Old Week
Abstract: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict entered the twentieth day, everyone is very concerned about the progress of the war, but mainly staring at the war around the Ukrainian capital Kiev, but ignoring the war situation on the southern front, and now the situation on the southern front, the situation of the Russian army is more unfavorable, the strength of the troops is no advantage to speak of, and even the danger of being divided, surrounded and annihilated by the Ukrainian army.
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The Russian-Ukrainian conflict entered the twentieth day, everyone is very concerned about the progress of the war, but mainly focus on the war around the Ukrainian capital Kiev, but ignore the situation on the southern front, and now the situation on the southern front, the situation of the Russian army is more unfavorable, the strength of the troops is no advantage to speak of, and there is even a danger of being divided, surrounded and annihilated by the Ukrainian army.
When the Russian army was on the Battlefield in Ukraine, it was divided into three operational directions, the northern, eastern and southern fronts, the northern front was the capital Kiev, and the eastern front was the Donbass region, which received more attention in comparison, especially Kiev, which can be said to be the focus of attention. Only the southern front, almost silent, except for the initial uncertain landing of Odessa, and the subsequent occupation of Kherson by the Russians, there is no more news, so it is also ignored.
In the case of the Russian army, the same is true, the southern front is obviously not the main direction of operations, compared with the northern and eastern fronts, the number and quality of the troops invested are much worse. And this just laid the groundwork for the very dangerous operation on the southern front.
The main target of the Russian army on the southern front was not Odessa, which had been hyped up in the early stages of the war, but along the Kherson-Nikolayev line, turning northeast, taking Klivorog, taking control of the H11 national highway, and then detouring to Dnipropelobavsk (abbreviated as Dnipro). Dnipro was the stronghold of the Ukrainian chaebols, which was the key target of the Russian army's southern front. However, from Zaporizhia to the north, it was only possible to advance on the left bank of the Dnieper River, the terrain was relatively narrow, the troops could not be spread, and they had to resort to far-reaching detours.
The ultimate goal of the Russian army was to cut off the retreat route of the Eastern Army of the Ustroika in the Donbass region, completely remove the threat of the Ukrainian army to the Donbass region, and ensure the security of the two republics of Doneesk and Luhansk.
On the southern front, Krivor Rog is a key node, and if you can't take Crevo Rog, you can't open up national highway H11. Ukraine is now in the thaw period of the land, the fields are in a state of "turning pulp", even the tracked vehicles such as tanks are difficult to carry out off-road traffic, so the Russian military route can only rely heavily on roads. Therefore, the importance of Krivorrog is highlighted. Speaking of Krivorog, by the way, now Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is a Krivorog, and now his support rate has soared to 90%, and the support rate in his hometown is certainly higher, and if the Russian army advances to Krivorrog, what kind of resistance it will encounter, you can imagine.
Without the road, the Russian army is actually difficult to maneuver, even if nikolayev is taken down, it can only use the M14 national highway to attack Odessa to the west, but the terrain east of Odessa is also very narrow, and the troops cannot be expanded, which is why Odessa has not been taken down so far.
In addition, it should be pointed out that the Dnieper River is not an ordinary river, many rivers are very wide, the widest point even reaches 5,000 meters, almost a lake. To cross the river in the lower reaches of the Dnieper River, it is necessary to control the three cities of Zaporizhia, Dnipro and Kremmenchug, which are also the most traditional crossings of the Dnieper River, and only by controlling these three crossings can we completely cut off the retreat of the Ukrainian army in the Eastern Region. In the detour to attack the cities of Zaporizhia and Dnipro, the Russians themselves needed bridges, so they never bombed bridges on the Dnieper River since the beginning of the war, and these bridges have been preserved unharmed to this day. In fact, from this point, we can also see some hints of the Russian military's combat intentions.
Similarly, south of Zaporizhia, the Russian army could only move in the narrow area of Dede on the left bank of the Dnieper, which led to very slow progress, and had been struggling on the Kherson-Nikolaev line for more than ten days, because there was no way to effectively control the road, and there was no way to advance to Krivoroig. Without Krivorog, there is no way to control national highway H11, and there is no way to continue to advance and take down Dnipro.
The current situation is that the Russian army has only occupied Kherson, but it is only barely occupied, and small-scale street battles still occur from time to time. And Kherson is only the first step of the goal, the next Nikolayev, Krivoyrog has not yet been able to win, as for the main target Dnipro is far away. As for the strategic goal of cutting off the retreat route of the Ukrainian army in the Donbass region of Udong, it is even more impossible to talk about.
The reason for the current rapid progress of the Russian army is, first, the lack of troops. The southern front was originally a secondary direction, and the number of troops in the total number of troops thrown into the Ukrainian battlefield was at most one-third, that is, no more than 60,000. At present, the number of the Russian 1st Tank Army, the 29th Army and the 47th Army has been found on the northern front, but not a single Russian military unit has been seen on the southern front. Moreover, among the troops participating in the war on the southern front, not only were there no famous elite divisions, but there were also many ministry of internal affairs troops, which were obviously a series of cities that the Russian army thought could soon occupy in southern Ukraine, and these ministry of internal affairs troops were used to take over the cities and maintain order in the cities. The troops of the Ministry of the Interior, not to mention the field battles, are also very poor in street combat capabilities, and at most they are armed police. But now it has encountered the stubborn resistance of the Ukrainian army, and the strategy adopted by the Ukrainian army is to shrink to the city and fight with the Russian army in the street. Every kilometer deeper than the Russian army, it must leave troops to garrison the supply line, and each town has to go through street battles, and it is necessary to invest a large number of troops, and taking a town also leaves a garrison, which further disperses the troops. There are such a few troops on the southern front, facing so many towns, the strength of the troops is simply not enough, and the more it advances in depth, the more difficult the shortage of troops will become. Simply put, the staying power is getting smaller and smaller, and the natural progress is getting slower and slower.
