【Article/Observer Network Columnist Chenfeng】
Whether the Ukrainian Air Force is still fighting or is actually being wiped out is a mystery. However, if the Ukrainian Air Force is to continue fighting, it is urgent to replenish fighters, which is not a mystery.
On February 27, anecdotal news spread that the United States secretly planned to "gift" the MiG-29 from Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria to Ukraine, and the United States replaced it with a second-hand F-16. On March 1, the three governments publicly denied it. On March 3 and 6, the Polish military and the Polish prime minister again denied it. But on March 6, Blinken publicly admitted in a CBS interview that he was coordinating and operating with his allies. Zelenskiy high-profile denounced the procrastination of various countries, and the Ukrainian Defense Ministry announced on February 28 that the Eastern European MiG-29 would be based in Poland, where pilots were being trained.
MiG-29 fighter of the Polish Air Force (file image)
There are 28 MiG-29s in Poland, 12 in Slovakia and 16 in Bulgaria (and 14 Su-25s are also in the replacement plan). In theory, these aircraft are a great reinforcement to Ukraine. The MiG-29 of the Three Kingdoms was an early model and was already very unpredicted. Fortunately, the Ukrainian MiG-29 is also an early model, and in theory Ukrainian pilots can directly get started.
As NATO members, the three countries continue to use these old MiG-29s for the simple reason that they don't have the money. Despite the large-scale purchases of this and that in recent years, Poland has not actually had the money to fully renew its fighter fleet. These MiG-29s in Poland were originally from the former East Germany, half sold and half given away, just like the Polish Leopard-2 tanks. Slovakia and Bulgaria are both legacy of the Cold War era.
Soviet fighter jets were not meant to be durable, unless they were particularly well maintained, barely flying after 30 years. The main force of the Polish Air Force has been replaced by the F-16, and it has long wanted to eliminate these old MiG-29s. Originally did not spend much money, not painful, heartache is the money to buy new fighter jets. Slovakia and Bulgaria are similar.
On March 8, Poland announced that it would send its MiG-29 to the United States Air Force at The Lumstën Air Base in Germany, where it would be handed over to Ukraine after being handled by the United States. Poland will further consult with the United States on accepting a replacement for the second-hand F-16. The U.S. military immediately declared it "unfeasible," and the U.S. State Department expressed "surprise," saying that Poland had decided without consulting the United States.
All of this is true, but it doesn't go to the point. The key is that Poland subverted the U.S. abacus: let Poland play a forward, offend Russia, and the United States continues to arch the fire. It seems that the dog underestimated the intelligence of the tail.
Technically, the operational status of the Polish (but also Slovak, Bulgarian) MiG-29 is questionable. Less than half of Bulgaria's MiG-29s and Su-25s are in seaworthiness, and the rest are used to disassemble spare parts. The Slovak MiG-29 is only 6 flying. The Polish MiG-29 is in pretty good shape, having just been upgraded in 2013-14, with an extended airframe life of 40 years and 4,000 hours, and equipment updates including the latest FRIEND or Foe identification system of NATO standards. Spare parts are also enough for 3-4 years, so the airworthiness rate is much higher.
For the MiG-29 to be delivered to Ukraine, it first needs to be repaired to airworthiness, or only the flyable parts will be delivered, and the other aircraft will be "later". The spare parts of the MiG-29 are only from Russia, and in the current situation, it can be figured out with the toes that "later" is that there is no future.
Another problem: all three MiG-29s have been upgraded by NATO. As a member of NATO, at a minimum, after the fighter jets of various countries take off, they can identify friends and enemies with each other. These enemy and friend identification equipment is highly confidential, and falling into the hands of hostile countries will affect the operational security of the entire battlefield. But once the MiG-29 arrived in Ukraine, it is difficult to say when it was defeated or even captured by the Russian army. If these friend or foe identification equipment fell into the hands of the Russian army, it would not only be Poland, Bulgaria and Slovakia that would be damaged, but the entire NATO. Upgraded equipment for the Polish MiG-29 also needs to be dismantled to avoid leaks.
The problem is that after these equipment is dismantled, it still has to be replaced with the original equipment to maintain the applicability of the aircraft, but where does the original equipment come from? Same problem as the above spare parts. When upgrading, it is not simple plug and play, it is all partially modified. The same goes for restitution, which is not plug-and-play. It all takes time, but what Ukraine lacks most is time.
After the planes were delivered to Ramstein, these were not the problems of Poland (and Slovakia and Bulgaria). It is difficult for the Air Force to say whether there are enough technicians to immediately begin the repair of these MiG-29s. This is not a problem, and it is estimated that the three congresses are willing to send people to help. The planes are given away for free, what is the point of sending a few people to help? Bringing your own existing spare parts is a one-sentence sentence.
