The 2021-22 Premier League season has entered the final sprint stage, with the vast majority of teams having completed 29 rounds of matches. Currently, City are provisionally no. 1 with 70 points, with Liverpool trailing by one point. However, the probability of winning the title obtained by the big data model analysis of the data website The Analyst earlier showed that the probability of Manchester City winning the title was as high as 63.5%, while Liverpool was only 35.9%, and the remaining 0.6% belonged to Chelsea.
We know that this season's Premier League title is basically between Manchester City and Liverpool, and Chelsea only have a theoretical glimmer of hope, but is Liverpool so underoped?
Liverpool were the league champions in 19-20 and suffered widespread injuries at the back last season, eventually narrowly holding on to the top 4. But this season's Liverpool is obviously the king returned, the core players in the back line are far away from injuries, the frontcourt "thigh" Salah is full of firepower, and the winter window has added to the Colombian side "demon knife" Luis Díaz, and the strength of the team has risen steadily.
Since entering 2022, Liverpool have not lost in the league. Apart from a 2-2 draw with Chelsea on 3 January, the remaining nine league games have won all of them, narrowing the gap with Manchester City a little bit and now just one step away. What's even more frightening is that in these 9 league games, Liverpool kept a clean sheet in 7 games and only conceded 2 goals. A total of 25 goals were scored, averaging nearly 3 goals per game, and the strength of the offensive and defensive ends suffocated the opponent.
The only explanation is that City's difficulty is relatively low for the remaining fixtures. Of the remaining 9 rounds of opponents, 4 are in the top 10. Liverpool have 6! In addition to direct conversations with Manchester City in the 32nd round, Liverpool will also face two BIG6 teams from Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, as well as Wolves, who play spoilers.
In addition, in terms of competing for 4, Arsenal have the highest probability, reaching 57.7%. Arsenal are currently 1 point ahead of Manchester United in the second round of the game and temporarily rank 4th, and the advantage is still obvious. Arteta's side have a hard time scoring points against the league's strongest teams, but they still have a good winning percentage against mid-level and lower-tier teams. Before losing to Liverpool in the last round, Arsenal were unbeaten in six consecutive rounds (5 wins and 1 draw). As long as they continue to maintain this forward momentum, the top 4 will be difficult to change hands.
Manchester United's probability of making it into the top 4 is 22%, up from Tottenham's 17.9%, which is a bit of a surprise. From the point of view of the state, Manchester United's stability is not much stronger than Tottenham Hotspur. And the last 9 rounds of the league Manchester United will encounter a number of vicious battles, Leicester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, these 4 games Manchester United is difficult to be optimistic. Coupled with the fact that Lonnick's team has repeatedly lost points on the lower middle and lower teams, it is hard to imagine that the probability of United finally reaching the top 4 is so high.
Conte's Tottenham have been in very unstable shape recently, and the hope of a 4 race is getting smaller and smaller. Tottenham Have only won 4 and lost 5 in the last 9 rounds, conceding 15 points. They were able to beat Manchester City 3-2, win United 4-0, Beat Everton 5-0, and concede points against mid- and lower-floor teams like Southampton and Burnley. The team's poor performances once annoyed Conte, and the "civil war insiders" were afraid of collapsing at Tottenham.
In short, judging from the current situation in the standings, the suspense of the championship is likely to continue to the end, but the suspense of the competition for 4 is not as white-hot as in previous seasons. Arsenal's advantage is the most obvious, and the rest of the team want to continue to suspense can only pray that the Gunners will concede points in the 2 rounds of the supplementary round. Once Arsenal have scored 6 points, it is difficult to chase 7 points in the 9 rounds, especially if Arsenal are relatively more stable.