After a long tug-of-war, the results of the 2022 South Korean general election were officially released on the morning of March 10, and the National Forces party candidate Yoon Seok-yue narrowly defeated the co-Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung to be elected the 20th president of South Korea.
The election was once called the "most unpredictable outcome" in recent decades, with 14 candidates participating in the final competition, but the situation of Yoon Seok-yue and Lee Jae-ming competing for supremacy was very obvious, and the support rate of the two people showed an equal situation for a long time. If Lee jae-myung is seen as Moon's successor, and the two have the same characteristics in their political views, then Yoon Seok-yue has gone to the other extreme.
Yoon Seok-yue ran in the presidential election as early as 2017 to represent the Common Democratic Party, but lost to Moon Jae-in in the primary and missed the presidential candidate of that year. Last year, he participated in the election on behalf of the National Forces Party, reflecting his side of not hesitating to jump left and right in order to "win".
Unlike Lee Jae-myung's grassroots background, Yoon Seok-wook was born into a wealthy family and was admitted to Seoul National University, the highest institution of learning in South Korea. His 27 years as a prosecutor have placed him in the inner circle of South Korea's highest power.
Yoon Seok-wook led the investigation into the liquidation of former presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, successfully highlighting her "discerning right from wrong" personality, becoming South Korea's attorney general in 2019 and becoming Moon Jae-in's confidant. However, due to insisting on investigating a number of key members of the ruling party, he broke with Moon Jae-in and formally resigned from the position of attorney general in March last year and officially participated in the presidential election in June last year.
This year's general election has set an unpleasant tone from the beginning, especially the endless black material of the two candidates, the "Dazhuangdong real estate fraud case", the wife's involvement in the fraud storm, etc., the two candidates occupy the hot search from time to time, for many South Koreans, what they want to do in this election is not to elect the candidate of their choice, but to elect the less annoying candidate as president.
The reason why Yin Xiyue won the victory has more to do with Moon Jae-in, after all, the epidemic prevention and control is not effective, house prices are soaring, and even some tax policies that cut middle-class leeks are counted on Moon Jae-in's head, which also exacerbates the neutral voters' fall to conservative forces.
Yoon Seok-woo won the election by a narrow margin of less than 1 percent, the smallest gap since South Korea had an "elected president." Interestingly, Moon jae-in still has 45% support, the highest support rate of South Korea's presidents before leaving office. That is to say, Moon Jae-in is likely to lose to his five-year term, and the attitudes of Koreans toward Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-wook are complex and divisive.
For example, Yin Xiyue's male voters received 49.5% of the vote, representing the younger male class. Lee Jae-ming, on the other hand, has 49.6% of women's support and can be said to be ideal for Korean women. This contradiction and antagonism foreshadows the fragmentation of Korean society, which may be further deepened. In the near future, South Korea's largest party is still the Common Democratic Party, and Yoon Seok-wook's National Power Party has not yet completed integration, so the dispersion of power is nailed down, the future party struggle is destined to become more intense, and South Korea's economic situation and foreign policy will also usher in changes.
South Korea is in a sharply changing external environment, and Yoon Seok-yue lacks political experience, so South Korea's diplomacy will change even more. Based on the fact that the core of the Rok-US alliance will not change, the two candidates' views are the same on this point, but Lee Jae-ming expresses it more cryptically and Yoon Seok-yue is more out of line.
Yoon Seok-yue started out under the banner of "strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance", and Yoon Seok-yue believed that South Korea's economic policy was too subservient to China, resulting in damage to South Korea's security interests. The future Xiyue government will surely stand more closely with the United States. Whether it is a promise to add THAAD or a demand that the United States redeploy its tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea, it is a concrete manifestation of this demand. The vague policies of the Moon era, such as the cold treatment of THAAD, the "three noes" policy toward China, may be overturned.
Many people worry that such a political elite, relying on inciting public opinion to come to power, and then relying on the United States to provoke trouble, will ruin the future of the country, just like Ukrainian President Zelenskiy. This fear is not unreasonable, at least from the current point of view, Yin Xiyue and Zelenskiy are still very similar.
In order to curry favor with the United States, Yin Xiyue will inevitably make some articles on "dealing with China's issues", Sino-South Korean relations may usher in a period of change, and the situation in East Asia is also likely to set off a new round of waves. But don't worry too much, because South Korean companies are closely linked to the Chinese economy, and they can't allow Yoon Seok-yue to act recklessly and hurt Sino-South Korean relations.
The "harsh words" released by Yin Xiyue during the candidate period are caused by the needs of a specific period, and in order to curry favor with conservative supporters and extreme voters during the canvassing stage, the two populist candidates will inevitably be swayed by the so-called folk voices. Now that you're president, it's hard to talk wildly. After all, there are not many things that the South Korean president can manage, and major decisions depend on how the interest groups behind it pull it.
The only suspense at the moment is, what is Moon's fate? It should be known that Yoon Seok-wook has continuously liquidated the two presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, and personally sent the three-star prince Lee Jae-yong to prison, which can be said to have beaten all kinds of politicians and chaebols. Moreover, Yin Xiyue also personally said that he wanted to liquidate Moon Jae-in, and I am afraid that the "Blue House Curse" that has been hyped by various media for many years will be fulfilled in President Wen.