After the market completed the technical repair of the 5-day line on Thursday, A shares quickly turned down on Friday morning, and the maximum intraday decline was once more than 2%, but in the afternoon it quickly reversed and turned red! What happened that caused A shares to show such a stunning reversal on Friday? As a senior financial media editor-in-chief, Jingyang needs to combine some major events that have just happened to tell everyone the truth!
From the news side, the main reason for the market's sharp decline again this morning is the outer market, after the failure of the third round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine yesterday, several major stock indexes in Europe showed a significant correction, and Germany and France fell nearly 3%, handing over half of the results of the rally on Wednesday. However, the US stock market did not have a significant correction last night, only a weak shock.
It is not difficult to find that in recent days, the nerves of the global capital market have been very tight, and they are extremely sensitive to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. For our A-share market, when everyone pays too much attention to the performance of the outer market, it is natural to ignore the warmth continuously released on the domestic news, and naturally do not know why the market will reverse in the afternoon!
In yesterday afternoon's article, Jingyang mentioned that on the evening of the 9th, nearly 20 high-performing companies intensively disclosed monthly operating data. Judging from the distribution of disclosed companies, all of them are leading companies in various industries, and the operating data in January and February this year is growing positively. Since no company has disclosed monthly operating data before, this is the first time in history! Coupled with the fact that these companies choose to release relevant data centrally when the market falls sharply, so many coincidences are put together, so Jingyang believes that this is an act secretly instructed by the regulator.
It is worth noting that last night, many companies joined in to disclose monthly data, coupled with the increase in holdings and buybacks of other companies, there was a scene of favorable announcements flying all over the sky!
Here we only talk about business data, on the evening of March 10, there are 22 companies in Shanghai alone that have released performance express reports or annual reports, 35 companies have released monthly operating data, and some companies have even directly released this year's first quarter performance express! These companies cover the financial industry, manufacturing, food industry, electronic chip industry, new energy and medicine and other fields.
In the chip industry, taking Montage Technology, the leader of memory interface chips, as an example, Montage's operating income in the first two months of this year was 620 million yuan, an increase of 211% year-on-year, and the net profit was 220 million yuan, an increase of 157% year-on-year. The company said that this is due to the continuous shipment of new products such as the first sub-generation memory interface chip and memory module supporting chips of its DDR5, and the company has made a good start in 2022. In addition, the domestic semiconductor comprehensive equipment leader North Huachuang achieved operating income of 1.366 billion yuan, an increase of about 135% year-on-year, and new orders exceeded 3 billion yuan, an increase of more than 60% year-on-year.
In the new energy industry, taking Zhongtian Technology, Shanshan Shares and Tongwei Shares as examples, Zhongtian Technology's total operating income from January to February was 6 billion yuan, an increase of 17% year-on-year; net profit was 800 million yuan, an increase of 300% year-on-year. The company said that this is due to the rapid development of offshore wind power and new energy in the context of carbon neutrality, and the company's operating quality has improved significantly. Shanshan Co., Ltd.'s total operating income from January to February increased by about 44% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 313%. As the world's leading high-purity crystalline silicon company and the world's leading crystalline silicon battery company, Tongwei co., Ltd.'s net profit in January and February reached about 3.3 billion yuan, an increase of about 650% year-on-year, which is the most eye-catching performance of these companies!
In the pharmaceutical industry, Jointown's net profit in January and February increased by more than 15% year-on-year, and it is expected that the net profit from January to March 2022 will be 471 million yuan to 496 million yuan, an increase of 12% to 18% year-on-year. Meinian Health's operating income in January and February increased by 17% year-on-year, of which the number of people inspected increased by 5% year-on-year, and the unit price of customers increased by 12% year-on-year. In addition, Katazai, WuXi AppTec and Bloomage Bio also disclosed relevant data.
In the food and beverage industry, Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu first released monthly operating data, after which the dairy leader Yili shares also said that the company achieved a total profit of about 3.3 billion yuan, an increase of more than 20% year-on-year.
In the financial industry, the four major behaviors were the first to release the positive results achieved in 2021 and the operating data for January and February. In 2021, the four state-owned banks will continue to increase their support for the real economy, and have achieved positive results in supporting inclusive small and micro enterprises and green finance. Talking about the operating data of the first two months of this year, the banks also released positive signals, indicating that the main operating indicators were stable and improving, and achieved a good start.
From the perspective of the disk, when such positive announcements are released, the market generally responds positively. For example, of the 22 companies that announced their monthly operating data on the evening of March 9, 3 companies closed with a limit on March 10, namely Tianci Materials, Yangnong Chemical, and Xingyu Shares. Midland New Materials opened with a 20% limit and finally closed with an increase of 11.2%. In addition to the above companies, eight companies rose more than 5% on March 10. And this afternoon, the market showed a rapid reversal, which is also closely related to the change in the financial sector, in which the brokerage sector suddenly pulled up the overall protection plate, and the banking sector also rose in a large area!
The question now is, has the market rebounded for two consecutive days, has it stabilized?
In Jingyang's view, the main goal of yesterday's and today's market rally is to technically repair the oversold pattern formed by the 5-day line. Careful investors can also find that the high points of yesterday and today's market are actually accurately stopped near the 5-day line, which shows that the multi-party main force has no intention of rapidly expanding the results. And if the market wants to be completely stable in the short term, the key lies in where are the new lows that appear after the rebound is under pressure?
Although the short-term market has not yet fully stabilized, Jingyang also wants to remind everyone that there is not much room for the mid-term killing of the large-cap index, because the valuation level of the A-share market is already at a historic low! Among them, the average valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shanghai 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index is lower than the level of 1664 points in 2008; the CSI 500 Index is basically the same as the 1664 points in 2008. The ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index are both forecasting P/E ratios of about 30 times this year, of which the ChiNext Index predicts a P/E ratio of about 31 times, approaching the 2440-point period level of the Shanghai Composite Index in 2019. Overall, the price-to-earnings ratio of most of the indexes in the market is below 50% of the quantile of the past 20 years!
Finally, Jingyang sent a list of recently disclosed monthly operating data and buyback companies to everyone: