Macron is late in coming: the "dangerous chess" that he played the final candidacy, where did his confidence come from

The Paper's special contributor Zhang Yutao

The biggest "fake suspense" finally landed - on the evening of March 3, local time, as several regional newspapers in France successively published the online reading version of the next day's newspaper, the content of French President Macron's "Letter to the French" was also announced. In the letter, Macron wrote: "I implore you to trust in the new presidency. In the face of the challenges of the century, I, as a candidate, want to work with you to create a unique French and European solution. This means that the "suspense" has finally landed, and Macron has finally temporarily gotten up to leave his presidential throne and walk into the presidential election arena.

Perhaps Macron's decision itself is no surprise, after all, in the history of the French Fifth Republic, all presidents except Macron's predecessor Hollande have chosen to seek re-election. What's more, in various previous interviews and public statements, he has made no secret of his ambitions. But since the referendum turned France's presidency from seven to five years, starting in 2002, neither Sarkozy on the right nor Hollande on the left has been re-elected.

Emboldened

As for the timing of Macron's announcement of his candidacy, there was news released from December last year, but at that time, France was affected by the new crown virus variant Omilon, and ushered in the sixth wave of the epidemic. At that time, on the one hand, all the sources in France pointed out that Macron would announce his candidacy before the New Year in 2022, until he himself personally came forward in an interview to point out that responding to the epidemic was a priority over campaigning, so he took the ebb and flow of the epidemic as a condition for his official announcement of candidacy.

Since the beginning of 2022, in terms of propaganda strategy, Macron has stressed to the media on the one hand that he hopes to complete previously unfinished reforms, and on the other hand, he mentioned that with the escalation of the crisis on the Russian-Ukrainian border, he cannot declare his candidacy in the face of the threat of war. This constitutes another condition for his official announcement of candidacy, and the Crisis between Russia and Ukraine will ease.

Since the middle of February this year, the French government has successively relaxed health regulations, and on the morning of March 3, when Macron officially announced his candidacy, the French prime minister further relaxed health measures, which indicates that the epidemic in France is becoming more stable, and even the hope of completely getting rid of the epidemic is becoming more and more obvious. But on the other hand, with the failure of various diplomatic efforts, including Macron himself, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis not only did not cool down, but gradually heated up until the war ignited.

It was not until March 3, less than 24 hours before the 18:00 deadline announced by the French Constitutional Council on March 4, that Macron officially announced his candidacy, satisfying the last of three conditions (i.e., formal announcement of candidacy, the first two conditions being the signatures and reporting of assets of 500 elected officials).

Macron's confidence in running for election comes more from his own performance. In the recent polls, nearly 40% of the French population expressed their trust in Macron, a significant improvement in the data, and a clear advantage over the trust of his two predecessors, Hollande (21%) and Sarkozy (30%).

Even as an incumbent president running for re-election, announcing his candidacy too late is a "dangerous move." According to the analysis of the French media "Le Monde", Macron's campaign team strives to postpone his candidacy and announce his candidacy "normal" to further highlight his image as a ruling president and away from political struggle, but this strategy is easy to attract accusations from competitors for "overusing his presidency". However, due to the further escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and the external crisis, Macron's busy work arrangements provide a reason for the implementation of this strategy.

Although Russian President Vladimir Putin's recognition of the independence of the two "republics" in eastern Ukraine on February 21 caused doubts among the French public about Macron's ability to mediate diplomatically, since the war between Russia and Ukraine, he has almost become the only Western leader who can maintain normal communication with Putin, although such communication is difficult to achieve practical results, but Macron has used this to prove his excellent diplomatic ability. According to a March 4 poll, nearly 60 percent of French people approved of Macron as a presidential mediator of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.

In a televised address on the situation in Russia and Ukraine on March 2, Macron generously acknowledged the impact of the conflict on French life and the French economy, but also used these difficulties as a backdrop to tell him that "the only guide to action is to protect (you)". It not only inherits the role of "protector president" since the new crown epidemic, but also further strengthens the image of the "crisis president" who has faced many changes in the face of the "yellow vest" to the russian-Ukrainian conflict since taking office.

Judging from the way he announced his candidacy, Macron chose a relatively low-key approach. Many previous speculations have suggested that he announced that the way he would run would be to release videos online and hold rallies offline. However, in the end, he chose to announce his candidacy through the release of "A Letter to the French" through the local media, and chose a more popular approach and "decentralized" local media in the media. This is not only conducive to diluting his image of a "rich president", but also, as mentioned in his letter, "I cannot organize my election normally due to the current background", and choosing this method also indicates that he will maintain the image of "president" until the last day of his term.

tactics

In terms of campaign strategy, because the first round of voting in the election is less than two months away, it is relatively short compared to the campaigns of other presidents. This also means that Macron's second term of office will have a strong continuity with the first term. Reforms such as pension reform, which were already proposed during the 2017 campaign, although they have not been able to materialize due to the epidemic, will undoubtedly continue to be pushed if he is re-elected.

In terms of specific strategies, Macron will further exacerbate the policy's tendency to turn right, as can be seen from several speeches and public statements since September last year. On the security front, he traveled to Marseille last September in hopes of changing the status quo of poor security, and the decision to restart the construction of nuclear power plants announced in February was directly aimed at the voter base of france's traditional right.

But that in no way means macron will give up the votes of left-wing voters. Since entering February, Macron's campaign has gradually co-opted left-wing politicians, garnering votes from left-wing voters by gaining their support. Just a few days ago, Former French Socialist Prime Minister Manuel Valls publicly supported Macron in the media, and according to media sources, François Rebsamen, a socialist who is currently mayor of Dijon under former President Hollande, is likely to publicly support Macron in the near future.

According to the latest polls and the willingness to vote in the first round, Macron is relatively ahead of other competitors. Although his diplomatic efforts to mediate the Russian-Ukrainian crisis ended in failure, his support rose in the face of the "rally 'round the flag' effect", that is, the rise in the short term of the country's leaders' support in the event of a crisis or war, as the war officially broke out. In terms of specific figures, his approval rating has reached 29%, far exceeding the 16% of Marina Le Pen, who is currently in second place.

Election

From the overall political spectrum of France, the left has always been divided in the absence of a "bellwether" due to the collapse of the French Socialist Party in 2017 and the difficulty of regrouping after that. This state of affairs has continued to this day, even exacerbated by the fact that there are four candidates on the left running. So Macron's main rivals are currently from the right, including Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour from the far right, and Valérie Pecresse from the traditional right.

At present, Macron has a relatively clear advantage in the election with his presidency. The controversial statements of the two far-right candidates before the Russia-Ukraine conflict are now in charge, and the personal abilities of the traditional right-wing candidate Pekrés have been questioned, and Macron should have won the first round of voting more easily. As for whether there will be variables in the second round of voting, it still depends on the specific performance and the position of the candidates who were eliminated after the first round. Assuming that another candidate entering the second round of voting is from the right, and he can maximize the integration of center-right to far-right voters, the final outcome of the election is still variable.

(Yutao Zhang, Graduate Student, School of Journalism, Sciences Po)

Editor-in-Charge: Zhu Zhengyong

Proofreader: Zhang Liangliang