After the Cold War, there are many examples of great powers personally defeating opponents mainly by air force. For example, in the Gulf War, the FryingIst War, and the Afghan War, the United States let the Air Force play the main role, and in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia War, the United States won the war by relying only on the Air Force.
Compared with the United States, the most remarkable achievement of the Russian Air and Space Force is the Syrian war. On September 30, 2015, Russia announced its invasion of Syria. At that time, the Syrian government controlled only 22% of the country, and it was also retreating under the attack of the rebel forces, and the army suffered heavy losses and morale was broken.
With the strong air support of the Russian military in Syria, the Syrian government forces quickly overturned, and by the beginning of 2020, the large-scale fighting in Syria has basically stopped, and the Syrian government controls most of the area.
The main force of the Russian army fighting in Syria is the Air and Space Force, which has maintained 40 to 80 fighters. According to data released by the Russian Ministry of Defense, in the nearly three years from September 30, 2015 to August 2018, the Russian Air Force took off 39,000 combat flights in Syria, with an average daily dispatch of about 40 sorties. In November 2015, when the fighting was fierce, the aircraft formation set a record, with 134 sorties a day.
Russian Air Force bombs rebels in Syria
The performance of the Russian Aerospace Force in Syria has become an example of the efficient use of combat aircraft and fleets. Syria has also become a training ground for Russia to debug military combat techniques and train officers and soldiers. 63,000 servicemen have been baptized by the flames of war in Syria, including 25,000 officers and more than 400 generals. 231 promising modern weapons were tested under real combat conditions, including sea- and air-based cruise missiles, high-precision weapons, aircraft and helicopters, air defense and electronic warfare equipment.
But in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Performance of the Russian Air Force was lower than expected.
First of all, in the early stage of the war, the Russian Air and Space Force did not have much performance, the first wave of attacks was mainly completed by missiles, the first few days, the Russian Air and Space Force activities were also very small, whether it was to attack the opponent's air defense systems, or to support ground operations, the intensity was not large. In addition, analysts originally expected that the Russian military would strive to destroy Ukraine's air force and air defense system in the shortest possible time, and Russia has repeatedly claimed to have air supremacy over Ukraine, but there are still reports from time to time that the Ukrainian air force has moved. Some Western media also broke the news that within ten days of the exchange of fire between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian Air force had shot down a number of fighters of various types, including the Su-34 and other relatively advanced fighters, and many pilots were killed or killed and captured.
According to data provided by Jane's Strategic Intelligence Research Institute in the United Kingdom, the Russian Air and Space Force has 132 bombers, 832 fighters and 358 transport aircraft, compared with 0, 86 and 63 on the Ukrainian side.
Why is it that the Russian Air Force, which has absolute numerical superiority and has made great achievements on the battlefield in Syria, has not been able to repeat history in Ukraine?
First of all, the air defense capabilities of the opponents are different.
In Syria, the Russians are armed with extremist forces of all stripes and lack anti-aircraft weapons. Only a small number of obsolete MANPADS and a few anti-aircraft guns can pose a threat to low-altitude fighters. Therefore, the Russian Air force in Syria combat, generally in the form of bombers in the high-altitude, hollow bombing mode, the extremist armed hands of air defense weapons are difficult to pose a threat to Russian aircraft, the Russian army can be said to be in the "dimensionality reduction strike."
Ukraine is a country with a complete air defense system, although under the blows of the Russian army, the air defense network has been fragmented, but still has a certain strength. This can be seen from the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov announcing the results of the past day's battle of the Air Force on March 8.
Konashenkov said that "Russian Air Force fighters shot down two MiG-29s and one Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force in the air. Ukraine's 2 S-300 anti-aircraft missile battalions, 3 'Beech M1' self-propelled launchers, 4 consoles, 2 radar stations, 9 ammunition depots, 11 weapons and military equipment concentration areas were destroyed", please note that the results of the No. 7 battle included the shooting down of 3 Ukrainian fighters, which also showed that more than ten days after the start of the war, the Ukrainian Air Force can still take off, and the Russian army has not been able to suppress the other aircraft on the ground. Moreover, it can be seen from "2 S-300 anti-aircraft missile battalions, 3 'Beech M1' self-propelled launchers, 4 consoles, and 2 radar stations" that ukraine's air defense forces have not been completely destroyed or suppressed.
Beech M1 anti-aircraft missile
In addition, the Ukrainian army can also receive a steady stream of air intelligence support from the West and a large number of advanced man-portable air defense missiles. Among the weapons provided by NATO to Ukraine, anti-aircraft missiles and anti-tank missiles are the focus, including "needle" anti-aircraft missiles and "Stinger" anti-aircraft missiles. As a result, Russian fighters still face the threat of the remaining field air defense forces of the Ukrainian army at high altitudes, and once they enter the low and medium altitudes, they will face the threat of man-portable air defense missiles. The West fanning the flames and providing weapons is an important reason why the situation in Ukraine has come to this point.
