To say that the panel leader, not BOE, in 2021 BOE achieved revenue of 219.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.89%, net profit of 25.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 413%, this performance is simply amazing. But no matter how good the performance can not resist the crazy killing of the market, BOE's stock price fell by 42% within 1 year. From a high of $7.65 per share in April 2021, it has fallen to the current $4.44 per share.
The reason why BOE has obtained excess profits in 2021 is roughly three reasons, on the one hand, it is hugging Apple's thigh, on the other hand, it benefits from the price increase of the panel, and the last aspect is naturally a large increase in sales.
At the end of 2020, since entering the Apple supply chain to supply OLED screens for Apple, it has begun to supply iPhone12, iPhone13, and Apple Watch OLED.
In 2021, the global semiconductor products are crazy to rise in price, LCD panels are no exception, the soaring of raw materials, the epidemic can not be effectively controlled Labor costs increase, the contradiction between supply and demand can not be improved in the short term, everything will be the spearhead of price increases. BOE naturally eats meat and soup, and its performance has greatly increased.
BOE's OLED shipments in 2021 will reach 60 million pieces, in addition to Apple's more than 10 million pieces, Huawei, Glory, Millet, etc., have also eaten a lot. After increasing the supply of Apple in 2022, BOE's performance will be more soaring.
BoE's current total market value of the stock price is 170 billion yuan, the price-to-book ratio is 1.31, and the dynamic price-earnings ratio is 6.61, which is not a high valuation according to the reason. But how much is BOE worth?
01, from the historical price-to-book ratio point of view, the current valuation is not too low.
BOE's historical price-to-book ratio was the highest at 11.12 during the 2007 bull market, the lowest was 0.5 in 2005, from the lowest value of each year, from 2002 to 2022, there were 10 years below the current record of 1.23, according to the average, there are also three years of historical average below the current 1.23, so BOE is not the lowest valuation time.
02. From the performance point of view, BOE has obvious cyclical characteristics.
BOE's performance has not been so good, the past ten years of operating income can be said to be a continuous positive growth, from 8.025 billion yuan in 2010 to 219.4 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 26 times in ten years, but the net profit in this decade is not as good as ever, but erratic, 2010 even a huge loss of 2 billion yuan, in 2005, 2006 two years of the same huge loss of 1.587 billion yuan, 1.771 billion yuan. Five years from 2010 to 2021 saw negative net profit growth. From 1994 to 27 years in 2020, BOE's total profit was 23 billion yuan, but the net profit in 2021 was more than the sum of the previous 27 years, I have to say that this performance is too explosive, but how long can such a good performance be maintained, no one can say, to be honest, it is a bit like China Shipping Remote Control, it earned 89.3 billion yuan a year, or not opened, a opening is enough to eat for many years.
03, according to the current net profit valuation of 25.8 billion is 6 times PE, if the counter-cyclical profit is greatly reduced, PE will increase significantly.
Whether BOE will always maintain such a high profit, it should be said that it is difficult to do, when the profit falls to 5 billion will be 30 times PE, and the decline to 3 billion is 50 times PE. Think of it this way, it is possible that BOE is not undervalued.