Phoenix Network "Eye of the Storm" produced
Beijing time on February 24, 2022, this day is still 11 days before the sting of the Chinese lunar calendar, but in the territory of Ukraine, the "granary of Europe", it is not spring thunder that arrives, but the rumbling of cannons.
The black soil was soaked in blood, and under the scorching fire of the war, the pieces of residual snow melted into the mud under the tracks of the tanks.
As of today, the fighting between Russia and Ukraine is still continuing, and the smoke on both sides of the Dnieper River has not only brought wounds to the local people that are difficult to heal, but also added a wound that is deepening to the world economy, which has just slowly recovered from the impact of the epidemic.
The 90% plunge in Russian bank stock prices, the 80% surge in Dutch gas futures, and the rare fluctuations in German government bonds that theoretically occur only once in 20,000 years are epic changes that are not only a footnote to the upheaval in financial markets, but also a wake-up call to whether the global economic recovery process will be interrupted by war.
In today's economic globalization, you and I are no longer spectators who are on the sidelines, but the protagonists who are pushed into it.
In order to better understand this war, the "Eye of the Storm" column of Phoenix Network wrote this special issue under the title of "Cold Wave 2022: The Russian-Ukrainian War and the Scars of the Global Economy", analyzing the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on the global economy, looking forward to the future trend of the US dollar and the renminbi, and telling the story of the Chinese doing business in Russia and Ukraine during the war.
Crisis: Corporate Trauma – Back 100 Years?
"Eye of the Storm| Enterprise Russia-Ukraine Trauma Record: Ruble Plummets And Prices Rise Game Intensifies the World Back A Hundred Years Ago? 》
Changing: Where are the assets of the world's rich going?
"Eye of the Storm| Russia's Rich Are "Encircled" by the West: $80 Billion in Wealth Evaporated, Dubai Becomes a Safe Haven
The Iron Curtain: Where does Russia go under sanctions?
How will Russia, | the Eye of the Storm, which was kicked out of SWIFT, break the game? 》
Shadow: Will stagnation and inflation hit the world hard?
"Eye of the Storm| global dilemma in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: will oil prices reach $200? Is the world economy in recession? 》
Twilight: The era of dollar dominance is coming to an end?
"Eye of the Storm| Behind the Renminbi's Emergence as a New "Risk Aversion": Who Is Pushing Up the Exchange Rate? Challenges to the dollar? 》
postscript:
When the Russo-Ukrainian war began, people joked about the weakness of the Russian and Ukrainian economies — Russia's GDP was only equivalent to that of Guangdong Province, and Ukraine's GDP was only equivalent to Walmart's 16-week sales — and it was widely believed that the war was not enough to shake the recovery of the entire world economy.
But with the adjustment of global stock markets and the soaring rise of commodities, people have truly felt that the damage of this war to the world economy is far beyond people's imagination.
From an economic point of view, this is a war without winners.
War-torn Ukraine, and Russia, which has plunged to the stock market and is afraid to open, needless to say, the European Union, which has worsened the energy crisis, and even the United States, which is widely believed to be watching the fire from the other side and profiting from the fish, is not necessarily the hidden winner of the war.
The Russo-Ukrainian war pushed up commodity prices, which left the Already high inflation of the United States in a state of limbo, and the Fed was in a dilemma.
What's more, when the Huge Dollar Foreign Exchange Reserves of the Central Bank of Russia cannot be used because of the US freeze, one of the direct effects is that the countries that hold the US dollar in their hands cannot help but reconsider their asset allocation - if the US dollar in their hands is only recognized by the United States as their own asset, is the US dollar in the hands of countries still "real US dollars"?
As Hong Hao, managing director of BOCOM International, said: "This kind of dollar hegemonic sanctions have indeed seriously impacted the Russian financial system in the short term, but it is impossible to do without reaction." ”
After the gunshots, there was no winner.
As the Herald Tribune of New York wrote after World War II:
"There is nothing left in Berlin, no houses, no shops, no transport, no government buildings... Berlin is now just a mountain of broken bricks and tiles."
Click to enter the feature:
Storm Eye Special Issue | The scars of the global economy under the Russo-Ukrainian War