I believe that in the long run, the stock market is a weighing machine, and for people without faith, the stock market will always be a voting machine - Duan Yongping
In the past two days, the continuous decline of Chinese stocks has aroused the attention of the market, of course, the current decline has completely departed from the fundamentals of the company, but it is actually a game of market sentiment.
In fact, due to the strong linkage of the Hong Kong and US stock markets, the decline of Chinese stocks will affect the direction of Hang Seng Technology to a certain extent. At present, in the case of little change in the company's fundamentals, although the logic of Chinese stocks has changed somewhat, this is not a reason to fall at all.
So, when will Chinese stocks stop falling?
I think that the current trend depends entirely on the news surface, and the current trend has completely stopped falling and rebounded violently. In addition, whether Chinese stocks and Hang Seng Technology constituent stocks can get out of the current downward trend, the leading role is very important, so in addition to the news, Ali, Tencent and other Internet giants have risen by more than 20% in the intraday on March 16, which is very important for the current Chinese stocks.
On March 14, Duan Yongping, a well-known investor known as "China's Buffett", sent two messages in a row, saying that a batch of 145 Apple put expired this Friday and was sold a long time ago. This money can be considered to put half on Tencent.
On March 15, Duan Yongping continued to send messages saying that he was ready to exchange BRKB for points tomorrow, and he did not wait.
In the case of such a sharp decline in Chinese stocks and Hang Seng Technology, Duan Yongping sent two messages in a row, which revealed many key elements.
First, sell Apple and increase Tencent.
In fact, as we all know, since Buffett opened a position in Apple in 2016, Berkshire has been increasing its position until apple has become Berkshire's largest heavy stock, with a position ratio of nearly half. And in recent years, with the intensification of market volatility, Buffett has not reduced his position for Apple, and Yongping has chosen to reduce his position during this period, which explains what?
On the one hand, it shows that the US stock market has reached a stage high point this year, and under the expectation of interest rate hikes, the pressure on US Internet companies is not small. Therefore, Duan Yongping's choice to sell apples is actually more correct. Of course, this is not to say that Duan Yongping's investment is necessarily higher than Buffett's level. It's just that Buffett is more of a defense of a large position, while Duan Yongping is relatively flexible because of his relatively small position.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that many of Duan Yongping's investment styles are also born out of Buffett, and he generally buys a stock to think in ten years.
Second, sell Berkshire and increase tencent.
Berkshire is actually very closely bound to Apple at the moment, because its main position is on Apple, and if Apple falls, Berkshire is bound to lose both.
Duan Yongping once said that buying stocks is buying the company, and buying a company is buying the company's future cash flow discount. For Tencent, Duan Yong believes that "there is no difference between a game company providing consumers with good games and other companies providing good products, and there is no problem of conscience." I personally like to play games, and I don't think there's anything wrong with playing games, but it's not good if you overdo everything. ”
He also said, "I feel that Tencent should still be strong after 10 years, but 50 years is not easy to say." ”
Since 2018, Duan Yongping bought Tencent, and the speed of its purchase has been improving last year, according to statistics:
On August 4, 2021, Duan Yongping said on social media that he bought some Tencent Holdings today, and then fell and bought more;
On August 18, Duan Yongping said that he bought some Tencent and Ali today;
On March 9, 2022, Duan Yongping continued to post that I plan to add a warehouse every 10% drop;
On March 14, it issued a statement saying that it sold Apple and added tencent;
On March 15, Duan Yongping continued to post and continue to buy Tencent.
……
According to the current rhythm, in the future, Duan Yongping will continue to increase tencent positions will become a high probability event, and the process may continue, tencent has fallen below 300 Hong Kong dollars / share, as of the close of March 15, from its highest point of decline has exceeded 60%, compared with the current 12 times the price-earnings ratio, Tencent has indeed been underestimated.
On March 16, Tencent's intraday surge of more than 20% proved that Duan Yongping's judgment was still relatively accurate.
Overall, I think the market sentiment is in place, the rally has begun, and with the panic expectations gradually released, there is a high probability that the Chinese stocks and Hang Seng Technology will find the real bottom in the next month, so all we have to do is be patient.