The Russo-Ukrainian War has attracted widespread attention from the world, as has the Orient. In the Far East, in addition to the close attention paid by the mainland people, Taiwan's concern may be even stronger, especially the Taiwan authorities are worried about their own fate and want to get some comfort from it by studying and judging the war situation between Russia and Ukraine.
The Russo-Ukrainian War formed two opposing views among the people of the mainland, and the holders of each view would say "never wake up the sleeping one", or "Summer worms must not be frozen with them".
Just as there are a thousand Hamlets in the eyes of a thousand people, different people have different Russo-Ukrainian wars in their eyes.
In fact, observing the Russo-Ukrainian war, I am afraid that what cannot be woken up is those Taiwan independence separatists. I am afraid that the most visionless person in the world is really a non-Taiwan independence element.
So, what did the Taiwan independence separatists see from the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Mr. Zhao Jianmin, dean of the Academy of Social Sciences of the Chinese Culture University in Taiwan, pointed out at a seminar on "Ukraine War and Security in the Taiwan Strait" on March 15 that some people in Taiwan do not agree with "Ukraine Today, Taiwan tomorrow" for three reasons:
The first is geostrategy. Arguing that the United States values Taiwan more than Ukraine;
Second, the geographical environment is different, Russia and Ukraine are adjacent to each other, but the two sides of the strait are separated by the Taiwan Strait;
The third is the economic supply chain, and Taiwan is an important chip production area.
In fact, from the Russo-Ukrainian War, The Taiwan independence separatists should understand the following points:
First, economic problems will not be a reason for Chinese mainland not to be united.
In view of the fact that some people in Taiwan believe that economic problems may restrict the mainland from using force, Mr. Zhao Jianmin has just refuted this. Mr. Zhao pointed out that Tsai Ing-wen is asked to quickly eliminate economic considerations, which are not considered factors in war. Before the Russo-Ukrainian War, Ukraine's policy had always adopted "anti-Russian defense" to stimulate Russia, didn't you know that Russia's invasion would cause serious damage to the Ukrainian economy? Doesn't Russia know that if it attacks Ukraine, it will be subject to massive economic retaliation from the West? Doesn't the United States know that when sanctioning Russia, especially in Europe, oil and gas rely heavily on Russia?
Taiwan independence separatists should understand that economic issues will not become an obstacle to the reunification of the motherland. After the outbreak of the Korean War, China went to fight in the DPRK for the sake of national security at the expense of national security, and now for the sake of the great cause of national reunification, how can it allow the economy to accompany the road to national reunification and the road to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation?
Second, Taiwan's supply chain is far less important and will not guarantee U.S. defense of Taiwan.
Europe and the United States have a GDP of 22.4 times that of Russia, and their military strength is nearly 4 times that of Russia, but neither the United States nor NATO is willing to come out against Russia. Chinese mainland the current population and output value are 10 times larger than Russia, if there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, will the United States be willing to endorse Taiwan? How much role can Taiwan play in the supply chain of the economy in the United States, in Europe, and in the world? Compared with Taiwan's supply chain, Russia's energy is just needed by Europe, which is the most basic supply chain and is more closely related to the people's livelihood of the European people. In this case, Europe, the United States, NATO who are willing to go into the water to go to war with Russia. Supply chain issues are absolutely unlikely to be a reason for the United States to assist in the defense of Taiwan in wartime, not to mention that assisting in defense may bring about a defeated United States.
Third, US President Joe Biden has repeatedly said that intervening in the War in Ukraine will cause a world war, so if the United States intervenes in the Taiwan Strait war in the future, the United States will not be afraid of World War III?
Russia has nuclear weapons, Chinese mainland does not? The Russo-Ukrainian War, NATO is so close to Ukraine, NATO did not dare to fight with Russia, the Taiwan Strait War, where is NATO? The United States does not have "NATO" as a backing in the Taiwan Strait region. Japan? Japanese politicians want to go to war, and Japan's constitution is still tied to it. Under such circumstances, is the United States willing to shoulder the war with the Chinese mainland alone?
Fourth, how can Taiwan's international status be compared with Ukraine's?
The United States has a different position for Taiwan and Ukraine, and the international community has a different position for Taiwan and Ukraine. Ukraine is a sovereign State recognized by the international community and has a legitimate seat in the United Nations. What about Taiwan? The United Nations recognizes only the "People's Republic of China" and now recognizes neither the "Republic of China" nor "Taiwan". What the international community, including the United States, recognizes is that there is only one China in the world, that is, the "People's Republic of China", and That Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China. Under the general understanding of Taiwan by the international community, if the mainland implements military reunification, it will not be considered "aggression," but will continue China's internal war of reunification.
Fifth, European and American countries can aid Ukraine and Taiwan.
On the one hand, the assistance of European and American countries to Ukraine is based on the recognition that Ukraine's national sovereignty has been "invaded", on the other hand, European and American countries also have realistic conditions for aid to Ukraine through Poland's land routes. Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, taiwan wants to get assistance from European and American countries? Even if the United States wants to "play a little hand", what about other countries? Moreover, even if some countries are willing to help, where does the assistance come from? Chinese the PLA Navy warships may have already locked the aid channel.
Sixth, can Ukraine persist in resisting, and can Taiwan?
Can Chinese mainland morale be the same as russia, Taiwan and Ukraine? In the battle for the reunification of the motherland, it is believed that the whole people on the mainland will be united and morale will be high. Not to say that there are 100 percent of the people who support it, it can be said with certainty that 99.999 percent of the people will support it, and the military and people on the mainland must be united in their hearts and minds and share the same hatred and hatred. Can Taiwan do it? Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, they are defending their motherland, they are in the situation of foreign aid, the will to resist is resolute, where does Taiwan's will to resist come from? Will the people of Taiwan believe that Su Zhenchang will fight the mainland to the end with a broom?
The people of Taiwan are probably more welcoming the arrival of the Platon Army.