Source of this article: Times Weekly Author: Shi Enze Guo Zihao
The days when graphics card merchants were lying making money were over.
A year ago, when the Times Weekly reporter visited Huaqiang North, almost every shop that sold graphics cards had customers sitting, waiting for the boss to debug the mining equipment.
At that time, Nvidia RTX3080, known as the "graphics card Hermès", was in the entire building, and there were only 3 merchants who could get spot, and the spot price was as high as 16,000 yuan, while the official retail price of RTX3080 was only 5499 yuan.
Even if the buyer buys "futures" from the graphics card dealer, that is, pays for the order on the spot, and "may" receive the goods after half a month, there is no room for negotiation.
When encountering bargain buyers, most graphics card merchants will show impatience, "Price reduction? Don't even think about it, it's impossible." Most of them believe that the price of graphics cards is only getting higher and higher every day, and there is no possibility of falling down.
Today, graphics card prices have finally reached an inflection point.
Price cuts start overseas. In March, the RTX3080 plunged 35% overnight in the Australian market, the biggest drop in history. According to the statistics of hardwareUnboxed, the average price of NVIDIA graphics cards fell by 10% from February to March;
On March 28, the Times Weekly reporter visited Huaqiang North again, and a number of merchants at the scene said that the current graphics card price is very volatile, and some models of graphics cards have reduced prices by about 1,000 yuan in 20 days.
A shop owner revealed to the Times Weekly reporter that after the video card plummeted, it has lost hundreds of thousands of yuan: "Now we can only control the amount of goods, and the expectation of making money has decreased a lot." ”
Time back to May 2021. At that time, a number of electronic component stall bosses revealed to the Times Weekly reporter that the per capita profit of Huaqiang North IC circle started from one million. "I didn't make a million (million), and I didn't dare to open my mouth in Huaqiang North."
In less than a year, the stall owner's style of speech has changed.
Chen Li, a graphics card dealer who has been working in Huaqiang North for many years, told the Times Weekly reporter: "I thought it would fall, but I didn't expect it to fall so fast and so fiercely."
The plunge in the currency circle in May 2021 did not scare the boss of Huaqiang North, but the recent collapse of graphics cards made them feel deeply small. "We are like a flat boat in the sea, and we can't control this downward trend." Chen Li described it this way.
Most merchants are still sorting out their goods Image source: Photo by a reporter from The Times Weekly
Cut the meat for self-preservation
Compared with the graphics card market that was tens of thousands of dollars and has not yet been spotted more than half a year ago, according to industry insiders, since March, the actual price of some models of RTX 3080 has fallen below 6600 yuan, which is only one step away from the official issue price of 5499 yuan. The spot price of 16,000 yuan, which is close to the highest point, has fallen by nearly 60%.
On March 28, most of the merchants who sell graphics cards in Huaqiang North told the Times Weekly reporter that the current RTX3080 hoarding volume is very small, the price fluctuations are large, if you need to take a large amount of goods, you can take the first 30-50% deposit, and the graphics card merchants will find the goods and then reissue the way to trade.
In the case of the price of the graphics card falling and falling, most merchants have chosen to "cut meat and clear the position".
Chen Li had already sold the RTX 3080 cut meat left in the warehouse, and did not dare to chase any more spot. "The merchants here are basically out of stock now, and customers want to take it, so they notify the factory to send it directly." He revealed that at the moment when the price of the graphics card collapsed, he had already lost all the goods he had taken at a high level.
For the change of graphics card price, Huaqiang North boss "Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet".
One employee said that their boss had cleared a large amount of stockpiles when the price of graphics cards fell slightly last year, which led to them not being able to take out more than 10 pieces of stock for a while and a half. He also sighed, "I often walk by the river where there are shoes that are not wet, as long as I get wet, I will immediately have to stop the loss." ”
Inside the building, there are also slogans from the glory days Photo source: Photo by the Time Weekly reporter
"At the moment when the price of graphics cards has plummeted, most of the small bosses are resigned to fate, and they feel that it is normal to have ups and downs." A Chinese industry insider analyzed that most bosses are limited by their own level, their thinking is not so complicated, and they generally operate high-value-added electronic raw parts as small shops to buy snacks. Taking goods from the hands of channel providers, hanging them online, and finally sending things to customers is all they can do.
Graphics card prices go up and down, but there are always people rediscovering business opportunities.
