the clinical observation and research of relevant treatments, the public sector should also maintain patience, follow the requirements of epidemic prevention, and take the initiative to take daily precautions, such as wearing masks, less flow, no gathering, etc., in order to work together to defeat the epidemic as soon as possible.