Special contributor to glacier thought bank | Zhang Tiankan
In the early morning of February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine. This war that shocked the world overlapped with the time point of the new crown epidemic, the roof leaked every night, the disaster of war and the epidemic or endangered human society in the form of multiplication, and the Russo-Ukrainian war may become a touchstone for testing the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic.
March may not be a turning point
On January 19, Murray, director of the American Institute of Health Indicators and Evaluation, published an opinion piece in the medical journal The Lancet, saying that the new crown virus may continue to exist, but the global new crown "pandemic" is coming to an end.
According to Murray's predictions, the key point in time for the end of the "pandemic" is March 2022. Because, in mid-February 2022, most countries will usher in the peak of confirmed cases of Olmiqueron, and by the end of March 2022, more than 50% of the world's people will be infected with Omiljung. Infection with Omi kerong can create protection against other variant viruses, so it can help all of humanity build an immune barrier against possible future variant viruses.
Prior to Murray's prediction, due to the easing of the epidemic, from the end of January 2022, the three Nordic countries of Norway, Denmark and Sweden took the lead in opening the "unblocking" and removing most of the epidemic prevention restrictions.
Later, some EUROPEAN countries, such as the Czech Republic, Belgium, Portugal, the Netherlands and other European countries, have also followed suit, planning to end the main epidemic prevention measures early. Now, the United Kingdom, the United States, New Zealand and Australia and other countries have also gradually relaxed their local epidemic prevention and control policies and entry control policies.
▲Site view of the 58th Munich Safety Conference (Photo/Network)
However, WORLD Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at the 58th Munich Security Conference in Germany on February 18 that some countries believe that the COVID-19 pandemic is over, that "this idea is dangerous" and that vaccination is still the best means of preventing severe illness and death in the European region.
After the emergence of refugee flows, on March 2, Tedros also said that the Russo-Ukrainian war may lead to a surge in severe cases of new coronary pneumonia.
The increase in severe illness is only one aspect of the severity of the epidemic caused by the factors of war, but the relentlessness of war will tear everything apart, including all public health measures, and war will bring favorable conditions for the spread of the new crown epidemic.
Currently, according to the UK's Our World in Data website, as of March 11, there were 455 million COVID-19 cases worldwide, with 6.04 million deaths, and 21 new cases per 100,000 people.
Of course, there are a few countries and regions that have seen a large increase in the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and some Southeast Asian countries are experiencing an increase in COVID-19 cases brought about by the Aomi Kerong variant.
▲ Ukraine epidemic statistics, recently stopped updating (source / JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data )
Moreover, the low rate of virus detection in Ukraine means that there may be a large number of undiscovered chains of transmission, and the low rate of COVID-19 vaccination may increase the risk in the local area, and there may be a large number of people infected and severely ill.
If you add war causes, the uncertainty of the new crown epidemic has increased greatly, so there is a big uncertainty about whether March can become a turning point for the epidemic.
More than 2 million refugees have contributed to the spread of the epidemic
The spread of the outbreak in the Russo-Ukrainian War has several aspects worth noting.
The UN REFUGEE agency announced on March 11 that more than 2.15 million Ukrainian refugees have fled war-torn Ukraine to seek refuge in neighbouring countries. Among them, Poland received more than half of the Ukrainian refugees, and the other refugees fled to Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia and other European countries.
According to the International Organization for Migration, a further 116,000 third-country nationals have fled Ukraine.
▲ Ukrainian refugees (Photo/AFP)
According to media reports, according to medical aid organizations at the border, the demand for professional medical personnel in the local area is still very high. At borders with such high foot traffic, few people wear masks. Because compared to fleeing the war, the new crown virus seems to be a small threat. Even if a fever patient may be a new crown, there is no way to test and confirm, nor can it be targeted.
Refugees gather, are intimate but unprotected, and check refugee vaccinations at national borders. There is no doubt that favorable conditions have been created for the spread of the epidemic.
Curry, a spokesman for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, said Ukraine had been hit by an epidemic wave brought by Omi kerong in the weeks leading up to the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Under the war, it is impossible to maintain normal epidemic prevention measures. Therefore, after the war began, Li Yiping, a Chinese student studying at the Kiev Conservatory of Music in Ukraine, and 7 other international students took refuge in the air raid shelter, which was mostly filled with local people, pregnant women, the elderly and children, and 2 Chinese students unfortunately contracted new crown pneumonia.