Poland has repeatedly stressed that it will not send fighter jets to Ukraine
Another problem is the pilot. Ukraine has some pilots who can fly MiG-29s, but no one can say how many there are and whether they have the ability to take over these MiG-29s. Temporary training is certainly too late, and "foreign volunteer pilots" are possible, but these are basically active fighter pilots from various countries (especially Poland, Slovakia, bulgaria, which are still operating MiG-29s). Slowly say whether I am willing or not, and countries may not be willing to release people. Unless the three countries are determined to enter the war, the number of experienced pilots who leave their posts and go to Ukraine to fight will be sporadic at best, and the number may not be sufficient. These people are also trained differently from Ukraine, and whether they can communicate smoothly with the command system of the Ukrainian Air Force is a question.
The other side of the personnel problem is ground handling. Fighter jets require a large number of ground crews to serve, and Ukraine may not have enough manpower to serve these new fighters. The dispatch of "volunteers" by States involves a larger number of people and the problem is more complex. Spare parts are another issue and must be constantly supplied, otherwise these MiG-29s will be almost disposable. Poland has "donated" 100 R-73 short-range air-to-air missiles to Ukraine. The planes are "gifted", and the follow-up ammunition is not a problem, and it is useless to keep it.
The delivery of these MiG-29s is a well-known problem. No matter who is flying, even if these aircraft are coated with Ukrainian livery, they have completed the "head of household registration" in the international aircraft registration system, and after taking off from any NATO country, they fly directly into Ukrainian airspace, and it is difficult not to be directly involved as NATO.COM. After all, these are combat aircraft, and even for self-defense, there is a high probability that they will carry air-to-air missiles (such as the R-73) during the voyage. NATO cannot take this risk, and Stoltenberg has long announced that the MiG of the three countries cannot travel to Ukraine via NATO airspace.
NATO has repeatedly declared that NATO has no intention of military involvement and that NATO's top priority is to ensure that the conflict in Ukraine does not spill over beyond Ukraine's borders. Poland has also demanded that NATO supply Ukraine with any offensive weapons must be a collective unanimous decision. The aid of assault rifles, anti-tank missiles, and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles can also sneak "drop and run", and such an obvious offensive weapon as a fighter cannot be equipped with this confusion. Poland must pull nato up and "don't blame me for kicking nato off without permission."
Leaving aside the NATO ban, Poland did not want these MiGs to take off from Poland into Ukraine, but instead sent the aircraft to Ramstein, effectively cutting off any possibility of air delivery. Even if the United States were willing to take over, these MiG-29s would not have been able to fly from Germany to Ukraine without passing through Polish airspace. Slovakia, Hungary and Romania will also refuse, and neutral Moldova will refuse.
It is impossible to enter from the direction of Odessa on the Black Sea. Not to mention that it is impossible to take off from Romania or enter the Black Sea by road under the eyes of Crimea, and if Romania does not refuse to cross the border and has a large land border with Western Ukraine, there is no need to detour through the Black Sea. It is also virtually impossible for Turkey to agree to the borrowing. The Black Sea route is actually a dead end.
Dismantled and transported from land, not to mention time-consuming and troublesome, convoys or trains could easily be discovered by the Russians and bombed. If the air infiltration will also be intercepted, at least there is a possibility of ultra-low altitude night penetration, and it is difficult for the huge inbound convoy on the ground to avoid the eyes and ears of the Russian army.
Even if these MiG-29s can reach Ukraine smoothly, it is difficult to say how much viability they have. The intensity of the Russian air strikes was lower than expected, and the Ukrainian combat aircraft still took off sporadically, but it was impossible to support and dispatch 56 MiG-29s to hide in Tibet, and basically there was no possibility of not being preemptively destroyed by the Russian army.
Even if all these problems are solved, these MiG-29s are to play a role, not only for pilots and fighters, but also for the Ukrainian Air Force to operate an effective air defense intelligence and command and communication system. In the Ukrainian war, the West urgently assisted a large number of assault rifles, anti-tank missiles, and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, which played a certain role in blocking the advance of the Russian army. Everyone has one hand, and if you can't kill the enemy, you must scare the enemy.
But fighters are different, if there is no system support, the fighters of the scattered guerrilla combat will only be hunted turkeys, and the former Yugoslavia and Iraq have repeatedly proved it. The Russian army has pulled across again, the Ukrainian Air Force as a system no longer exists, and no effective air campaign has been organized so far.
NATO cannot command from outside the country. It is possible to quietly "smuggle" the sporadic starry sky, and remotely controlled air campaigns are not only technically impossible, but also politically too easy to step on the red line.
