Crude oil fell 5.5 percent this week, its biggest weekly drop since last November. Crude oil prices recorded their first week of decline since the Russo-Ukrainian war, experiencing one of the most turbulent periods in history; russia's last-minute demands had forced world powers to suspend negotiations, and negotiations to restart the 2015 Iran nuclear deal were threatened with collapse, and crude oil supply concerns were heightened. And this week's weekly review I remind everyone to pay attention to the 7th turn, and then see the 10th or 11th, and the 7th turn is also as expected to become a relatively high, and then there has been a sharp decline, but this week's wave is too big, it is really difficult to control, so there is no game to no regrets. From a fundamental point of view, the reasons for the continuous decline in crude oil this week are as follows:
1. The UAE said it would call on OPEC+ members to accelerate their oil production, a dramatic reversal that could pit the UAE against other OPEC+ producers. The UAE's ambassador to the United States issued a statement on Wednesday saying, "We are in favor of increasing production and will encourage OPEC to consider increasing production."
2. Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, said on the 9th that if necessary, members of the International Energy Agency can release more crude oil reserves to reduce the upward pressure on oil prices. An energy conference was held on the same day in Paris, France, where the headquarters of the International Energy Agency is located. Birol said at the meeting that the IEA's previous announcement of the release of 60 million barrels of crude oil reserves was a "preliminary response" to the current situation. That's only 4% of our inventory.
3) The United States intends to import oil from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Iran to fill the supply gap.
As one of the world's largest producers of crude oil and natural gas, Russia's crude oil exports are being hampered by many obstacles, which further leads to concerns in the international market about the interruption of crude oil supply.
5. OPEC and U.S. shale oil have reached an "alliance" on increasing investment in the energy industry.
The above factors are the key to causing crude oil to continue to oscillate and fall, and another core point here is the détente of the war, and the détente is inevitable, and this time crude oil is the rise of the war to drive crude oil to break through 100 to about 130 US dollars, if the war is destined to end, the price must be doomed to return, I hope you understand this.
On the news side, the probability of next week's regular data API and EIA overall expectations further small profits may be larger, but the actual situation depends, because the impact of conventional data is very low at the moment. Especially now, what are the core impacts of the moment, and what will be the focus next week?
1, the development of the situation in Ukraine: and the focus here is to look at the negotiations, although the ceasefire has not yet been completed, but there is no greater upgrade, it is difficult to have a greater upgrade, Russia's attitude is very clear, that is, to recognize independence, and then do not know the Allies, this is the bottom line. For Ukraine, talk a few more times before you get off the ladder, otherwise the support rate will come down, understand, so it is inevitable to negotiate. If the negotiations are concluded or further eased, such as a ceasefire or they speak, it will definitely be a big negative for crude oil. The other way around, escalating further boosts crude oil.
2, Europe and the United States sanctions on Russia: the key here is to see that Europe and the United States can really stop the production of Russian crude oil, because Russia is the world's second largest crude oil exporter, and 30% of European natural gas to make him, crude oil demand is higher, such a situation is not broken, and the core country Germany also said, will not intervene, because compared to humanitarianism, the country's economy is more critical, understand? So I think most of this production is good, the body is very honest, as long as it is not cut off the import of all is fake, such as the United States said plus time, it is fake, because 8 months later will definitely be achieved, you will use it to say that things will be fine! See the essence.
3, the United States and Iran negotiations: the focus here is to talk about the Iranian nuclear negotiations, before saying that it will be achieved, and when the Russian situation plus inflation situation, so the probability of reaching it is very large. But the weekend is another thing, so it may be longer, and I'll talk about it later.
4, Iraq's neighbor Iran launched missiles, according to the Associated Press Baghdad news, Iraqi security officials said on the 13th that the US consulate located in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northern Iraq, was attacked by as many as 12 missiles on the same day. Iraqi and U.S. officials reportedly have different accounts of the damage caused by the attack. A U.S. official said the attack did not cause damage to any U.S. government facilities or cause casualties inside U.S. government facilities. But Iraqi officials said multiple missiles hit the consulate. So it's not easy to judge, but tomorrow will definitely trigger the high opening of crude oil, and then the key is to see if there is anything! This is the key, and the other is that the current negotiation has reached a critical time, and if it is really hit, it may change again.
In addition, this time on the reflection on crude oil: as the Ukrainian crisis continues, the market's concern about energy supply intensified, and the intraday price of Brent crude oil futures in London reached $139 per barrel on the 7th, the highest in nearly 14 years and about twice the low point of last December. French Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire warned on the 9th that the current energy situation is comparable to the oil crisis in 1973. The crisis caused stagflation that year, "which is what we want to avoid in 2022.".
The fourth Middle East war broke out in October 1973, and several OPEC members announced a ban on oil exports to countries that support Israel, such as the United States, and oil prices soared threefold, triggering recessions and severe inflation in many countries. Russia is one of the world's major oil producers and also exports large quantities of natural gas and coal. US President Joseph Biden announced on the 8th that it will impose an energy embargo on Russia, and the European Union also announced on the same day that it will seek to significantly reduce oil and gas imports from Russia.
So history is similar to the result that things must be reversed, and the same is true in 2008, the same is the war (Georgia war) + inflation, the final result is that $147 is followed by a sharp fall! Therefore, the rise can not be careless, the fall should also pay attention to the risk, more is to think for themselves!
Technically, this week's crude oil as a whole is rushing higher and falling, and last week's weekly review we focused on the 7th turn, that is, to focus on seeing the 10th or 11th, although the 8th further rushed higher, but finally it was the route of continuing to shock the killing, and then it was the 11th turning low, and then saw the 16th to 18th, and then how to go is not easy to say. And the point of the week to focus on the 103.5 and 115 range breakthrough, if the upward may further explore 120, but in the short term I think 130 here is difficult to break through upwards, so if to 120 to 130 this range short, 3 months to see 90 is possible, but must do a good job of position control stop loss, if the breakthrough should also pay attention to stop loss out, understand? More depends on the intraday strategy.
In addition, reviewing the 2008 trading chart, it can be determined that if the trend line is broken in the future, it may trigger a continuous sharp fall, and the retaliatory fall brought about by the extreme will be reversed, so in the end, even if the big rebound is only rebounded to 130, that is, the pressure after the previous big support point, and then it is all the way down, so the future can not be careless. But it is not ruled out that a new high will be made again, but how high the rise is, how deep the fall will be, understand? I hope you see the development of the review situation!