Europe
Li Guangman's freezing point rating is 1140
The Russo-Ukrainian war has entered its 13th day, it seems that this war can not end in a short period of time, the most disturbing thing is that the United States is not working to end this war, but for the long-term development of this war, a steady stream of dollars, warplanes, missiles to Ukraine, the war is sliding in a worrying direction.
Everyone is analyzing who will be the biggest beneficiaries and the biggest victims of this war, and I think that the biggest victims of this war are none other than the Ukrainian people, and here I am talking about the Ukrainian people, not the Ukrainian government, and the Ukrainian people who have been displaced as refugees are the biggest victims. The United States is obviously the biggest beneficiary of this war, which was triggered by the strategic encirclement and suppression of Russia by the United States, and the United States will certainly receive the greatest war dividends. So will Europe be the victims of this war? The answer is certain. The only thing that makes people puzzling is that as a victim, European countries are sparing no effort to participate in this war, fully cooperate with the United States to participate in sanctions against Russia, even if these sanctions will hurt the interests of Europe, but European countries kill eight hundred self-inflicted wounds without complaint, when Ukraine trembles in this war, Europe is not only an accomplice of the United States, but also a companion, Europe in this war in this war in addition to freezing Russian assets in Europe, there will be no gain, and will lose a lot.
On March 8, U.S. President Joe Biden formally signed an executive order prohibiting U.S. energy imports from Russia, which includes: imports of Russian crude oil and certain petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and coal; prohibition of new U.S. investment in Russia's energy sector; and prohibition of Americans from funding or supporting investment in energy companies in Russia. U.S. President Joe Biden said in his speech that the decision was made in close consultation with U.S. allies and partners. The United States is working closely with partners in Europe to develop a long-term strategy to reduce its dependence on Russian energy.
Because the U.S. oil imports to Russia are not large, it can be said that the issuance of an energy ban on Russia will not hurt the United States at all, and may even allow the United States to gain a larger market share in Europe because of restrictions on Russian energy exports.
Subsequently, the United Kingdom announced plans to stop importing Russian oil and corresponding petroleum products by the end of 2022 to further strengthen sanctions against Russia.
In this round of sanctions against Russia, which have caused great harm to the EU, will the EU continue to play with the United States? After all, 45% of the EU's natural gas and 25% of its crude oil need to be imported from Russia. The result is that this time the EU still has not escaped the US coercion, decided to reduce the import of Russian natural gas by two-thirds this year, although the EU did not completely ban the import of oil and gas from Russia like the United States and britain, but still on the US chariot, became an accomplice in the war with Russia. Previously, Nord Stream-2, which is of great significance to alleviating the natural gas tension in eu countries, has been yellowed by the United States, and now Europe is asked to completely cut off energy ties with Russia. Russia has issued a threat of counter-sanctions to interrupt Nord Stream-1 and completely cut off Europe's supply of natural gas.
Recently, the price of natural gas in Europe has risen to the sky, before the European gas price was only about 300 euros / thousand cubic meters, but now it has risen to 3500 euros, and even reached nearly 3900 US dollars per thousand cubic meters, international oil prices have also been climbing sharply, Brent crude oil futures prices broke through $130 per barrel on March 7.
In addition, EU countries also have a heavy dependence on Wheat and fertilizers in Russia and Belarus, while Ukraine in the war is called "European granary", when Ukraine fell into war, Europe is afraid of a food crisis, and now international food prices have risen sharply, and the rice bowl of Europeans is afraid to be unstable.
Perhaps the biggest harm to Europe is not the rise in oil and gas, nor fertilizers and food, but the sharp fall of the euro. Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the euro has fallen sharply against the dollar, and on the 8th, the euro exchange rate was 1.0884 against the dollar, the lowest level since May 2020, and in the past month, the euro has fallen by 4.7%. As you may recall, the Kosovo War in 1999 was also launched by the US-led NATO, and the people of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia who suffered that time were the euro, and that war dealt a huge blow to the newly born euro, which can be described as a high point of birth. The collapse of the euro means that the EU's position in the international financial market has declined, and it means that the purchasing power and living standards of EU countries in the international market have declined relatively.
There is also a very serious problem that may be long-term or even historical, that is, the rupture of relations between Russia and Europe, even after this Russo-Ukrainian war, with the decline of Europe and Russia, there will not be a strong country or group of countries on the European continent that can compete with the United States, and there will be a huge crack in the relationship between Russia and Europe, which may be the new "wall of power" that the United States needs between Russia and Europe, that is, the "wall of the new Cold War". This will lead to a new broken Europe, the unity of Europe will be gone, and the "offshore checks and balances" strategies of the United States and the United Kingdom will achieve significant results.