▲ The air raid shelter where 8 Chinese students, including Li Yiping, are located (Photo: Photo by Li Yiping)
Due to the relatively low vaccination rates in Eastern European countries, population immunity to COVID-19 has not yet been widely established, which is conducive to the spread of COVID-19. Several countries bordering Ukraine could lead to an increase in the number of infections due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees. These countries, like Ukraine, do not have high vaccination rates. Vaccination rates are less than 35 percent in Ukraine, about 59 percent in Poland and less than 42 percent in Romania.
Statistics from "Data to see the world" show that as of the morning of March 8, Ukraine has confirmed about 4.87 million people and a cumulative death toll of about 100,000 people; Poland has confirmed about 5.74 million people and 110,000 deaths; Romania has confirmed about 2.77 million people with 64,000 deaths. Data from neighboring Moldova, which borders Ukraine, are unknown.
Due to the chaos of the war, the case statistics of Countries such as Ukraine have been somewhat ignored, so the number of real infections may be higher.
Another factor is that in the process of fleeing, coupled with extremely poor sanitary conditions, it is conducive to the spread of the disease and even worsens the disease.
Warring parties could lead to an increase in outbreaks
Russia has started this war, and one of the questions that professionals have is why Russia is waging war in spite of the epidemic. The answer from reality is that Russia has no fear, two things.
First, despite the high number and incidence of COVID-19 infections in Russia, the case fatality rate after infection with COVID-19 is relatively low.
As of February 27, the number of covid-19 infections in Russia on the seventh day was 975,000, ranking second in the world. In the previous week, Russia even ranked first in the number of new infections in the world. But the case fatality rate is currently only 0.4 percent. This figure is already far below Russia's previous 4% CASE fatality rate and only four times the case fatality rate (0.1%) of influenza virus infection. Therefore, Russia does not seem to be worried about the epidemic.
Second, Russian soldiers have a high vaccination rate.
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said that as of February, 95 percent of Russian army personnel had been vaccinated and 25 percent had received a third dose. And Shoigu said that the death rate of the new crown virus among Russian military personnel is 4 to 5 times lower than that of ordinary people. Whether this data is true or not remains to be verified.
Considering that COVID-19 has led to high mortality among the elderly, and the vast majority of young people in the military, a low case fatality rate is possible.
Despite the high vaccination rate of Russian military personnel, based on the fact that any vaccine may be infected, the hidden infection of the Russian army will also be high, and if it comes into contact with local personnel, it may increase the spread of the epidemic.
▲ A Ukrainian soldier in the Sumy region (Photo/Reuters)
On the other hand, ukrainian troops and fighters fighting against the Russian army are also facing the threat of new coronavirus infection.
On February 26, General Sirsky, a commander of the Ukrainian National Guard in Kiev, said that his team had about 15,000 soldiers, of whom 2,400 were infected with the new crown virus. But wartime testing has largely stalled, and testing is only done when soldiers have symptoms. He estimated that the number of infections among soldiers was several times higher than the actual number of tests.
Although the COVID-19 vaccine for Ukrainian military personnel has reached 99.3% (two doses) and intensive vaccination (third dose) is underway, Sirski believes that the epidemic is spreading on the front line in Ukraine.
It was not only the Ukrainians, militias and civilians who fought against the Russians, but also mercenaries from all over the world.
It is reported that about 20,000 mercenaries from 52 countries have entered Ukraine one after another to block the Russian army. Combatants who enter Ukraine from all over the world are also likely to bring the outbreak into Ukraine, and it is also possible to bring the epidemic back home after the war is over.
As a result, warring parties could facilitate the spread of the outbreak and make it worse, and it would be difficult to end it in a short period of time.
How to prevent the double catastrophe of war and epidemic
The city gate caught fire, affecting the pond fish. Even if China is far away from countries such as Ukraine and Poland, it also has a large number of borders with Russia and is vulnerable to the epidemic, mainly reflected in the import of epidemics at border ports.
▲As of 15:45 on March 12, China's local epidemic statistics (excluding imported cases from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and overseas) (Photo/Tencent News)
As of 24:00 on March 11, according to reports from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, there were 5,461 confirmed cases (including 6 severe cases), 113528 confirmed covid-19 cases, 4,636 cumulative deaths, and 588 new confirmed cases, including 112 imported cases from abroad and more than ten provinces.
