The impact and enlightenment of the Russo-Ukrainian War on cross-strait relations and The impact on Taiwan

Author Liu Jincai Associate Professor, Department of Public Affairs, Fo Guang University

Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to participate in NATO and the European Union because Ukraine changed its national strategy and diplomatic route and leaned towards a pro-American route, and NATO's eastward expansion may deprive Ukraine of its role as a buffer between Russia and Europe, and from a geopolitical and strategic point of view, russia's national security is threatened, and then take so-called special military actions to march into Ukraine. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, the pro-Western Ukrainian government, although not assisted by NATO and the United States, was supported by loans, arms sales and military weapons, especially the launch of economic and trade sanctions and financial blockades against Russia.

One of the original purposes of Russia's attack on Ukraine was to overthrow the Zelenskiy government, and Ukraine's application to join NATO caused NATO to expand eastward, and Russia entered Ukraine for this purpose. At present, Ukraine no longer emphasizes that it must join NATO, and Russia has changed its words and does not seek to "overthrow the Ukrainian government", and the two sides have negotiated from time to time. After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the people of Taiwan society recently worried and debated that "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow" was worrisome and controversial; Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Taiwan authorities, claimed that Taiwan possessed natural dangers in the strait, geostrategic status, and constantly improved military defense will and combat strength; deputy leader Lai Ching-te advocated that "security in the Taiwan Strait should help itself and then be helped by others." Su Zhenchang once again threw out the so-called "broom theory of protecting Taiwan," which showed that Russia's invasion of Ukraine broke out into a war crisis, indirectly stimulating the sensitive political nerves of the Taiwan people.

Will the mainland adopt a non-peaceful approach or reunify Taiwan by force? Will the DPP authorities use the Russo-Ukrainian War to construct a sense of crisis and a "mango sense" and continue to promote the line of "resisting China and defending Taiwan," so as to embed itself in the US Indo-Pacific strategy and seek security and self-protection through the "United States in The War to Resist China"? However, observing the US military support for Afghanistan and Ukraine is not "unlimited" and "unreserved", due to the huge gap in the performance of china and the United States due to the new crown epidemic governance, China has gradually shown self-confidence including road, theory, system and cultural advantages, narrowing the distance between the comprehensive national strengths of the two major countries. From the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on cross-strait relations and Taiwan, there are mainly the following enlightenments and impacts.

First of all, the DPP authorities have used the Ukraine crisis to confirm the "political correctness" of the "Indo-Pacific strategy" and the "united United States to resist China" position, and strengthened the hostile relations between the two sides of the strait. Propose four countermeasures in response to the Russo-Ukrainian War, including: First, condemn Russia's infringement of Ukraine's sovereignty and call for a peaceful and rational settlement of the dispute; 2. Strengthen the response and preparation of military dynamics in the Taiwan Strait to ensure Taiwan's security; Third, comprehensively enhance the response to cognitive operations, in the face of foreign forces intending to manipulate the situation in Ukraine, strengthen the prevention of cognitive operations launched by foreign forces and local collaborators, and strengthen the clarification of false and false information, so as to stabilize the internal situation in society. Obviously, this is the use of the Ukrainian crisis to create a sense of crisis and a "mango sense" in Taiwanese society, so as to strengthen the "anti-China and taiwan" line and prove the rationality and necessity of "uniting with the United States to resist China".

Second, it is necessary to intensify the mainland's adoption of "using the legal system law" and "using the law to curb independence" to improve the country's anti-separatism and promote the formation of a unified legal system. During the Russo-Ukrainian War and coinciding with the two sessions of the National People's Congress, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council expressed its views and suggestions on the contributions and suggestions of the NPC deputies and CPPCC members on promoting the reunification of the motherland, saying that "we have conscientiously listened to and studied them." It shows that "we should unite compatriots on both sides of the strait, promote the situation in the Taiwan Strait from tense confrontation to relaxation and improvement, and then embark on the road of peaceful development, and lead cross-strait relations to continuously advance in the direction of reunification." Unification is the verdict of history and the trend of the times." In other words, during this period, there was a wave of talk of formulating a "National Reunification Law" or a "Motherland Reunification Law," which meant that the reunification agenda was gradually incorporated into the mainland's agenda, and at the present stage the mainland's Policy toward Taiwan still adheres to the main axes of "peaceful reunification," "gradual reunification through integration," and "opposing independence and promoting reunification."

