The Rules of the Golden Globes have changed dramatically, and whose probability of being elected has increased dramatically?

On March 11, Beijing time, "French Football" announced that in order to make the selection process more consistent and clear, the selection rules for the Golden Globe Awards have been adjusted.

French Football said that compared with the previous Ballon d'Or selection mechanism, the new selection rules will be based on the performance of players in a single season (rather than a single calendar year in the past), so the 2022 Ballon d'Or will consider the performance of players in the 2021-22 season.

As the first time since the change of the Rules of the Ballon d'Or, the reference period for the 2022 (2021-22 season) Ballon d'Or will end at the Women's European Championship (July 16 to July 31, 2022). In other words, the upcoming World Cup in Qatar at the end of this year will not be included in the selection of the 2022 Golden Ball Awards, but will be considered as the selection scope of the 2023 Golden Globe Awards.

The change in the scope of the selection will undoubtedly make the suspense of this year's Golden Globe Winners soar. Although the season is not over yet, discussions about Ballon d'Or winners are already everywhere on soccer websites.

In the face of the new selection rules, many fans must have their own doubts: how will the change of rules affect the selection of this year's Golden Globe Awards? As things stand, who are the strongest contenders for the Ballon d'Or?

Rule analysis

To understand the competition for this year's Golden Globes, we need to understand the new selection mechanism of the Golden Globes.

According to the official information of French Football, the biggest change in the new Ballon d'Or selection mechanism is that it is no longer judged on the performance of individual natural year players, but instead based on single-season performance.

Combined with reality, the selection scope of the 2022 Golden Globe Awards will be defined in the 2021-22 season, rather than the previous 2022.

In addition, French Football said that although the jury of the Ballon d'Or has increased from 16 in 1956 to 170 in 2021, and it is all over the world.

But from another point of view, the increase in the number of people is not necessarily the same as the increase in judgment, those countries that do not have a rich football culture, nor historical legitimacy, nor are they easy to obtain important game images, really have enough expertise to complete the selection task?

With this in mind, French Football limits the jury to "elite" and limits it to true professionals. Therefore, only representatives of the top 100 FIFA countries and regions (the top 50 for women's football) are "eligible" to vote.

Another major change occurred during the specific judging process.

French Football once again emphasizes that the Ballon d'Or is an individual award. Therefore, from the overall logic, the Selection Criteria of the Golden Globe Awards should also be more focused on individual performance and the decisive and impressive personality of competitors.

Of course, football is a holistic sport after all, so while focusing on individual performance, we also add an examination of the collective performance of the team players play for.

Overall, French Football once again made it clear that the Ballon d'Or selection would first consider the individual performance of the player, removing the rule of considering the player's career.

So, judging by the performance of the individual players so far, who is most likely to win this year's Ballon d'Or?

As Highlighted by French Football, the Ballon d'Or awards will now prioritize the individual performance of players in a single season, no longer combining the player's career as in the past.

Based on this rule change, if we want to speculate on the players most likely to win the Ballon d'Or this season, we only need to compare the data they have achieved this season and the various honors they have achieved at the end of the season.

Let's start with the data. As of now, in the real-time ranking of the European Golden Boot in the five major leagues, Lewandowski, who plays for Bayern Munich, has scored 29 goals in 26 league games, averaging 1.12 goals per game, ranking first by absolute advantage.

In the current real-time ranking of the number of goals scored in the five major leagues, Benzema has participated in a total of 33 goals, and Levan and Salah have participated in a total of 30 league goals.

Looking at the Champions League, Levan has also performed amazingly – the Poland international has made eight appearances in the Champions League this season, scoring 12 goals and three assists, topping the Champions League top scorers list and also ranking 8th in the Champions League assist list.

In addition to Levan, Ajax's Alai has scored 11 goals in seven Champions League games, ranking second in the Champions League top scorers list; Benzema, who plays for Real Madrid, has scored eight goals in seven Champions League games, ranking third in the Champions League top scorers list; salah, who plays for Liverpool, has scored eight goals in eight Champions League games, ranking fourth in the Champions League top scorers list.

Judging from the personal data of the stars alone, levine still has a clear lead in European football so far. Whether in his home league or the Champions League, the Polish striker has delivered impressive goalscoring efficiency.

Of course, personal data is only one of the scope of the Golden Globe Awards, and the team's collective performance and season data cannot be ignored.

