Author: Battle Flash
Since February 24, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been breaking out for some time, and the current stalemate is still ongoing, and Russia has temporarily failed to achieve its strategic goals and encountered some difficulties. At the same time, Ukraine, with the strong support of the West, is still carrying out strong resistance, and the Russians and Ukrainians are talking while fighting, you come and go, and it is not yet known whose hand the deer died. Today, a careful analysis of some political, economic, and military issues in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict still has great enlightenment for China. Here, the author mainly analyzes in the form of asking questions and trying to interpret, and strives to be objective as much as possible.
First, if the mainland uses force against Taiwan, how will the pressure we face compare to Russia?
As everyone knows, as far as China is concerned, in addition to the most important task of economic development, cross-strait reunification has gradually been put on the agenda and is getting closer and closer to us. When the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, the Taiwan authorities were very panicked, believing that the mainland might take advantage of the opportunity to act, and it would be difficult for Taiwan to obtain military protection from the United States. In this Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, what measures has the United States taken as a most important bystander, even a potential party? sanction.
That is to say, the actions of the United States against Russia are mainly sanctions, including political, economic, military, cultural and other aspects of sanctions, to some extent, this is almost a declaration of war. However, the United States has drawn two bottom lines, one is to avoid direct military conflicts with Russia, and the other is to strike at Russia as much as possible without harming the national interests of the United States.
It should be reminded that there is not a directly comparable relationship between China's recovery of Taiwan and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the West unanimously defines Russia's military actions as aggression, but China's possible military operations to recover Taiwan are not in this category. However, the hostility of the United States toward China and Russia is basically the same, and even the hostility toward China is even greater.
Then, the reaction of the United States in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can be used as a reference. In contrast, it can be basically assumed that the United States will refuse to directly send troops to help Taiwan fight against the mainland. At the same time, without harming the national interests of the United States, the United States will strike at China to the greatest extent. Considering that the degree of economic integration between China and the United States is much higher than that of Russia, the intensity and freedom of action of the United States will be limited.
Second, how high is the cost of being isolated by the Western world, and can China afford a similar blow?
In the face of this major historic event of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Western world, led by the United States, has almost poured out of the nest and exerted the strongest pressure on Russia other than the military, including the United States, Britain, the European Union, Canada, Japan, Australia and South Korea, and NATO has openly supported the provision of various military equipment to Ukraine, and even sent mercenaries.
It is not difficult to see that this is a group, a loose alliance of countries that do not represent the international community, which, of course, has become accustomed to presenting itself as an international community and has a very strong voice. In fact, there are still many countries that support Russia, including Iran, Syria, Belarus, North Korea and Venezuela, while there are also some neutral countries that have not reacted too much to Russia's behavior, including India, Pakistan, Brazil and the five States of Central Asia, of course, many African countries, including South Africa.
In other words, because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the whole world is unconsciously labeled, and they react accordingly out of their own positions or interests. But it is undeniable that these countries, led by the United States, are very influential and control almost all the basic rules of the existing world operation. Because of this, some analysts believe that modern warfare has undergone fundamental changes, and if it is not accepted by the current rules, the price may be unprecedented.
For China, the cards that the West may play must be analyzed and possible countermeasures should be considered. Because unsurprisingly, these will be used in the future, and never measure the possible malice of the opponent with a kind mind, because that malice will only be unexpected. Pessimistically speaking, in the face of the Rise and Fall of the Western World, China is likely to be unable to afford it, at least for now.
Third, propaganda and ideological struggle will always be the most important second battlefield outside the war itself.
For this Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the public opinion differences on the Chinese Internet have always existed, and their main views are divided into two kinds. The first is the voice against Russia, arguing that war is wrong no matter what, and that Russia should not impose its own security interests on Ukraine and invade Ukraine; the second is that Russia's actions are beyond reproach, because the West has exerted excessive pressure, leading Russia to take forced measures to defend its national interests.
For the first view, the most important theoretical basis is more moral, that is, to oppose war, because war will bring bloodshed and death, and will cause ordinary people in Ukraine to suffer from innocence; for the second view, the most critical theoretical basis comes from the national interest, that is, China and Russia are facing the strong pressure of hegemonism led by the United States.
In fact, I am inclined to the second view, because in a very early analysis, I thought that the best way for Russia to break the situation is military means, while China is economic means. The reason is very simple, to use their own strengths and attack others' weaknesses, so that the chances of winning are the greatest, after all, the opponent is the United States, which has the strongest comprehensive strength in the world today, and a small group of developed countries around the United States. That is to say, in the face of the strategic attempt of Western countries to weaken Russia and even disintegrate Russia for the second time, Russia's initiative is the best choice, which is typical of advancing and retreating, and attacking and defending.
The tragedy of Ukraine, on the other hand, is that its national strength is too weak, and it originally belonged to the Soviet Union, but now it has to turn around and help the West deal with Russia, which is never acceptable to Russia. When the non-capping of Sino-Russian cooperation has become a well-known fact, it seems that it is not very understandable to hold high the banner of anti-war and oppose Russia's behavior. Many times, small kindness will really lead to great tragedies, and the world is inherently ism and camp, and you can't pretend not to see it.
Just so much, the words of a family, and finally a reminder, the current world is still dominated by countries, not to the world of unity, then, there will be friends, there will be enemies. What we have to do is to empathize with our friends and be vigilant against the dangers of our enemies.