In March 2005, the Third Session of the Tenth National People's Congress deliberated and passed the Anti-Secession Law. Article 1 of the Law clearly stipulates that "this Law is formulated in accordance with the Constitution in order to oppose and curb the splitting of the country by the Separatist forces of Taiwan independence, to promote the peaceful reunification of the motherland, to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait region, to safeguard state sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to safeguard the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation." Over the past 17 years since its implementation, the "Anti-Secession Law" has played a unique and important role in deterring separatist forces in the "Taiwan independence" plan, safeguarding cross-strait peace and stability, promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations, and advancing the process of cross-strait reunification. The mainland's Taiwan policy emphasizes the use of the legal system and the use of law to curb independence, which shows that the use of "non-peaceful means" has its own conditions and thresholds, and to curb the Radical Faction of Taiwan independence from crossing the bottom line and red line of the policy.

Repeatedly, in line with the US strategic line, it sacrificed Taiwan's economic and corporate interests and worsened Taiwan-Russia relations. After the United States announced sanctions against Russia, the DPP authorities also announced sanctions against Russia based on the needs of the so-called Indo-Pacific strategic "democratic alliance." This not only triggered Russia to include Taiwan in an unfriendly region, but also on March 10, Ukraine's deputy prime minister and digital minister Fedorov also named Taiwanese company Asus and called on it to end its partnership with Russia. Under the ideological role of "political correctness," the DPP authorities have not safeguarded the interests of Taiwan enterprises, but have instead called on ASUS to "actively cooperate" and resist Russia as a politically correct choice under the strategy of "uniting with the United States to resist China." By maintaining a pace of consistency with the United States and EU countries, they have proved that Taiwan is the "defender" of the Western Democratic Front alliance headed by the United States. This unbalanced international strategy makes it impossible for Taiwan to obtain its own political and economic security benefits through diversified and balanced channels.

In fact, Russia's substantive relations with the Taiwan region are far closer than those between the Taiwan region and Ukraine. In 2021, Taiwan's export trade to Russia totaled $1.32 billion, with finished semiconductor products and calculator products accounting for a large proportion, especially Asus Computer, whose e-sports notebook sales accounted for 30% of the Russian market. As a result of Taiwan's boycott of Russia, Taiwan will withdraw from the Russian market once it finds an alternative product. In line with this imbalance strategy, ASUS not only announced that shipments to Russia have completely stopped, but also announced that it would donate NT$30 million to the "Ukrainian Humanitarian Relief Special Account", which is contrary to the laws and mechanisms of the market and the politically correct choice of enterprises, and it is difficult to achieve the goal of maximizing profits.

Moreover, the United States did not send troops to assist in the defense in the Russo-Ukrainian War, changing the Taiwan people's belief that cross-strait conflict will inevitably support Taiwan's thinking. Taiwan's substantive relations with Ukraine are far less close than those with Russia. However, based on the line of "resisting China and defending Taiwan," the DPP authorities have embedded Taiwan's political and economic interests in the US Indo-Pacific strategic framework, becoming members of their so-called "democratic alliance," playing the role of containing Chinese mainland in the Indo-Pacific strategy, and exerting the deterrent effect of "uniting with the United States to resist China" by establishing a US-Taiwan alliance. The US Biden administration has repeatedly declared that it does not support "Taiwan independence" and opposes "Taiwan independence," but it has declared that its commitment to Taiwan is "rock solid." At the same time, a series of friendly Taiwan programs have been introduced, the scale and quality of arms sales have been strengthened, Taiwan's defense forces have been strengthened, and the goal of "resisting reunification by force" has been achieved.

