"Military Sub-Plane" by Ivan the Great
As of today, the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict has broken out for 13 days, and although the pace of russian military advance has slowed down, there is still no stopping trend. Yesterday afternoon local time, it was said that the Russian 61st Motorbus Brigade had already driven to the western outskirts of Kiev, forming a strong response to the Russian airborne troops who had been fighting in Bucha, Ilpian, and other places for more than ten days; and in the eastern suburbs of Kiev, the 37th Brigade of the Russian Eastern Military District (the brigade was equipped with T-72B, which was particularly magical) had finally arrived at Brevali, which was only more than twenty kilometers away from Kiev City, and the reconnaissance troops had begun to make a tentative advance to the Cherkasy Ferry.
The latest situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war (Source: Weibo @ Red Robe Firefly IX)
At present, the intensity of the exchange of fire in the western suburbs of Kiev is gradually decreasing, it is not clear whether the Ukrainian army was driven back to the south of Kiev after the Russian fresh force was put into the battlefield, or whether the Ukrainian army changed the focus of defense after the Russian army in the east was interspersed in place, and the only certainty is that the current situation in Kiev is generally unfavorable to the Ukrainian army.
The Ukrainian army has "two legs": logistics strategy and mercenary strategy
In the case that frontal regular engagement cannot cause great damage to the Russian army, the Ukrainian army is really relying on at present, which has become the following "two legs":
Russian airborne troops ambushed by the Ukrainian army (Source: Weibo@SOSUS)
The first is to use special operations forces to carry out harassing attacks on the logistics routes of the Russian army, that is, to adopt the so-called logistics strategy to attack the supply lines of the Russian army. The forces currently in use may be the special operations center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Command in Kiev, and it may also include the mobile special operations service of the ukrainian police department in Kiev before the war, adding up to a total strength of between 3,000 and 4,000 people. It is estimated that at least half of them are combat units, and the rest are logistics units, and these people have fought well at least in recent days.
Well-equipped Ukrainian SBU special operations, the lower left corner can even see the SIG MCX assault rifle equipped by the US special operations forces (Source: Weibo @ Soviet afterglow)
Second, more importantly, the Ukrainian army began to recruit foreign mercenaries in large numbers. In fact, as soon as the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict broke out on February 24, the Ukrainian government began to recruit mercenaries all over the world, and there were probably two ways to recruit them:
One is to recruit directly through the embassy of the host country, which is equivalent to the embassy issuing advertisements and contact information, but many countries officially prohibit mercenaries from going to Ukraine, so the effect is not good;
The second is that through the many mercenary groups in the West, these mercenary groups act as agents to send recruited people to places such as Poland or Romania in the name of tourism or business. Then agree with the Ukrainian government that crossing the border into Ukraine, the relevant fees will go through international payment channels, paid by the Ukrainian government to the mercenary group, or directly hit the mercenary account, which is the main channel for the Ukrainian government to recruit mercenaries.
As of March 3, according to the Ukrainian government's "official account," they said they had recruited more than 16,000 mercenaries. These people are "from 16 countries", mostly Europeans, most of whom have service experience and can skillfully manipulate Ukrainian anti-tank missiles, man-portable anti-aircraft missiles and other equipment;
By March 7, the Ukrainian government said that the number of mercenaries who had joined the Ukrainian army had reached 20,000, and that the Ukrainian army had formed a detachment of more than 1,000 people based on mercenaries and could be put into battle.
Russian BMD-4 airborne combat vehicle ambushed by the Ukrainian army (Source: Weibo@SOSUS)
So, can the Ukrainian government's "logistics strategy" and "mercenary strategy", especially the "mercenary strategy", really cause greater damage to the Russian army and even "change the tide of the war"?
The role of "logistics strategy"
Let's start with the logistical strategy of the Ukrainian army. In terms of logistical strategy, if the Ukrainian army seems to have really "seen the dawn" a few days ago, but the dawn is gradually dimming in the past few days:
Borrow the frame of the fellow's car and take a heavy machine gun
Quite simply, the Ukrainian army put valuable special operations units into logistical infiltration operations, which is equivalent to using these elite light infantry as "disposable infantry" for attacking and harassing behind enemy lines. Because these people only carry light weapons and some short-range anti-tank firearms, they will inevitably cause heavy casualties when engaging the Russian motorized infantry detachment and helicopter gunships.