The US-made "Stinger" anti-aircraft missile
Secondly, the Russian military has some scruples and is not enough precision-guided weapons.
In the Syrian war, although the Russian army also used certain precision guided weapons, it mainly used unguided bombs. And in Syria, the Russian army has no scruples, often using unguided bombs to bomb large-scale bombs to open the way, and then let the Syrian army go in for a short encounter, in which case the accuracy of the weapon is not very important.
In Ukraine, a very important point of the Russian military is to win the hearts and minds of the local people, and it is naturally not easy to use carpet bombing, which can easily lead to a humanitarian crisis. In addition, the Ukrainian army hid a large amount of equipment in residential areas. In order to minimize the harm of civilians, either a large number of precision-guided weapons are used at high altitudes, or only by relying on low-altitude penetration by fighters can accuracy be guaranteed.
The Russian Air Force thus fell into a difficult choice. Precision-guided weapons are easy to use, but the manufacturing cost is very high, the Russian military expenditure is limited, can not be used in large quantities; fighter low-altitude penetration can ensure combat accuracy, but it is easy to be ambushed and shot down by portable air defense missiles, in fact, the Russian Su-34, Su-30 and many other advanced fighters were shot down when carrying non-guided bombs at low altitude; and like Syria, let the fighters drop ordinary bombs at high altitudes, safety is relatively safe, but the first strike effect cannot be guaranteed, and it is easy to accidentally injure civilians.
Russian Su-34
Third, Russia's war laws are old, and the use of the Tchathana integrated UAV is insufficient.
So is there a solution to the dilemma of the Russian Air force? Many military experts have suggested that the Tsatta integrated UAV should be used on a large scale. In the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan's drones played an "amazing" role and became a key force in determining the outcome of the war. In terms of confirmed results alone, Azerbaijani UAVs destroyed more than 100 T-72B main battle tanks, more than 100 BMP-1/2 infantry fighting vehicles, as well as heavy equipment such as howitzers and rocket launchers. In this conflict, the Azerbaijani army put three kinds of drones into the battlefield: the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB-2 unmanned attack aircraft, and the Israeli-made Harpo and An-2 modified drones. It is worth mentioning that Ukraine later imported Turkish TB-2 drones and achieved certain results in the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Turkish-made Bayraktar TB-2 unmanned attack aircraft
In contrast, the development of the Russian military's Tada integrated UAV is relatively late, such as the Russian military's famous "Orion" Tsatta integrated UAV, which began to be developed in 2011, manufactured the first prototype in 2015, and began to fly for the first time in 2016, until 2020, the Russian army only took over the first set of 3 "Orion" UAVs. In this way, the number of "Orion" ortha-integrated UAVs actually equipped in the Russian military is not large, and it is difficult to invest in a large number of Ukrainian battlefields.
If the Russian military has a considerable number of UAVs, and these UAVs are equipped with small precision guided weapons, then it can accurately strike the technical equipment of the Ukrainian army located in residential areas. Moreover, the cost of small ammunition is relatively low, and the Russian army can bear it, which can greatly accelerate the combat process of the Russian army. After all, low-altitude front-line support is such a high-risk task, which can be completed with drones worth tens of thousands of dollars and hundreds of thousands of dollars, and can also avoid pilots and excessive civilian casualties. Nowadays, the Russian military uses tens of millions of dollars worth of fighters to execute, in case of shooting down, it will also lose valuable pilots, which is too low cost-effective.
The Russian military "Orion" cha-tap integrated UAV
Of course, no matter what kind of war, civilians are victims, Russia and Ukraine have been talking for three rounds, hoping that the two sides can continue the negotiations, the greater the differences, the more need to sit down to negotiate. It is also hoped that all parties will continue to play a constructive role in persuading peace and promoting talks to prevent the emergence of a large-scale humanitarian crisis. After all, even precision-guided weapons cannot guarantee that there will be no accidental injuries.
In the end, although there have been certain war losses, the Russian Air and Space Force still holds the initiative in the Ukrainian sky, and from the beginning of the war to the present, the main force of the Ukrainian Army has been shrinking in several major cities in the east, and does not dare to go out to fight a field battle on a large scale, and even the capital Kiev is besieged and does not dare to march west to reinforce, mainly because it is worried that as soon as it leaves the city, it will give the Russian Air force the opportunity to bomb on a large scale, after all, during the Gulf War, when the Iraqi army withdrew to the country, it was almost completely destroyed by the US Air Force on the way. Judging from these circumstances, although the Russian Air Force and Space Force have been temporarily frustrated, its prestige is still there.
Finally, I hope peace will return to Ukraine soon!
The author 丨 Chen Renhuan, shenzhen satellite TV straight news chief writer