Observing the intervention of NATO and the role of the United States from Russia's military operations into Ukraine, it is clear that Western powers are inducing Ukraine to change the traditional pro-Russian route and shift to a pro-European and pro-American route, and their support for Ukraine is not unreserved and still relatively limited. The United States itself has been severely hit by the new crown epidemic and the decline of comprehensive national strength, its status as a global superpower is being lost, while China's economic strength is the second in the world, the total economic volume is 70% of the United States, the new crown epidemic has shown the "rule of China" and "China model" governance results, for the hegemonic status of the fall of Europe and the United States, a "China threat theory" and "study of the bottom pit trap" controversy have been noisy.

From the perspective of the mainland, the DPP authorities have taken advantage of the situation in Ukraine to deliberately play up the "China threat theory" and "deliberately raise the tone of cross-strait confrontation and seeking independence, and even arrogantly advocate war"; From the "Kabul moment" to the "situation in Ukraine," the people of Taiwan have realized that the ultimate fate of the "pawns" may be "outcasts." After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the US government said that "under any circumstances it will not send troops to Ukraine"; According to polls, more than half of the people in Taiwan realize that the United States will not send troops to aid Ukraine. Ma Ying-jeou, former leader of the Taiwan region, reminded that once a conflict crisis breaks out between the two sides of the strait, the so-called united commitment to strengthening its defense against Taiwan will only be to sell weapons and provide intelligence, and the opportunity to send troops to assist in defense is quite small. Secretary of State Blinken also only mentioned that the United States would help Taiwan increase its defense capabilities, rather than sending troops to assist in defense.

Finally, the Russo-Ukrainian war enlightened Taiwanese society that Ukraine's insistence on participating in NATO and the European Union instead intensified Russia's security threat and adopted a "pre-emptive" approach to deal with it, increasing the risk of war. Ukraine is a member of the United Nations, and when it moves toward pro-European and American foreign relations, it even participates in NATO military alliances, but raises Awareness of Russia's national security threats. However, Taiwan is not currently a member of the United Nations, the Taiwan issue is an internal affair issue, and it is particularly sensitive to external forces intervening in both sides of the Taiwan Strait; therefore, the Taiwan policy emphasizes "resolutely smashing the separatist plot of Taiwan independence, resolutely curbing interference by external forces, and solidly promoting the peaceful development and integrated development of cross-strait relations." It can be said that the main axis is centered on "opposing independence and promoting reunification" and "gradual reunification through integration," and especially emphasizes curbing interference by external forces. Obviously, the mainland has learned that the United States, Japan, and other foreign forces are interfering in cross-strait issues and using the "Taiwan to control China" strategy to suppress China's development opportunities, complete national reunification, and national rejuvenation.

The Russo-Ukrainian war mainly involved Russia's recognition of Ukraine, which disappeared as a buffer against NATO and the European Union, thus determining that this threatened Russia's national security. However, Taiwan's participation in the Indo-Pacific strategy and its involvement in the encirclement of China have not only become a pawn in threatening the mainland's security; At the same time, it is also considered by the mainland to be "uniting with the United States to resist China," "relying on the United States to respect oneself," "relying on the United States for independence," and "resisting reunification by force." The role they play is not only a threat to national security, but also a difficulty in enhancing national reunification. Since the Russo-Ukrainian War, the United States has strengthened its commitment to Taiwan, not only sending a delegation to Taiwan for exchanges, but also visiting Taiwan by former Secretary of State Pompeo, and even declaring that Taiwan is a "sovereign independent" country. When Lai Qingde met with the delegation, he even raised Taiwan's willingness to participate in the quadrilateral security dialogue. Such an approach is likely to deepen the suspicions of the mainland authorities.

