The second round of the Russian-Ukrainian talks ended on 3.3 local time, and the result of the talks was a temporary ceasefire and the opening of humanitarian channels. After the talks, the news from the Ukrainian side was not satisfied with the results of the talks, and then there were media reports that Ukraine would enter the counter-offensive stage from defense. Apparently Zelenskiy did not get what he wanted at the negotiating table, hoping to promote the talks. So what does Zelenskiy want?
That's what we mentioned in our last article, which is that the vertical division along the Dnipro River into east and west, and the horizontal north-south direction from Moldova-Odessa-Kherson-Crimea, turning Ukraine into a landlocked country. Of course, these regions will not be Russian territory at least nominally, but they will all become independent in their respective names, and after the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk, Kherson also established a republic. However, this dismemberment may not be the most severe, see the following figure:
As can be seen from the above figure, this map not only expands inland in the direction of the coast from the first map, but also draws the two western oblasts, because historically these places were not Ukrainian. And Ukraine hopes that the best outcome will probably look like this (below). That is, the red part remains controversial and does not admit it.
There is a saying that what cannot be obtained on the battlefield cannot be obtained on the negotiating table, and if Ukraine wants to get the best results, it must see the truth on the battlefield. So, does Ukraine still have the corresponding strength?
As you can see from the above figure, Ukraine has 160,000 (there are also 190,000 said), 116 aircraft, 493 helicopters, 25 warships, 10,543 tank armored vehicles, this regular army, and 150,000 National Guard, the two add up, there are more than three hundred thousand. In the past few days of fighting, according to Russian reports: the Russian army destroyed a total of 1533 targets in ukraine's military infrastructure, including 54 command posts and communication centers, 39 sets of anti-aircraft missile systems and 52 radar stations. The Russians also destroyed 60 Ukrainian aircraft and 47 drones, 484 tanks and other armored vehicles, 63 multiple rocket launchers, 217 field artillery and mortars, and 336 military special vehicles. From this point of view, although the Ukrainian side is wounded, the armored force is still there, and if the Western stingers, javelins and other weapons are in place, it still has the ability to launch a counter-offensive.
The question is where and in what way the Ukrainian army will counterattack. Judging from the above figure, the Kiev direction basically does not have the conditions for counter-offensive. Kharkov direction Ukraine has this ability, but soon will be beaten down, that is to send people head. The Sparton region, the most concentrated ukrainian military, even in Kiev, did not return to reinforcements, but Russia is likely to be waiting for him to come out, after all, the position war is not easy to fight.
On the southern front, the main battlefields are Mariupol and Zaporizhia, which have basically completed the encirclement, and Odessa has basically lost its fighting after taking Kherson again yesterday. So the key to the counter-offensive was in the west. If Ukraine had arranged for regular troops to disguise themselves as civilians and use humanitarian passages to get out of the city and gather in the west, with mercenaries and Western reinforcements, and the formation of a rapid reaction force along the southern coast to Odessa and Kherson, it would not be impossible to relieve the crisis in Mariupol. On the Southern Front, Russia currently seems to have arranged landing ships at sea as a reserve, but no one knows how much the strength is. Therefore, it is not impossible for the Ukrainian counter-offensive, but once the operation is discovered, Russia can reinforce in time, that is a matter of sending heads.
As for engaging in small surprise attacks, accumulating small victories into big victories should be useful to the Middle East, and in the Russo-Ukrainian war, it can only be painless and cannot affect the overall situation.
#俄乌第二轮会谈: Agree on a temporary ceasefire ##Ukraine can drag Russia into a protracted war##乌克兰雇佣兵被俄罗斯空军接走 #