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What is the probability that an interstellar colonist has a "great-great-grandfather"?

author:Tian Tan Zhesi

"Great-grandfather" refers to the grandfather's grandfather (grandpa²), "great-great-grandfather" refers to the great-grandfather's great-grandfather (great-grandfather² = grandpa ⁴), this article is defined as such, compared with the same title in some local conventions, each may have 1 generation and 4 generations more.

There is such a law in human civilization (let's call it the "law of probability of human reproduction of unisexual continuation"): the probability of having a "great-great-grandfather" is 100%, while the probability of having a great-great-grandchild at the moment your great-great-grandfather was born is very low. The reason behind it is very simple, your "great-great-grandfather" may experience various probability events such as disease, war, natural disaster, whether or not to become a monk, and when you are in your generation, each generation has heirs, and each generation has a son, which is naturally very low.

Of course, the relationship between great-great-grandmothers and great-granddaughters also conforms to this law, but this is not the focus of this article.

The point of this article is that if this law is broken, the law becomes that the probability of someone having a great-great-grandfather is very low, while the probability of someone's great-great-grandfather (if any) having a great-great-grandchild is almost 100%. So what's going to happen?

What is the probability that an interstellar colonist has a "great-great-grandfather"?

1. Human sexual reproduction

According to Darwin's theory of evolution, the reason why human beings are currently the reproduction mode of intersex reproduction is that human beings inherit from the ancestral organisms of close relatives, for example, human beings evolved from ancient apes, because ancient apes are intersex reproduction, and human beings have correspondingly inherited the reproduction mode of ancient apes. After the evolution from the ancient ape, human beings have not undergone drastic mutant evolution in terms of gender reproduction, and they are still hermaphroditic reproduction.

Ancient apes or their earlier ancestors may have had stages of unisexual reproduction, hermaphroditic reproduction, and multi-sex reproduction before evolving the reproduction mode of hermaphroditic reproduction. The part of the population that reproduces as part of the part of the unisexual breeding loses the opportunity to fuse the mutated genes, and when there is a change in the living environment, it is eliminated because it is not adapted. Although the multi-sexual reproduction part of the population has more opportunities for mutation gene fusion, because its reproductive efficiency will be reduced, the population number is relatively easy to decrease, and the probability of malignant mutations in genes will become larger, and it will be eliminated slowly.

Only when the part of the population that reproduces between the sexes can achieve a better balance between gene fusion and reproductive efficiency, can there be a better chance to ensure that the population continues to reproduce and continue to obtain better evolution through appropriate genetic fusion.

At present, the human gender reproduction model follows the "law of probability of human reproduction of single sex continuation".

2. The reproduction needs of the alienation of the earth's civilization

After human beings entered the era of science and technology, and then entered the era of global villages, the evolutionary mechanism of survival of the fittest under pure nature has failed in the biological species of human beings. The evolutionary effect of natural evolutionary mechanisms, which is at least measured in tens of thousands of years and completed by genetic mutations, has an almost negligible effect in the face of the involution effect of human technology.

The most obvious example of this is that even a little bit of gene editing technology developed by human beings relying on their own science and technology for only a few decades cannot catch up with the effects of gene mutations and fusion effects in the state of nature for tens of millions of years.

At this time, if the reproduction mode of human intersex reproduction is impacted or changed, the reason is likely to be caused by the alienation of human civilization itself and the new reproductive needs. The most typical example of this is the reproductive needs of the LGBTQ community. At present, many same-sex marriages in Europe and the United States have already had the reproduction of same-sex partners, fortunately, the reproduction of such same-sex couples is still strictly speaking, it still belongs to both sexes, because the general female same-sex couples have to seek the sperm of a third party, and male same-sex couples also need to seek eggs from a third party, and the children born only belong to these LGBTQ families legally, and in biological terms, they still belong to children who are common with third parties.

However, since around 2016, IVG technology has emerged, which has made the possibility of same-sex couples having children wholly belong to their own families biologically close to reality. Moreover, IVG technology has made great breakthroughs in many countries such as the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Israel. Here, it is necessary to make THE IVG technology simple.

IVG technology is that scientists can transform any cell on the human body, even skin cells and blood cells that are very easy to collect, into induced pluripotent stem cells (iPS cells), and this iPS cell can be programmed to be any cell, including reproductive stem cells (ES cells), and ES cells can be further cultured into eggs or sperm, and whether it is eggs or sperm, regardless of the sex of the mother. That is to say, any cell in the man's body can eventually transform into an egg, and any cell in the woman's body can eventually transform into sperm, and vice versa is even more fine (in fact, it is more appropriate for eggs and sperm to be collectively called gametes). Then the follow-up steps are simple, according to the laws of nature, gamete fertilization, uterine implantation, embryonic development, child birth, this is the same, of course, the supporting technology also includes artificial uterus also has, after all, male and male partners have this need, but the technical difficulty is much lower than IVG.