Another big question is: Where did the replacement F-16 come from? The obvious answer is that the United States, the U.S. Air Force, is also constantly retiring the old F-16 and replacing it with the new F-35 (though not one-on-one). Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria are also demanding a second-hand F-16, not a new F-16.
The problem is that the U.S. Air Force has certain rules for fleet management of the F-16. Those who want to retire are all expired and have no life extension value. These aircraft are no problem to use as spare parts, and the parts that can be used are removed, but as active fighters handed over to the Allies, a lot of upgrades and life extensions need to be done. This is not only a question of "conscience", but also a question of credibility among allies. NATO and Russia really need the loyalty of these allies to fight. Germany can deliver the "oil-paper package" that cannot be beaten to Ukraine, and the United States cannot treat NATO's front-line allies in this way.
If the F-16 is handed over with sufficient service life, it will leave a big hole in the existing fleet. Originally planned to retire due or expire, coupled with these still in use F-16, the new F-35 will definitely not fill the vacancy.
Now, back in great power competition, the U.S. Air Force is under greater pressure than at any time after the end of the Cold War. At a time when the Russian threat surges, the U.S. Army can shrink back to Europe, the U.S. Navy can maneuver to avoid China's sharp edge in the Asia-Pacific region, and the U.S. Air Force must control the Eurasian sky at the same time.
The war in Ukraine showed signs of expanding from a quick war to a protracted war of attrition, and the 56 MiG-29s were simply not enough to see, and the big tiger of the war would swallow it in one bite. But with these 56 MiG-29s, Ukraine is bound to make further demands, which the United States simply cannot meet.
Funding is another issue. U.S. active combat aircraft are the property of the U.S. government and cannot be classified as foreign ownership without congressional approval. The air force's proprietary classified equipment on these fighters also needs to be dismantled and replaced with NATO standard equipment before they can be handed over to allies. There are also necessary repairs, upgrades and life extensions before the handover. All of this requires money, and there is no such expenditure in the existing military expenditure, unless specially allocated by Congress or the president, which cannot be carried out at all. Israel is a special of special, and only Israel among its allies enjoys the almost unconditional support of the US government and opposition, whether it is a first cut and then a second move or an interim resolution. But Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria are far from such treatment.
After Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria "gifted" their miG-29s, they needed to be filled immediately by the second-hand F-16s of the United States, so as not to leave air holes, especially when the situation is dangerous. The ideal abacus of the three countries is that the second-hand F-16 of the United States is also "gifted", but the United States may not be willing. It's hard to say how much time it will take.
It will take time for the three countries' pilot and support systems to keep up, but the air defense loopholes must be filled immediately, which can be filled by the TEMPORARY deployment of the U.S. Air Force through nato structures. However, the F-16 is an offensive weapon, and the large number of deployments on the front line of Eastern Europe is bound to greatly increase the confrontation with Russia, contrary to Biden's basic principle of "avoiding conflict with Russia".
These technical reasons are actually very obvious, no wonder the US military vetoed, this thing is not tenable at all.
Polish Air Force MiG-29 (left), Polish Air Force F-16 (center) and U.S. F-22 fighters Image from Bloomberg
The militarization of U.S. diplomacy has a long history, but it has taken a few turns, especially in recent years, when the military-born secretary of defense (Mattis of the Trump era and now Austin) has kept a lower profile in foreign and security affairs than the civilian-born secretary of defense, and whoever is more high-profile as the national security adviser and secretary of state depends on the time and place. On the Issue of Ukraine, it seems that the State Department is in charge, Blinken and Newland jump up and down, perhaps this "fighter replacement" is what they made, and did not consult the military. The military does not support this bad idea at all. On March 9, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin formally informed Polish Defense Minister Blasczak by phone that the United States "does not support the transfer of fighter jets to Ukraine now and therefore has no intention of accepting them [in Ramstein]." ”
Literati are prone to the problem of "liberal arts students thinking" when plotting wars. The use of the phrase "liberal arts students thinking" here does not mean to look down on liberal arts students, but just wants to say: liberal arts students and science students may take it for granted, only care about self-consistency, and ignore the contrast with reality. The difference is that science students have nature and engineering technology actually there, and they can't avoid reality if they want to avoid reality, and they can only honestly admit their mistakes after being punched in the face, and no longer drill a dead end. Liberal arts students are different, in many cases either there is no reality to test, such as unprecedented social experiments can only be done once to confirm falsification, speculation alone is not enough; or it takes a long time to test, infrastructure revitalization, living within the means of sustainable development is such an example.
On the issue of the war in Ukraine, the no-fly zone and the MiG-29 are problems that are biased by liberal arts students.
