Text | Hua Shang Tao Li Wu Su
China's nickel industry leader Qingshan Holdings was hunted by foreign capital on the London Metal Exchange, with a floating loss of 8 billion US dollars (about 50.5 billion yuan), and the partner Huayou Cobalt Industry also ate two drop stops, according to media reports, these two drop stops, so that Huayou Cobalt Industry fell by 19%, and the total market value evaporated by about 25.4 billion yuan!
You think that the collapse of Qingshan Holdings and the big loss of Huayou Cobalt Industry are the end, then underestimate the energy of Chinese enterprises now.
Yesterday, March 9, Tsingshan Holdings responded domineeringly that it will replace the domestic metal nickel plate with its high ice nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot through various channels for delivery.
When the news came out, the analyst agencies generally believed that Qingshan could adjust the spot delivery, which means that the long-short power of the nickel futures market in London has reversed, and the foreign capital of maliciously forcing air companies may face the embarrassing situation of "lifting a stone and dropping it on their own feet".
In other words, foreign investors who hunt Chinese enterprises may be "counter-killed" by Chinese enterprises.
This positive news also helped Huayou Cobalt quickly "return to blood". Today, Huayou Cobalt's stock price rebounded, closing with an increase of 7.11%, "returning blood" nearly 10 billion yuan.
Tsingshan Holdings can have the confidence of "reversing the situation", and analysts believe that it is related to Tsingshan Holdings' ownership of Indonesian nickel mines. In fact, in this air-forced war, the foreign opponent Glencore, whose annual income of 1.36 trillion yuan was determined by market news, wanted to hunt Down Qingshan, not only to dig for gold from the futures market, but also to point to Qingshan's 60% equity in the Indonesian nickel mine.
Nowadays, the nickel industry is developing rapidly, whether it is the production of stainless steel or the production of popular lithium batteries, nickel is crucial, which also prompts global commodity trading giants such as Glencore to compete for nickel resources.
Unlike Glencore, who is good at using capital leverage to initiate acquisitions, Xiang Guangda, the head of Qingshan Holdings, took advantage of the key node of the financial crisis to end the days when he was stuck in the throat by the "nickel hegemony" of foreign mines.
To put it simply, for a long time, more than 80% of China's nickel dependence on imports, and the international giant companies that produce nickel metal often raise prices and desperately squeeze Chinese enterprises.
To what extent?
Xiang Guangda revealed that when the chinese enterprises took out domestic food for 500,000 yuan / ton, their cost was only 15,000 yuan. Compared with the two, the explosive income is more than 30 times, and even the "printing machine" is ashamed of itself, while the profit of the domestic steel industry is compressed to less than 4%, which is equivalent to Chinese enterprises can only do hard work abroad.
However, opportunity is kind to those who are ready. From 2008 to 2009, Xiang Guangda took advantage of the financial crisis to slow down multinational mining enterprises and quietly killed Indonesia, the world's largest nickel exporter, and seized 47,000 hectares of laterite nickel mining rights and entered the upstream nickel production industry.
After that, Xiang Guangda continued to use the "banknote capacity" to buy minerals in Indonesia, India, Zimbabwe and other countries with a planned investment of no less than 40 billion US dollars, and indonesia's Qingshan Industrial Park alone has a production capacity of 2 million tons of nickel iron, close to half of China's annual nickel iron production.
Because of the mastery of nickel ore resources, Tsingshan Holdings developed rapidly until it became the world's nickel king. More importantly, with a strong industry position, in the global nickel futures market, Aoyama can affect the market price to a considerable extent, and China's nickel industry has thus got rid of passive international nickel price fluctuations and has cost autonomy.
From this point of view, Qingshan is no longer just a Zhejiang enterprise, but has helped China obtain key card slots in the stainless steel and new energy industries.
It is worth noting that this is not a strategic interpretation, but a real resource support.
According to Essence Securities, Tsingshan has more than 12 million tons of nickel metal reserves in Indonesia, while China's annual demand for nickel metal is about 1 million tons. This means that Aoyama's nickel in Indonesia alone can meet The needs of China for 10 years.
Because of this, Glencore hunted Qingshan, affecting not only a Zhejiang company, but the entire Chinese nickel industry and its related stainless steel and new energy industries.
On the other hand, the situation in Qingshan is critical, and the state is likely to intervene. On March 8, Xiang Guangda responded to the media: "Foreigners do have some actions and are actively coordinating. Today I received a lot of phone calls, and the relevant state departments and leaders were very supportive of Aoyama. ”
As a result, in just a day or two, Aoyama announced that it had mobilized sufficient stock.
In the market rumors, Qingshan smashed 200,000 tons of nickel short orders, if true, this means that Qingshan wants to mobilize 200,000 tons of spot delivery. Such a huge order of magnitude, a day or two to declare "in place", a number of industry insiders to the media directly called "unbelievable". The media also found that the annual output of domestic electrolytic nickel is about 160,000 tons, which is indeed "not a small gap" with the 200,000 tons of Qingshan's position.
However, these analyses ignore the key message that Xiang Guangda said is state support. As a number of industry insiders directly called "unbelievable" news, on an investment platform, one of the netizens with the highest number of likes left a message: "Even the National Reserve does not know ..."
Think about it, with the support of the state, the foreign capital that was originally flying was killed by Chinese enterprises, and China's nickel industry and stainless steel and new energy industries will be another level, which will be a major benefit to the country and Chinese enterprises, right?
Resources:
1. "The king of the world who quietly became the king of the two major industries, he may be the biggest boss who is deepest hidden in China", Chinese businessman Tao Strategy
2. "Aoyama Goes to sea: how the nickel king is made", Tokawa went to sea to study
3. "Qingshan made up 200,000 tons of electrolytic nickel in a day?" The industry calls it "unbelievable", a fortune
4. "Glencore in the Bottom Vortex: 40 Years of Evolution into a Global Giant This time the forced empty Aoyama will "drop his own feet"? Upstream News
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