What is the probability that an interstellar colonist has a "great-great-grandfather"?

Well, some people will say that this is not still intersex reproduction, although it is artificial with IVG technology, but in the end it also requires the combination of eggs and sperm. Yeah, it's true! But there is always someone who is narcissistic about his genes, and he wants the protocells that produce eggs and sperm to be all their own? In addition, what if IVG technology continues to develop, skip the egg/sperm generation, egg fertilization stage, and grow embryonic cells from iPS cells in one step?

The development of this kind of involution biotechnology and genetic technology of human beings is indeed very advanced without considering the impact on the entire ecosystem. In the face of these human internal volume technology, before the original ethical order of mankind is transformed into the latest and complete and controllable new ethical system recognized by the entire earth society, He Jiankui's 3-year sentence is not a loss at all, otherwise once the human genes are contaminated and then discover the problem, it will be too late.

If the IVG technology is cashed in and applied, the "law of probability of human reproduction unisexual continuation" will also be invalid, at that time, there may be children without biological fathers, and naturally there will be no great-great-grandfathers.

3. Human reproduction in the context of interstellar migration

If the reproduction needs similar to LGBTQ are only a matter of internal volume of human civilization, then the human reproduction needs in the context of human interstellar migration in the future cosmic era are really a major event related to the survival of the entire human civilization.

After human beings enter the cosmic era from the global village era, it is likely that interstellar migration will occur, the distance between the target planet of the immigrants from the earth may be tens, hundreds or even tens of thousands of light years, the human group of immigrants, whether on the way, or to the destination, its living environment can never be exactly the same as the earth environment, affected by various electromagnetic waves, temperatures, and gravitational environments from the universe are complex, and the human beings who immigrate are not prepared for a variety of reproduction methods, it is likely to die off on the way of migration.

A friend once worked in a radio-intensive environment, and several colleagues around him, both male and female, were born in those few-year cycles, all boys, and those who were transferred halfway did not have this law. Of course, strictly speaking, this phenomenon may also be a coincidence, after all, the number of people is not very large, and it does not have the characteristics of a typical sample. But this example is also enough to show that in the potentially harsh space environment, the amphibian reproduction pattern that humans have continued on Earth for tens of millions of years may fail.

As for the means and methods such as returning to the earth at any time to re-start after the spaceship returns to the earth for supplies at any time, and the means and methods of extending the human journey by relying on the "gradual awakening" of frozen people to take over the shift on the way to migration, are all palliative and non-curative ways, and only a human migration team with strong reproductive ability is the best option. Among them, the patterns of unisexual reproduction and intersex reproduction are necessary.

In the era of interstellar migration, for the entire human race, the "law of probability of human reproduction unisexual continuation" is no longer important, and the newborn baby can only be a human child.

What is the probability that an interstellar colonist has a "great-great-grandfather"?

4. Human reproduction in extreme science

On the other hand, from the perspective of risk, the development of science and technology in human reproduction, in fact, at present, the risk is quite large, why? Because the current development of science such as gene technology in human beings is still "black".

On the discussion of gene technology alone, the current development status of gene technology science is more of a progress at the experimental level, and it should be said that there is a lot of progress at the cellular level, but at the biomolecular level, especially at the theoretical level, its development is still "black".

Then, compared with different application areas, from the aspects of agricultural crops and biological materials, the current risk level should be said to be bearable for humans. But in the field of human reproduction, the risk level is quite large, and the consequences of this risk are not only reflected in the ethical destruction of human consciousness, but also the more serious consequences are the pollution or reverse misoperation of the human gene status quo that has been selected and evolved by nature for tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of years.

You know, even if a software bug appears, it will often plant a new, implicit and more deadly bug in the software system because of fixing a bug, not to mention the genetic science and the biomolecular science that is closely related to it, which is ten million times more complex than any existing software in human beings.

For example, the He Jiankui gene editing incident, its so-called purpose is to immunize against AIDS, but you do not work the HIV virus as an infringer, which is relatively simple than human genes, but change the human genes as a victim, more difficult and more complex in terms of influence, which is not only a problem of putting the cart before the horse, but a serious, bad and irresponsible academic thinking problem in the logic of scientific research goals.

In the study of human reproduction, which inevitably involves the field of genetic science, when researchers with extreme ideas deviate from the formal scientific research path without authorization, the "law of probability of human reproduction unisexual continuation" is naturally invalid.

What is the probability that an interstellar colonist has a "great-great-grandfather"?

The current "law of probability of human reproduction unisex continuation" is only established within the scope of normal human civilization, and it is placed in the context of the entire universe and placed in the context of diverse cosmic civilizations, and this law will eventually be abandoned by future human beings. The reproductive logic of other cosmic civilizations may be more complicated, and there may be no need for sexual reproduction at all, of course, it is not necessarily a single asexual reproduction, which is likely to be a way of reproduction that we humans cannot understand at all.

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