The second reason is weak logistics. The supply lines of the Russian army on the southern front mainly came from the Crimean Peninsula, although it was not far from the distance. However, Crimea only belonged to Russia in 2014, and its own economic foundation is weak, which is actually very difficult to ensure the supply of such a large army, which is one of the reasons for the slow progress of the Russian army on the southern front. Moreover, from the Russian mainland to Crimea is mainly by sea, and although the Ukrainian Navy is very weak, it still caused certain losses to the Russian army. On March 7, it was rocket-fired and sank the Russian Black Sea Fleet's latest type 2216 stealth frigate "Vasily Bykov". Russian combat ships will still be sunk, and transport ships will be even more vulnerable.
Recently, I saw a strange article saying that the Russian army occupied Uriupol on the southern front, opened up the Donbass and Crimeade land corridors, and made a major breakthrough.
This is obviously the Russian powder with rhythm, pure nonsense. First, Uriupol is the Eastern Front, not the Southern Front. Uriupol is administratively part of the Doneesk Oblast, less than 100 km from Doneesk in a straight line. Second, Uriupol, which was next to the Donesk Republic, was not declared occupied until 14 March, and was besieged for nineteen days, and now Uriupol has been blown to rubble, but the street fighting is still ongoing, and the Ukrainian army is still resisting. On 15 March, the day after the Russians announced the occupation of Uriupol, Major General Oleg Mitiev, commander of the Russian 150th Motorized Infantry Division, was killed in Uriupol, the fourth Russian major general to die in Ukraine. Thirdly, Uriupol was captured by the Donenessk militia forces with the support of the Russians and with the support of the Russians on the Eastern Front. Although the Russian army on the southern front occupied Kherson, from Crimea to Donbass, it was necessary to pass through Kherson Oblast and Zaporozh Oblast, and at present the Russian army has not yet controlled Zaporozh Oblast, but has occupied the Zaporozh Nuclear Power Plant, and even the capital Zaporoz has not been taken, and it is still far from opening up. Fourth, what land corridors do Donbass and Crimea need? Donbass and Crimea have ports, and sea access is easy and smooth, and there is no urgent need to open land corridors. Even if such a land corridor is opened, it is still very fragile, and it may be cut off and penetrated by the Ukrainian army at any time, how many troops need to be invested to ensure the smooth flow of this corridor?
The Russians on the southern front did have a strategic plan to cut off the back road of the Donbass region, but this cut-off was not to occupy a point in Uriupol, but to control the entire left bank of the Dnieper River, so as to truly cut off the retreat of the Ukrainian army in the Eastern Region. The Russian army on the southern front is simply out of reach from this strategic goal.
The Russian army on the southern front is now facing not only the inability to complete the predetermined objectives, the inability to capture the Dnipro, but also a more sinister fate. At present, the Russian army is advancing slowly along the Kherson-Nikolaev line, with its flanks exposed and only one road in the rear. The 3 brigades of the Russian army formed a long snake array, and the flanks were all exposed to the attack of the 4 brigades of the Ukrainian army on the southern front. If the Ukrainian army finds the unfavorable situation of the Russian army, dares to take the initiative to attack, uses 2 brigades to contain 2 brigades of the Russian army, and concentrates 2 brigades to surround and annihilate 1 brigade of the Russian army that has penetrated the deepest, not to mention the total annihilation of this brigade, it is entirely possible to eat half of it. If the Ukrainian army found that the Russian army was so weak on the southern front, and decisively increased its strength to the southern front, it would not only deal a heavy blow to the Russian army on the southern front, but even enter Crimea, because Crimea is now very empty, then the situation will be more complicated.
Therefore, the situation facing the Russian army on the southern front is actually very dangerous, as long as the Ukrainian army decisively launches a counterattack, it is almost a must-kill situation, and there is no remedy for the backhand. Because the southern front was originally a secondary direction, the lone army was deep, the troops were thin, and they could not get the help of the Russian army on the northern and eastern fronts, and the Russian army on the northern and eastern fronts was now already a mud bodhisattva crossing the river itself, and even if they had the heart to help, they could not draw troops.
Therefore, among the three Russian armies on the northern, eastern and southern fronts, the southern front is in the most dangerous situation. If the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack, the southern front would be the most ideal direction, and it could have a major impact on the entire war and even the post-war pattern.
It depends on whether the Ukrainian army dares to take a shot.
(The picture of this article is from the network)
Lao Zhou, whose real name is Zhou Ming, once used the network name Guangting, has long been engaged in the study of military history, and has served as a guest of military columns on Phoenix Satellite TV and Shanghai Television for many times. He has published more than 20 military books, which can be consulted and purchased in the micro-store "Zhibingtang Bookstore" and a treasure online store "Zhibingtang Bookstore". Now there is a personal column in the Himalayas, "Old Zhou Military", which produces military audio programs. In major video platforms, the "Old Zhou New Observation" video number has been opened to interpret military hotspots, please support.