Unless NATO declares war on Russia, the no-fly zone cannot be enforced at all. Ukraine is like a large pocket long from east to west and short from north to south, surrounded by Belarus and Russia clockwise from 10 o'clock to 6 o'clock, neutral Moldova from 7 o'clock to 8 o'clock, only the land border with Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland at 8 o'clock to 10 o'clock, and the Black Sea coast between 6 o'clock and 7 o'clock.
NATO's black hand into this big pocket of Ukraine must be extended very long, and it is impossible not to be cut off by Russia. To guarantee the most basic operational security, it is necessary to control Crimea and Belarus, as well as long-range anti-aircraft missile (such as S400) bases on the Russian side of the Russian-Ukrainian border. But now that Putin has pressed the nuclear button with one hand, NATO is not suicidal.
The no-fly zone is not only forbidden to fly the combat aircraft of the other side, but also to suppress the air defense forces in the war zone at any time, but also to crack down on "illegal ground operations." For example, during the operations in the no-fly zone in Iraq, the Iraqi army's attack on the Kurdish armed forces was bombed; during the operation in the former Yugoslav no-fly zone, the Serbian army's attack on the Kosovo armed forces was also bombed. In Ukraine, the Russian army has launched a large-scale operation, and the large-scale bombing of the Russian army will inevitably increase Putin's impulse to press the nuclear button.
Russian air operations, even after the recent increase, are still not intense. The Russian army is still continental,000, and air strikes are only auxiliary means, not the main means. In fact, the lack of russian air force operations is one of the main bases for questioning the degree of modernization of the Russian military. A no-fly will not stop the war in Ukraine. Stopping Russian ground operations is also the main reason why Zelenskiy demanded that NATO immediately begin operations in no-fly zones. What Zelenskiy needs is NATO to help Ukraine repel Russian troops, and it is not enough to stop Russian aircraft.
This is also the blind spot of the "MiG-29 aid to Ukraine". The Ukrainian army is more continental than the Russian army, although the Ukrainian army is no longer so large. The Eastern European MiG-29, even if it could help Ukraine regain the skies to some extent, could not essentially change the Ukrainian battlefield. The MiG-29 is an anti-aircraft fighter with limited ground attack capabilities. Theoretically, after the MiG-29 controls the sky, the Ukrainian Su-25 can play a role in ground attacks, but in fact it will encounter the same problem as the current Russian Su-25: it will be shot down by a large number of anti-aircraft fire. The Russian military does not only have shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles and sporadic mobile anti-aircraft missiles.
Ukraine needs NATO-sized anti-aircraft suppression (SEAD) fire to clear the Russian anti-aircraft fire before it can talk about air fire support. This is a call for the entire nato air force to be moved to Ukraine, which is simply not possible.
In fact, it is better to replace the Eastern European MiG-29 with Ukraine than to "gift" the Polish, Bulgarian, and Slovak T-72 tanks to Ukraine. Poland currently has 721 different upgrades of the T-72M1, Bulgaria has 80 active and 350 reserves, Slovakia has only a symbolic 22, but the Czech Republic has 659 and Hungary has 195. This is a considerable number, easy to get started, can quickly form combat effectiveness, substantially affect the Russian army's ground operations, but the offensive is actually stronger than the MiG-29. I don't see anyone who wants to make this time. There was also no option to fill the gap with American and German second-hand tanks, the United States did not have excess M1A2, and Germany's "surplus material" Leopard-2 had been exhausted in the early post-Cold War period, mainly Poland and Turkey.
The arch fire of the United States greatly stimulated Zelenskiy's actor impulses. Churchill said in his famous speech after the defeat of Dunkirk: "Whether by the sea, on land, in the wilderness, in the streets, even in the mountains, we must fight the enemy to the end and never surrender!" Zelenskiy's analogy with Churchill in his speech to the British Parliament, coupled with forests and piles of rubble, was sensational. But Zelenskiy's call for a no-fly zone has also put a lot of moral pressure on NATO, especially in Poland, which has been so high before.
Poland was willing to be arched, keen to bite a piece of meat from Russia, but did not want the old bear to slap it. Even with NATO at the bottom, Poland would be destroyed. Poland, which has no suicidal tendencies, pushes the conundrum back to the United States: "You please first".
The U.S. claimed that Poland's decision to hand over the MiG-29 to Ramstein was "puzzling." Poland did not find it inexplicable, no one felt puzzling, only the United States found it puzzling: why did Poland not "bravely shoulder the burden and take the fist with its chest" according to the American script?
This article is the exclusive manuscript of the observer network, the content of the article is purely the author's personal views, does not represent the platform views, unauthorized, may not be reproduced, otherwise will be investigated for legal responsibility. Pay attention to the observer network WeChat guanchacn, read interesting articles every day.