Unlike Chen Li, who specializes in graphics cards, stall owner Wang En sells goods in Huaqiang North during the day and is a senior miner at night.
"When the graphics card falls, I take the low-cost graphics card to mine; when the graphics card rises, I take the excess graphics card to the market and sell it at a high price." Wang En said. With this set of methodologies, he has survived this wave of graphics card price reductions.
Due to the perennial mixed coin circle, Wang En's sales channels are wide, and many of his customers are foreign buyers.
According to Wang En, at present, many people in overseas markets have seen the opportunity of the collapse of graphics cards and are frantically bottoming out. There are also many overseas customers who frequently add assembled mining machines to Wang En. "The day before yesterday, I happened to have a Russian customer who bought me more than 100 graphics cards, and customers in the Middle East also went crazy."
In order to obtain information faster, Wang En browsed international news every day and saw an optimistic prospect for business from the situation in Russia and Ukraine. "The price of virtual currency has gone up in the past two days. Because soon Russia can export natural gas to collect BTC, these are good news. ”
The bubble burst
In Chen Li's view, in the past two years, the "mining tide" caused by the soaring virtual currency such as Bitcoin is an important factor in the soaring price of graphics cards.
In May last year, a reporter from the Times Weekly visited the Huaqiang North Market after a night of blood collapse in the currency circle. At that time, the market did not have much repercussions: as long as the equipment related to virtual currency - graphics cards, mining machines - business is still hot, and the price even rises slightly.
Mr. He, an industry insider, introduced to the Times Weekly reporter, "The rise and fall of virtual currency, although it will affect the income of miners, will not let them immediately escape mining." ”
He said that non-professional miners use graphics cards to mine, and the cost is mainly graphics cards and electricity bills. Even if the price of virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum falls, there is still room for profit compared to graphics card losses and electricity bills. For this reason, changes in the price of virtual currency may affect the enthusiasm of speculators, but it is unlikely to affect miners.
The bursting of the graphics card bubble began with the intervention of supervision.
According to Chen Li's observation, since the ban on "mining" in China, the willingness of miners to buy graphics cards has been greatly reduced, and even the phenomenon of selling graphics cards has occurred, and the price has slowly declined. "The mining risk is too large, the supply of goods in the secondary market has become more, and the purchasing power of new graphics cards has decreased accordingly." The inventory digestion does not move, and the price naturally comes down. ”
According to media reports, after the "mining tide" receded, miners tried to return the "mining card" that had mined virtual currency back into the consumer market at a lower price. The price of such graphics cards is much lower than that of ordinary second-hand graphics cards, and there is user feedback in professional digital and game forums that such "slag" cards on second-hand trading platforms are very flooded, which has affected normal graphics card second-hand transactions.
The recovery of production capacity in the semiconductor industry has increased the supply of graphics cards and also squeezed out the bubble of graphics cards.
Previously, the lack of graphics card supply caused by chip shortage problems was also the reason for the high price of graphics cards in the past two years. Graphics card giant Asus has publicly announced that due to the rise in raw material and accessories prices. Its graphics cards and motherboards will increase prices across the board, of which graphics cards will increase by nearly 20%, including RX 6000 series and RTX 30 series. Among them, the RTX 3090 rose by as much as 23%.
Since July last year, the problem of semiconductor out-of-stocks is gradually improving, and most popular graphics cards have a large supply in stock. According to Huaqiangbei employees, at that time, "many of the graphics card boxes in many stores piled up hills."
In the graphics card space, NVIDIA's every move will affect the entire market
In addition, a series of news in the semiconductor industry has also reduced buyers' expectations for higher graphics card prices.
According to the technology media WCCFTech, Nvidia, one of the major graphics card designers, has sent a notice to AIC partners that its GPU (graphics card core components) cost will be reduced by 8-12%, which also means that the largest part of the cost of graphics card manufacturing will be reduced.
In terms of chip manufacturing, TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor foundry, announced a three-year capacity investment plan of $100 billion (about 637 billion yuan); Samsung also plans to invest 170 trillion won (about 1 trillion yuan) by 2030, aiming to catch up with TSMC.
WCCFTech still said that as virtual currency mining remains profitable and will continue to be profitable, graphics cards are still likely to outstrip supply. But for merchants, the carnival of "lying down to make money" brought about by the mining tide has temporarily passed.