There are three main reasons for the recent high number of indigenous cases in Chinese mainland:
First, winter and spring are the period when respiratory infectious diseases are more active;
The second is the huge pressure of overseas imports;
The third is caused by the characteristics of the Omiljun strain itself.
Although imported cases account for only 24% of the current new cases, imported cases may increase after the Russo-Ukrainian war. Of course, the reason is not only the war, but also because China's border line is long, and there are 13 provinces with border ports, of which the pressure on the northeast, north and northwest border ports has increased.
Cities involved in border crossings in China, especially those bordering Russia, are important prevention and control points for imported epidemics from abroad. This is the case in Manzhouli, Inner Mongolia, which borders Mongolia to the west and Russia to the north, and is China's largest land port, with frequent exchanges of goods and intensive personnel exchanges, and most of the imported epidemics have occurred and led to a large number of transmissions.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian War, not only In Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, but also in Heilongjiang Suifenhe and Heihe, it was easy to become the distribution center and transmission channel of infectious diseases, and even became a fertile soil for virus mutation. Since November 2020, including Manzhouli, Suifenhe, Heihe and Ruili in Yunnan, have repeatedly encountered imports of the epidemic. Therefore, border cities will also take "external defense import" as the focus of prevention and control.
Even in situations of war, international protection against the epidemic should be provided, which is an important measure to prevent the further spread of the epidemic. Now, countries that host Ukrainian refugees, such as Poland, have said they want to provide free vaccinations for refugees, although for practical reasons, they have not yet screened or quarantined when refugees arrive.
On March 4, italy's Ministry of Health announced that it was asking all regions to allocate resources to ensure that adequate COVID-19 swab testing and vaccines were provided to Ukrainian refugees. For citizens from Ukraine, regardless of nationality, if they do not have a vaccine certificate, they must be tested by the local health department within 48 hours of entry, and COVID-19 vaccination is provided to individuals aged 5 years and above who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19 or without vaccination documents.
German Health Minister Lauterbach also said on March 7 that Germany could accept Ukrainian refugees, but many Ukrainian refugees were infected with the new crown virus, the numbers were "worrying", and their vaccination status also had a significant gap. Germany will therefore follow the Welfare of Asylum Seekers Act, so that refugees will be cared for and vaccinated in the same way as German citizens.
Since some Ukrainians are not vaccinated against COVID-19 by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), this also requires European countries to revaccinate Ukrainian refugees.
Ukrainian refugees rest at the main station of Berlin Railway Station on March 4 (Photo/EPA-EFE)
In addition, the refugee tide is not only likely to spread the new crown epidemic, but also may cause the spread of other diseases, such as the more deadly polio virus into Western Europe and other parts of the world, and China should take relevant preventive measures in a timely manner.
From a historical point of view, the First World War has left mankind with the bitter lesson of war and disease that together harm mankind.
The 1918 flu (commonly known as the Spanish flu) occurred during World War I, which lasted between January 1918 and April 1920, and although it was at the end of World War I, it also caused about 1/4 of the world's population at that time to infect 500 million people and 20 million to 50 million deaths (estimated between 17.41 million and 100 million people).
The death toll from the flu even exceeded the death toll in war, when there were 35 million soldier and civilian casualties, of which about 15 million died.
There are many reasons why the 1918 pandemic caused such a major catastrophe, including the long war, which lasted for 4 years; the number of countries and people, more than 30 countries, and 1.5 billion people involved in the war. The movement and close contact of these people has caused the worldwide spread of influenza and its great lethality.
There were three waves of influenza in 1918, the first occurred in the spring of 1918, the second wave in the autumn of the same year, and the third wave occurred in the winter of 1918 to the spring of 1919, but the second wave was the deadliest, accounting for 90% of the total deaths of the flu.
The second wave that occurred in the autumn was because the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other countries participated in the war one after another, through the movement of soldiers, logistics personnel, etc., and after the participants returned to their respective countries, the flu spread widely around the world.
From these experiences, the Russo-Ukrainian war is likely to continue and spread the new crown epidemic, and even not rule out its deterioration. However, with the experience of the past, as long as mankind is prepared, the Russo-Ukrainian war will not repeat the tragedy of the 1918 flu.
The Russo-Ukrainian war is the touchstone for testing the new crown epidemic, no matter what the outcome, as long as mankind works in a positive direction, strengthens the fight against the epidemic while opposing and stopping the war, it is possible to end the poison of these two disasters on human society at the same time.