Ukrainian artillery observers hiding in student dormitories
In the past few days, the Russian army is making extensive use of units such as the National Guard to carry out clearance and patrol operations on the communication line from northwest Kiev to Pripyat. Combat can be coordinated by heavy weapons, which makes the special forces and special units of the Ukrainian army more and more dangerous in the battle of attacking the logistics route of the Russian army, and the corresponding results in these days are becoming less and less (the Ukrainian army likes to take videos of everything). Since the Ukrainian special operations center in Kiev can use an estimated 2,000 soldiers (as well as support units), this kind of loss-taking raiding operation continues, and the special forces of the Ukrainian army cannot last too long.
The role of the "mercenary strategy"
Compared with the operation against the Russian logistics supply line, how much tactical role can the mercenaries collected by the Ukrainian army in the recent period play in the current war situation, and is it possible to change the current Russian-Ukrainian war situation? Ivan the Great believes that these mercenaries, of course, still have a tactical role, but strategically, the role may not be great, and it may cause a huge backlash.
The Canadian sniper, who has arrived in Ukraine nicknamed "Wali," will join the Ukrainian army with more than a dozen other former British special forces soldiers. He was allegedly deployed in Afghanistan in 2009-2011 as a Canadian soldier, where he became a sharpshooter.
Tactical level: Useful
Saying that "of course there is a tactical role", the Ukrainian mercenaries who came back seemed to have a few masters inside: for example, a few days ago, a Canadian sniper nicknamed "Wali" was publicized to run to Ukraine, this person had fought ISIS in Iraq, and this time said that he was going to Ukraine to "volunteer to help".
"Wally" said he was not disgusted with the Russians because they were both Europeans and both were Christian, "even I have a little fondness for them, I don't hate them." “
"But when I saw the picture of Ukraine being destroyed, what I saw was my son, in danger, suffering. When I see a destroyed building, I see the people who own it, and their pension fund is gone. I went there for humanitarian reasons," he explained.
Although it is not yet known the true identity of his person, but his individual combat capability in the special forces, should be a relatively high level, after he arrived in Canada, may be able to cause a relatively large threat to the front-line command of the Russian middle-level officers in the operation, may also help improve the level of snipers in the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian government spent money to hire such people, this business is not a loss;
Currently, the world's long-range sniper record is also set by an anonymous Canadian sniper: on June 21, 2017, an extremist who was attacking Iraqi soldiers was sniped and killed 3540 meters away using a TAC-50 sniper rifle on a tall building in Iraq.
For example, as the Ukrainian army said, many European mercenaries who have come over have experience in Fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq, and can skillfully operate various anti-tank firearms obtained by the Current Ukrainian Government, such as "Xinlao", "Iron Fist" bazookas, "Javelin" anti-tank missiles, etc. Although the current Ukrainian army uses these anti-tank firearms, and the results are not good, it is better to let these mercenaries operate anti-tank firearms than to let the "Homeland Defense Battalion" with limited combat effectiveness operate, and may really cause a certain amount of damage to the heavy russian troops.
Of course, there are also a considerable number of mercenaries who have no combat experience
More importantly, as we said earlier, the logistics strategy of the Ukrainian army in the northern suburbs of Kiev, after a week of fighting, has shown signs of insufficient strength, and more reserves are urgently needed to fill in and replenish. At present, in the direction of Kiev, with the arrival of a large number of Troops of the Russian Army, the strength of the troops has basically been stretched, and the reorganized tactical corps should only have the National Guard's Rapid Reaction 4 Brigade, the Presidential Guard Brigade, and the 72nd Brigade of the White Cercovy. The Kiev police and the Homeland Defense Battalion, which were urgently mobilized, were armed civilians with only light weapons and Molotov cocktails, and they did not have the ability to attack and harass behind enemy lines.
The Ukrainian special forces infiltrated the rear, and at the same time cooperated with the TB-2 drones in the air did create a lot of trouble for the Russian logistics.
If the Ukrainian army could immediately throw mercenaries into engagement north of Kiev and use it to disrupt the Russian supply line from Pripyat to Kiev, it might be able to continue to expand the results of its logistical strategy and create more trouble for the Russian army. Correspondingly, it was able to delay the speed of the Russian army's operations in the western suburbs of Kiev and the intensity of the attack, although on the whole there was no improvement in the battle situation, but at least it could further disrupt and destroy the campaign layout of the Russian army in the direction of the Kiev campaign.
