According to kantar consumer index (part of CTR in China), sales of china's urban fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) increased by 3.1% year-on-year in 2021 and 3.7% compared with 2019.
The macro environment continues to recover, the market further shows resilience, FMCG brands need to find their own growth path, today we will talk about the three topics that FMCG brands should pay attention to in 2022.
01
In 2022, what kind of new products can get the "death-free gold medal"?
We know that in 2021, the number of new products in the FMCG market will reach 84,908, of which the number of new products in the food and beverage category accounts for about 70%, and the number has increased compared with 2020; the number of new products in the daily chemical category has decreased.
Source: Kantar Consumer Index, China Urban, 2021
New Product Definition: First purchase in 2021
That is, the new product series will be listed in 2021
How many new products are photographed on the beach every year in the tens of thousands of years, and how many can successfully land on the shore?
This depends on the survival rate of the new product.
After 64 weeks of new product tracking, it will be found that the overall new product survival rate of fast-moving consumer goods is 32%, if you only look at food and beverages, the survival rate of new products is 30%, and the survival rate of new daily chemical products is about 35%. The survival rate of each subdivision category will fluctuate up and down due to its own characteristics.
Source: Kantar Consumer Index, China Urban, 2020-2021
Survival Definition: All new products that are listed in the 64-week period
It is in the 56th to 64th weeks of its listing
A relative penetration rate of more than 0.1% is survival
Continuously pulling new - continuously increasing the penetration rate is the gold medal of all brands evergreen. Getting this death-free gold medal, especially for new products, is really not so easy.
Because, among the new products that can survive the previous year, only 13% of new products with a penetration rate of more than 1%, food and beverages account for 15%, and daily chemicals account for only 8%.
If you think that at this point you will be "gold medal in hand, a lifetime without worry", it is a little early to be happy.
These two issues must be considered.
Are my brand's new products bringing new consumers and are there sales increases? In other words, the growth of new products cannot be premised on the erosion of existing consumer stock.
After analyzing these two problems, congratulations, go to the extraction of a healthy new product, continue to invest.
02
Price increase or price reduction?
After passing the first level of survival, congratulations on the successful landing of your new product
Immediately after that, we need to focus on another important variable – price.
Recently, the actions of FMCG brands have been frequent, on the one hand, affected by the front-end supply chain, international brands have raised the price of product guidance, on the other hand, consumers actively seek to replace products, and brands are forced to "put down their bodies". If the price of Xicha's comprehensive products is adjusted, no new beverage products of more than 29 yuan will be launched during the year; Michelle Ice City cross-border launched a cost-effective craft beer featuring small-town youth.
Our research also found that Chinese consumers have recently spent slightly less on FMCG, with average household spending falling by 0.4% over the same period.
In fact, this directly reflects the consumer's reaction to inflation, that is, price increases.
After excluding the corresponding variables (such as promotions, channels and product selection factors), we found that the inflation rate of FMCG in the last three months was 1.9%.
This has forced consumers to tighten their money bags and changed the way they previously shopped. The change in shopping methods has also enabled some products to ride the wind and obtain considerable consumption increments.
Analysis of consumers' price sensitivity models
Source: Kantar Consumer Index
FMCG, urban household sample group
The first three months ending December 2021
We disassemble from the four dimensions of average household purchases, store selection, promotion selection and product selection, which can further analyze the main factors driving consumers to change the way they shop.
Based on the analysis of the consumer's price sensitivity model, we can see that consumers have changed a lot in their choice of products, and they have begun to choose to buy more cost-effective products, and this trend will begin to appear from the second half of 2021.
When: 12 weeks rolling in 2021
But can all products turn to "Heytea-style price reduction"? This cannot be generalized.
Our advice is: first determine what stage of development your category and product are in. Of the four dimensions mentioned above (per household purchase, store selection, promotion selection and product selection), which is the main driver of category development. Then we can further explore how to improve the performance of the category market.
For example, in terms of product selection, we can further analyze the main needs of the current category through consumer decision trees, and how to ensure the core products that consumers most need on the shelves in the limited shelf space. Of course, if you can combine the price elasticity model, it will be more scientific and convenient to price the brand.
03
How to put ads effectively?
The new product has survived and has been scientifically priced, and the next important question is: how to accurately reach consumers with the help of media?
Suppose we were to design a digital media delivery solution for two different milk tea brands, so let's first clarify the following three problems:
First, are the consumer groups of the two brands young people?
Second, if they are both young people, are the reasons for triggering the purchase of both brands the same?
Third, if you do media delivery, even if the target is a young consumer group, if you are in different regions, are the digital media use preferences the same?
To answer the first two questions, the most effective way is to do multi-dimensional cross-analysis through real purchase and consumption data combined with questionnaires.
More worth exploring is the third question: Even if the target group is young people, will the digital media use behavior of TA converge?
For this reason, kantar consumer index has made such an analysis. Do consumers living in the north, upper, guangzhou and Chengdu tend to use the same type of app as consumers living in counties and towns?
Through our media portrait model analysis, we can see that the top three APP types used do not overlap at all!
Consumers living in the north, upper, guangzhou and Chengdu use the most financial management, navigation, photography and beautification classes, while consumers living in counties and towns prefer video, education, and parenting parenting app.
Consumer media portraits
Source: Kantar Consumer Index October-December 2021
Heavy Users: The app type takes a long time
Is the top 20% of overall users
It can be seen that the media use behavior of different consumers is not exactly the same. Reaching consumers in different cities needs differentiated digital media strategies.
Reprinted | CTR Insights
Audit | Lin Ying, Zhong Yi
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