There is not a single visionary politician on the entire continent, no country that can escape U.S. control and dominate European politics, and neither French President Emmanuel Macron nor German Chancellor Schultz has shown this temperament. For the emergence of this situation, the newly outgoing former German Chancellor Angela Merkel is afraid to be fainted.
I think Europe needs to conduct deep introspection and find a new way to rebuild Europe, otherwise it will always be controlled and manipulated by the United States, without its own independent political and military sovereignty, without its own independent group strategy, I am afraid that it will only accelerate its division and decline, and it will become more and more difficult to find its figure in the multipolar pattern of the world.
A recent speech by AfD leader Alice Weddell at a meeting of the German Bundestag may have been somewhat introspective. "It's a fatal mistake to play with Ukraine with promises that they can join the EU, they can join NATO, which will allow us to drag Ukraine into this confrontation and this dangerous test," she said, and the smart thing to do, as Henry Kissinger said in 2014, is right, "If Ukraine is to survive and prosper, it will never be an outpost on either side." "In reality now, whether Ukraine can join NATO becomes a red line for Russia, Russia will no longer allow NATO to expand eastward as before, Russia has said this for 20 years, since then, there are many opportunities to give Ukraine neutral security, and this is beneficial to all parties, Ukraine can cooperate with everyone, become a bridge between the East and the West, rather than the object of contention between all parties, but the hardliners still follow the logic of the Cold War, firmly make a commitment to Ukraine to join NATO, The arrogant denial of Russia, the denial of Russia's great power status, the humiliation of Russia is only a remnant of a failed Western history, which Germany can only threaten with words, after all, we have nothing to threaten them, after all, these sanctions have caused Much more harm to Germany than to Russia, and these pretentious sanctions do not end the war in Ukraine, like the colors of the Ukrainian flag we projected at the Brandenburg Gate. Even after the war, we will still live on the same continent as Russia, and we cannot afford to give up the opportunity to build a European security architecture, but only if we reject the idea that we are the West and the East is black and white, Germany can and should play an honest mediator in this process. ”
On March 8, French President Emmanuel Macron said in a speech on the current situation in Russia and Ukraine at the voter meeting on the same day that Russia and its people need to be respected, and without Russia's participation, long-term peace on the European continent cannot be achieved. "Long-term lasting peace cannot be achieved without Russia's participation in the establishment of a 'comprehensive security architecture' on the European continent, because this is a requirement of historical and geographical factors." "We must continue to talk to the people of Russia and Belarus." He also said that if Russia shuts down gas supply, next winter in Europe will be more difficult.
Where is the future of Europe? At the China-France-Germany Leaders' Video Summit held on March 8, a passage made by the Chinese leader deserves to be carefully experienced by European leaders, "China supports France and Germany in proceeding from Europe's own interests, thinking about Europe's lasting security, adhering to strategic autonomy, and promoting the construction of a balanced, effective and sustainable European security framework." ”
According to the current trend of European politics, the future of Europe will be bleak, and it will only decay more and more, truly becoming a broken aristocracy. If Europe wants to have a bright future, it needs not only introspection, but also action. If reconciliation with Russia cannot be achieved, there will certainly be a "new Cold War wall" between Russia and Europe, and as long as such a "new Cold War wall" exists, reconciliation on the European continent will never occur. There will be no future. The second is to get rid of the political and military control of the United States, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has given the United States more reasons to increase the stationing of troops in Europe, but also to strengthen NATO, If European countries want to get rid of the control of the United States, strategic autonomy is the prerequisite, and the establishment of a European defense system and European military strength independent of NATO is the prerequisite. The third is to no longer dance with the United States in international affairs, but to show an independent European consciousness, to come up with European insights, and to become a pole of international political forces independent of the United States in international affairs, rather than colluding with the United States and colluding with the United States. Before and after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe's strategic interests were greatly harmed, but Germany, France and other major European countries did not make policy choices favorable to European interests, but chose from the standpoint of the United States, and finally made Europe sold by the United States and helped the United States count money.
The future of the European continent is not in the United States, nor in Britain, but in the countries of the European continent, in the European countries themselves, not to be accomplices of the United States, not to accompany the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, to carry out deep reflection, and perhaps there is a future, otherwise, Europe will only further decline and further sink.
When Europe becomes an accomplice of the United States to contain China, it becomes the object of our struggle, and in the current severe and complex international situation, Europe is also the force that China needs to fight for. Only by striving for and using European power, jointly coping with the current complex international situation, and jointly opposing the global hegemony of the United States, china and Europe may still be able to find common topics and common solutions, and it is possible to make common choices that are conducive to each other's core interests.
From accomplices to accompaniment to introspection, does Europe, which has lost its strategic autonomy, still have a future?