Changing the trajectory of history does not necessarily require earth-shattering events. At least, in the NBA, that kick out, that leap, may change the trajectory of history.
Far from mentioning, in the past two years, Kyrie Irving, the Nets, LeBron James have all become "victims", and now Stephen Curry has also suffered such a bad luck.
On March 17, Beijing time, Marcus Smart's leap may have changed the fate of the Warriors this season and shaken the territory of this season's championship.
According to the latest news, Curry, who was hit by Smart in the left ankle, will be suspended indefinitely. X-rays showed curry's left ankle ligament strain, and the only good news was that there were no fractures and no structural injuries. But even so, Curry will still be forced to take a timeout, and there may be a regular season reimbursement.
The Warriors are optimistic about Curry's pre-playoff comeback, but how long Curry will be sidelined is unknown until foot injury expert Richard Ficker's further examination of Curry is available.
At present, the Warriors have not officially released curry's injury information, ESPN and "The Athletic" two authoritative US media can only obtain some information from the Warriors' internal sources, and then medical experts can use their many years of experience in medical practice to make a prediction based on this information. Now only curry is known for injuring the ligament in his left foot, but it is not certain which ligament he injured and the extent of the ligament strain, which makes it impossible to predict how long Curry will be truncated.
According to the experience of medical experts, in the most optimistic situation, Curry only needs 7-10 days to recover and come back. But in the worst case scenario, if Curry needs surgery, he will be absent for 6-8 weeks. Judging from the attitude of Warriors insiders, Curry's injury is in the middle of the severity of the two, and his recovery date is more than 10 days, but it is not yet to the point of needing surgery, which is already a blessing in misfortune for the Warriors and Curry.
You know, james also had the same nightmare as Curry when he played the Eagles last year, when Solomon Hill pounced on the floor ball and pressed down on James's right ankle, James was absent for more than a month before returning, and after his comeback, his state did not return to the level before the injury, and the breakthrough was obviously affected.
The Warriors don't have time to worry about Curry's comeback, they first have to worry about the team's performance and record during Curry's absence. For the Warriors, Curry is an irreplaceable offensive core.
According to statistics, in the last 3 seasons, when Curry played, the Warriors recorded 83 wins and 49 losses, with a winning rate of 62.9%, ranking in the top four in the West and ranking second in the East. In Curry's absence, the Warriors lost 18-57, a winning percentage of only 24%, which is not as good as the Rockets, who have only won 17 wins and 52 losses this season. In other words, with Curry, the Warriors are the top team, in the ranks of the championship. Without Curry, the Warriors are the seeded team competing for the title.
Don't look at Curry's shooting rate of only 43.8% this season, three-point shooting rate is "only" 38%, compared to other years of Curry's career, this is definitely Curry's projection of small years, but his significance to the Warriors has not declined. When Curry was on the floor, the Warriors scored 114.1 points per 100 rounds, putting them in the fourth place in the league, and the Warriors' three-point shooting rate was as high as 37.4%. When Curry was not on the floor, the Warriors scored only 103.7 points per 100 rounds, the 29th place in the league, only slightly higher than the Thunder, and the Warriors' three-point shooting rate was only 33.5%.
Don't underestimate Curry's defensive performance, in a small sample, he was indeed named by Luka Doncic, but in the large sample, Curry was on the floor when the Warriors defended better, conceding only 103.4 points per 100 rounds, and when he was not on the floor, the figure increased to 106.8 points.
Combining attack and defense, Curry was on the floor, and the Warriors won 10.7 points per 100 rounds. And when Curry wasn't on the floor, the Warriors lost 3.1 points per 100 possessions. In terms of the influence of a team, only a few stars in the league, such as Jokic and Embiid, can match Curry, who are all MVP candidates.