Currently in a strong position in the top five league title situations are Manchester City in the Premier League (4 points ahead of the 2nd place); Real Madrid in La Liga (10 points ahead of the 2nd place); Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga (7 points ahead of the 2nd place); AC Milan in Serie A (3 points ahead of the 2nd place); and Paris in Ligue 1 (15 points ahead of the 2nd place).

In the Champions League, Real Madrid, Liverpool, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Benfica have reached the quarter-finals. Although the second leg of the other four teams has not yet begun, there are many shortcomings in this season's performance, such as Juventus' poor performance in the early part of the season, once falling into the middle of the league, and now although it is back in the top 4 with the rise of the back, it is also difficult to win the championship.

It is unlikely that Villarreal and Chelsea will compete for the league title in La Liga, and there are no stars in the team who are currently eligible for the Ballon d'Or (Cristiano Ronaldo's performance has declined this season, and due to the team's overall poor performance, it may be difficult to compete for the Ballon d'Or).

Benfica is the top team in the Portuguese Premier League, but due to the limited influence of the Portuguese Premier League in Europe, it is difficult to become the team where the Ballon d'Or winners are located in the context of the current era.

Among the six teams that have been confirmed to reach the top 8 of the Champions League, Real Madrid's Benzema, Bayern Munich's Lewandowski and Liverpool's Salah have also performed well in the Champions League and are recognized as strong contenders for the Ballon d'Or. Although Manchester City has made great strides on all fronts, it has placed more emphasis on the overall play, although there are also outstanding stars such as De Bruyne and Mahrez, but it is difficult to have an impact on the Ballon d'Or this season.

In terms of the national team, the change in the selection rules has undoubtedly affected the final ownership of this year's Golden Globe Awards.

As mentioned above, the Ballon d'Or awards have been selected according to season performance since this year. Therefore, the reference time for the 2022 Ballon d'Or is until the end of the Women's European Championship (July 31) and will be announced in October this year.

In other words, the upcoming World Cup in Qatar at the end of the year will not be included in the selection of this year's Ballon d'Or. The direct beneficiaries of this rule change are undoubtedly those players with outstanding personal data and club performance, but the overall strength of the national team is more average, among which the representative is Lewandowski of Bayern Munich.

Compared with Benzema, the overall strength of the Polish national team played by Levan is not outstanding in Europe. In the World Cup in Russia, although Levan led the Polish national team to the final round, he only achieved a bad result of 1 win and 2 losses in the group stage, and was eliminated at the bottom.

At last year's European Championship, Poland's performance was even worse. They only achieved a bad result of 1 draw and 2 losses in the group stage, and they were eliminated at the bottom of the final ranking. Although Lewandowski scored three goals in three group games, he could not change the situation in which the overall strength of the team was relatively mediocre.

In contrast, Benzema and Salah, the former played for France as the defending champions of the World Cup, although they were eliminated by Switzerland in the European Championship, they played steadily in the subsequent World Cup European Qualifiers, ranking first in Group D with an unbeaten group result to advance to the finals.

El Salah's Egypt team reached the final in the recently concluded Africa Cup of Nations, and in the earlier World Cup Africa Qualifiers, Egypt achieved an unbeaten record of 4 wins and 2 draws in the group stage, overpowering Gabon and becoming the fourth team in the African region to advance to the final stages.

On the whole, since the Qatar World Cup will be included in the selection of next season's Ballon d'Or, it means that those stars who have performed well at the club but have average national team performance are more competitive.

In this case, france's blessing to Benzema has weakened, and Levan can somewhat ignore the influence of the Polish national team and completely define his performance within the club.

Looking at the details of the changes in the rules of the Ballon d'Or, it can be seen that the primary selection requirements set by French Football include a point of "decisive and impressive competition" in addition to individual performance.

In other words, a performance similar to Benzema's hat-trick against Paris would be a huge bonus to the judging process. If Real Madrid can overcome this and win the Champions League, even if Benzema is weaker than Levan in terms of personal data, he is definitely capable of competing for this year's Ballon d'Or.

Looking at the selection of the Golden Globe Awards in recent years, in addition to the quality of personal data, the team honor is also the focus of "French Football".

The so-called team honor can be roughly divided into club honor and national team honor, the most direct embodiment of club honor is the league championship and the Champions League champion; and the most direct embodiment of the national team honor is the continental competition results (European Cup, America's Cup) and World Cup results.