Therefore, this will not only strengthen the mainland's "resolute opposition to Separatist Acts of Taiwan independence, but also "resolutely oppose interference by external forces." There is no such sentence in the 2021 Government Work Report, and it is more realistic and targeted to add this sentence to the 2022 Government Work Report. At the same time, the 2022 government work report calls for "compatriots on both sides of the strait to work together in harmony and create a glorious and great cause of national rejuvenation." This is different from the mention in 2021 of "promoting cross-strait exchanges and cooperation, integrated development, and jointly creating a better future for the rejuvenation of the nation", "cross-strait" and "compatriots on both sides of the strait" as different concepts, the former is more extensive, the latter is relatively narrow. The concept of "two sides of the Taiwan Strait" includes the Taiwan authorities, various political forces, and the people. The Taiwan compatriots in the concept of "compatriots on both sides of the strait" are relatively small in scope, and the People in Taiwan who tend to identify with the fact that both sides of the Strait belong to the same country, and the people who firmly support "Taiwan independence" separatism are not in the category of compatriots.

Basically, the global strategy and Indo-Pacific strategy promoted by the United States are mainly based on the priority of the national interests of the United States, and the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the declaration of non-intervention in the Russo-Ukrainian war have led to the disappointment of its allies in the commitments made by the United States. Therefore, when the DPP authorities declare that "the US side is supporting Taiwan," "the US commitment to Taiwan is as firm as a rock," and that Taiwan-US relations are at their best in history at the present stage, the people of Taiwan understand that once a conflict breaks out between the two sides of the strait, Taiwan must face the cost of conflict with the mainland alone. On March 15, the Taiwan Institute for International Strategic Studies and the Taiwan Institute for International Studies conducted a survey of the situation in the Taiwan Strait triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukrainian territory, and found that the United States did not support Taiwan, and 56.2% of the public believed that Taiwan was not capable of resisting military action on the mainland alone. In response to the issue of "extending the compulsory service period of the National Army", 69.6% of the people also expressed support and 21.0% did not support it. Obviously, the Russo-Ukrainian war has indeed aroused the doubts of the people in Taiwan, and more than half of the people believe that taiwan will be difficult to resist the mainland's military threat or military reunification without the support of the United States. However, the contradiction is that most of the people in Taiwan believe that the United States will not intervene in the war in the Taiwan Strait.

In other words, the people of Taiwan have become more rational because of the Ukrainian crisis and have assessed the problem more pragmatically. According to the above-mentioned poll, as to whether the United States will send troops to assist Taiwan in the event of war between the two sides of the strait, 42.7 percent of the people in Taiwan believe that the United States will send troops to assist, while 47.3 percent think that it will not, believing that the United States will not send troops in proportion to the higher proportion than it will send troops; If you compare the Taiwan Strait security poll published in October 2020, more than half of the people at that time believed that the United States would send troops to assist Taiwan, which was relatively higher than this survey. This shows that in the past two years, the confidence of the Taiwan people in sending troops to support Taiwan by the United States has changed and has declined. This change in public opinion has led to a change in the choice of strategy for the development of cross-strait relations in the future, with 77.3 percent of the people believing that "peaceful exchanges" should be maintained, and only 16.1 percent believing that they should continue to "resist China and protect Taiwan."

Although the United States emphasizes that it will strengthen Taiwan's defense capability, it does not mean that it will send troops to assist in defense, and this kind of "strategic ambiguity" of the United States has also made Taiwan society gradually realize that it should change the line of "uniting with the United States to resist China" and shift to a balanced strategy of "friendship with the United States and China." Therefore, the Russo-Ukrainian war also strengthens the Taiwan people's preference for active consultation and dialogue with the mainland in order to maintain the framework of cross-strait peace and stability relations and thus reduce the risk factor of war. From the recent Negotiations and Consultations between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has said that it will not overthrow the Ukrainian government, and Ukraine has also said that it will not deliberately seek to join NATO. If the DPP authorities openly announce that they will abandon any form of "Taiwan independence," the mainland will not use non-peaceful means to handle the Taiwan Strait issue, and the two sides of the strait will be able to carry out rational and peaceful interaction and pursue cross-strait reunification and development on the basis of exchanges and cooperation.