Now that Curry is injured, his regular-season appearances could be fixed at 64, which will trigger a chain reaction. The first is Curry's personal honor, before the injury, Curry was a popular candidate for the best defensive team first team backcourt player. But now, Curry and another favourite, Chris Paul, are recuperating from injuries, can the two new stars, Ja Morant and Luka Doncic, hit the all-rookie team?
Curry was injured at this juncture, and the Warriors still had to worry about the team's record and ranking. The Warriors are currently in Third Place in the West, one win behind the Grizzlies and nine wins behind the Suns. The Warriors had no hope of catching up with the Suns, and they still had hope of overtaking the Grizzlies to rise to no. 2 in the West, but now, the Warriors' hopes are getting slimmer, and they may not even be stable in the 3rd place in the West, not impossible to fall to the 4th or even 5th place in the West.
The Warriors have 12 games left, the overall schedule difficulty, their remaining opponents average win rate of 49.1%, the Grizzlies remaining opponents average 52.5%, jazz this data is 53.2%, the three teams of the Warriors' schedule difficulty is more relaxed, theoretically can surpass the Grizzlies, after the 3rd place.
But now one is more than the variable of Curry's injury, and the other is that the Warriors still have direct games with the Grizzlies, Suns and Jazz, and they have 8 of their last 12 games on the road and 4 back-to-back. Once the strong and strong lose the game, back-to-back playing weak team rotation veteran overturn, the Warriors' ranking can not be improved, but may decline.
The Warriors are now only 3.5 wins ahead of the Jazz and The Lone Ranger, and the strongest challenge for the Warriors is actually the Lone Ranger. The Lone Rangers have won eight of their last 10 games with a good momentum, and their remaining schedule is only 24th in difficulty, with an average win rate of just 47.8 percent against their opponents. If the current momentum continues, the Lone Ranger is expected to rush to the 3rd place in the West, while the Warriors may be squeezed into the 4th or 5th place.
In the worst case scenario, the Warriors may have to play in the first round of the playoffs while playing without home advantage while letting curry, who has just returned, find form. Perhaps, the Warriors do not have to worry about Curry's state adjustment ability, in the 2016 playoffs, Curry was injured in the first round of the Rockets, and the second round of the Blazers came back in the fourth game, but he rebounded in the first game of the 40 points. But the Warriors have to worry about chemistry, Curry, Thompson and Green have only played 11 minutes this season, and if You count Andrew Wiggins, the Warriors four didn't play a minute together.
Curry's form had improved significantly before the injury, and his true shooting percentage in March was as high as 67.2%, the highest single-month record this season. But now, Curry's newly adjusted form has been ended by injuries, which has to be said to be a big regret.
What can the Warriors do next? Thompson and Green play most of the time, and coming up with better performances is the Warriors' base game. The Warriors must also find growth points while maintaining the basic set in order to play as high a winning percentage as possible in the last 12 games.
The first point of growth was Jordan Poole, who averaged 23.3 points per game in March, shooting 56 percent from the field and 50 percent from three-point range. Poole does not have curry's strong containment power and cannot be the core of the tactics, but as a scoring point he can still rely on. The data shows that when Curry is not on the floor, Poole and Green are on the floor at the same time, and he can score 26.4 points per 36 minutes, with a true shooting rate of 62.3%.
Another point of growth is that Wiggins can return to pre-All-Star level after returning from illness, he did not score 20 points in 14 consecutive games, and he only scored 20+ in 1 game after the All-Star Game, compared with 16 games before.
Curry's injury is not the end of the world for the Warriors, after all, it is not the kind of serious injury that can lead to their reimbursement. But with the Warriors' current situation, the Warriors are not as optimistic as Green said, "No matter how many we are in the ranking, we can compete for the championship."
The Warriors had been walking in the long, dark tunnel for many days, but as Thompson and Green returned, they had seen the light of the exit. But suddenly, the boulder fell, blocking the warrior's way to the exit. Now, the Warriors can only continue to find an exit with worry and longing, as they have been in the past 1,005 days.