Strategic level: not very effective, there may be side effects
When it comes to Ukrainian mercenaries, "the strategic role is not necessarily great", in fact, the number of mercenaries recruited by the Ukrainian army at present has to be questioned. Although the Ukrainian government says it has recruited 20,000 people, mercenaries and mercenaries, people don't bring their own dry food to help, you have to give money. It is said that the Ukrainian government has paid a high price of $7,000 a month for mercenaries in Europe, and some high-skilled arms are estimated to receive $10,000 a month.
The Canadian sniper "Wali" introduced earlier did not bring any weapons on this trip, but brought a gas mask, a gilli suit (the sniper's camouflage suit), binoculars and the combat jacket he had been wearing in Afghanistan. He laughed and said: "When I get to Ukraine, they will send me the right weapons, they will not lack weapons, they will give me a whole arsenal.
If we earn $5,000 a month, it means ukraine spends more than $100 million a month just to pay for mercenaries. The Ukrainian government's annual military expenditure is only 4 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to about one-third of the annual military expenditure to pay for the labor costs of mercenaries, then the regular army of the Ukrainian army should basically be scrapped.
Of course, if you really can't pay the money, the Ukrainian government can also make a blank note, first owe the mercenaries, and then make up for it. But this raises another question, which is actually a very long history of mercenaries in European history. The most typical example is that during the Thirty Years' War, a large number of mercenary captains emerged in Central Europe, and some mercenary captains were indeed more capable of fighting.
Swiss mercenaries (Papal Guard)
However, people still take making money as the main purpose, you don't have money to do, then the old man I will go to grab, anyway, the war to the gun is the largest, what government and what security is nonsense. Therefore, mercenaries in Central Europe at that time almost became synonymous with bandits, and every place was like a locust crossing, and all kinds of violent crimes occurred in an endless stream, so that the Thirty Years' War directly reduced the number of mercenaries, the principle of army building in various countries favored the construction of standing armies, and even contributed to the rise of European nationalism.
Mercenary is the biggest feature of mercenaries
According to the relatively weak control of the domestic political organs in Ukraine at present, there have been acts of private checkpoints and wanton expropriation in the name of homeland defense, and these mercenaries have not been paid, if they talk about martial virtue a little, it is better. However, looking at the composition of these mercenaries, when the Russian army has announced that the prisoner of war convention does not apply to the captured mercenaries, that is, they can be shot on the spot, the mercenaries who dare to come to Ukraine are all outlaws who are not afraid of these days, and if these people do not get paid, guess what they will do in the rear of Ukraine?
Putin declared mercenaries not applicable to the Prisoner of War Convention
What is more troublesome is that from the nature of mercenaries, since it is "hiring", then war is a meal for these people, as mentioned earlier, "making money is the main purpose." Machiavelli believes that mercenaries are the "most unreliable and dangerous" of all kinds of military forces, difficult to cope with hard fighting, a large number of robberies in the garrison area, and may even switch to the other side because of the problem of military pay.
This gang of mercenaries in Ukraine is no exception, these people may be able to fight a tailwind battle in the early stages, defend and defend the western territory of Ukraine such as Lviv, but really let them go to the east, to confront the Russian army's motorized infantry, in the Case that the Ukrainian army can't make tanks at all, can only let these people drive pickup trucks and take some individual rocket launchers to harden the Russian armored troops, I am afraid that not many mercenaries dare to take this risk - people are here to make money, not to die, mercenaries are desperate but not crazy at all, What can maximize the benefits, the crackle of the small abacus.
Therefore, Ivan the Great believes that the current "mercenary strategy" of the Ukrainian government may really include a group of outlaws (the latest news says that there are mercenary companies and even snare clerical armed forces in Syria to participate in the war in Ukraine), but how much role this part of the people has played in strategy, whether it can bring about a greater change in the current Ukrainian war situation, Ivan the Great believes that it is doubtful, the current Russian-Ukrainian war situation, is still running on a "normal" track.
Recently, South Korean internet celebrity "Captain Lee Geun" responded to Ukraine's call to join the "International Team", a former veteran of the South Korean Naval Special Operations Corps (UDT) who served as an instructor in the South Korean variety show "False Man".
However, according to a statement by the South Korean Foreign Ministry in early March, Ukraine has been classified as a "travel prohibited country" and will be punished according to law if it enters Ukraine without permission. However, "Captain Lee Geun" revealed on social media twitter that he had set off at the end of February and shouted that if he returned to South Korea alive, he would "bear all the responsibility and punishment".
The traffic star of the universe's first special warfare power has entered the war - tremble, the Great Plains of Eastern Europe!