Combined with the current personal data of the stars and the overall performance of the team, Lewandowski, Benzema and Salah can be described as strong candidates for the Ballon d'Or – the teams played by Levan and Benzema are firmly at the top of the list in their respective leagues, And Liverpool, where Sadah plays, is close behind Manchester City; in the Champions League, the teams played by the three have also broken into the top 8.

In terms of personal data, Levan is currently at the top of the Bundesliga top scorers list; Benzema is at the top of the La Liga top scorers list (also at the top of the La Liga assist list); Salah is at the top of the Premier League top scorers list (also in the second place in the Premier League assist list). In the Champions League, the three occupy 3 of the top 4 of the top 4 goalscorers, and Lewandowski can also squeeze into the top 10 in the assists list.

The current performance of all three can be described as phenomenal, and if you want to compete in the final Ballon d'Or competition, whether you can win this season's Champions League is undoubtedly an important measure.

Seeing this, many fans may be slightly puzzled: why has the author been comparing forwards all along, but not including the midfielder and defender and even the goalkeeper in the selection scope of this year's Ballon d'Or Awards?

The reason is simple, thanks to the inherent advantages of forward players, it is difficult for non-forward players to win the Ballon d'Or. Looking at the non-forward Golden Globe winners in history, in addition to playing well in their respective clubs, whether they can represent the national team in major events that year is also an important measure.

From 2010 to 2021, only six non-forward players made it to the top three of the Ballon d'Or, namely Xavi, Iniesta, Neuer, Modric, Van Dijk and Jorginho.

Among them, Xavi and Iniesta won the World Cup in 2010; Iniesta won the European Championship in 2012; Neuer won the World Cup in 2014; Modric won the World Cup runner-up in 2018; and Jorginho won the European Cup in 2021.

Let's take the avant-garde as an example.

So far, there have been three defenders in football history who have won the Ballon d'Or, namely Beckenbauer, Matthias Summerle and Cannavaro (Beckenbauer and Summer are not even pure defenders).

Beckenbauer won the 1972 European Championship and runners-up at the 1976 European Championship, combined with his already high-profile performances at the club, and eventually won two Golden Ball Awards (Beckenbauer was able to win the Ballon d'Or in 1976, which also had a lot to do with helping Bayern achieve a three-consecutive Champions League).

In 1996, Summer won the European Championship for the German national team, which became an important help for him to beat Ronaldo to win the Ballon d'Or; Cannavaro, who won the Ballon d'Or in 2006, needless to say, in addition to helping Juventus win the Serie A title for two consecutive seasons, the centre-back performed well in the 2006 World Cup in Germany, helping Italy win the World Cup and finally winning the Golden Ball of the year.

Comparatively speaking, there is no major event similar to the European Cup and the World Cup in the selection range of this Year's Ballon d'Or, and even if there are still many non-forward players who play high, it is difficult to gain an advantage in the process of competing with forward players for the Ballon d'Or.

On the whole, the author believes that the winners of this year's Golden Ball Awards and even the top three may still be covered by forward players. Combined with our previous analysis, Lewandowski, Benzema and Salah have a higher relative probability.

However, from another point of view, the odds of non-forward players winning this year's Ballon d'Or have not completely disappeared, and I think it still has a lot to do with the final Champions League winner.

Considering that Lewandowski, Benzema and even Salah are currently playing for Bayern, Real Madrid and Liverpool, it means that if these three teams do not win the Champions League, other players still have the hope of reaching the Ballon d'Or.

For example, if Chelsea eventually win the Champions League, the Blues' popular goalkeeper Mendy can have an impact on the Ballon d'Or competition.

The Senegalese goalkeeper has already won the European Super Cup, Africa Cup and Club World Cup this season, in addition to the League Cup runner-up. He has also won many titles such as the best goalkeeper in the African Cup of Nations and the best goalkeeper in the European Super Cup this season.

If Mendy can eventually win the Champions League for Chelsea, his competitiveness in the Ballon d'Or awards will skyrocket, and even shake the seemingly stable Levan, Benzema and others (of course, Chelsea's poor league results are also a big hidden danger).

In other words, at present, Levan and others do perform high, but the selection of the Golden Globe Awards has a large span after all, and whether such a highlight performance can be maintained until the end of the season and help the team win major tournament championships is an important factor in measuring the Winners of the Golden Globe Awards.