Author: Battle Flash
According to the Global Network, the second round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has begun. However, the demands before the talks between the two sides are still full of contradictions, and the game outside the negotiating table is more intense. According to CCTV News, on March 3, local time, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces issued a message saying that the Ukrainian army will change from a defensive model to a counter-offensive model. According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, Putin said in a phone call with Macron that Russia's task of carrying out military operations against Ukraine "will be completed no matter what", and Ukraine's attempt to buy time by delaying the negotiations will only lead to additional demands from the Russian side in the negotiations. Not only that, Russia also began to counter the United States and stopped supplying rocket engines to the United States.
From the ukrainian side's opening of the counter-offensive mode, it can be seen that the War Situation between Russia and Ukraine is undergoing a certain situation reversal. The reason why Ukraine has this confidence and Russia is that it has even opened a counter-offensive mode. There are two reasons, both internal and external. On the one hand, inside Ukraine, the Ukrainian army has begun to stabilize its position and resist a wave of violent Russian attacks. And although Kiev in Ukraine was surrounded by Russian troops, Russian armored forces did not advance, which gave Ukraine a chance to breathe. Coupled with the fact that Russia and Ukraine have already opened two rounds of negotiations, Ukraine is likely to see this as a sign that the Russian side has to compromise. In this way, Ukraine's internal active resistance, or even active counterattack, will become a chip on its negotiating table and increase ukraine's initiative in negotiations.
On the other hand, there is international support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. NATO's military assistance to Ukraine has been in progress, and a variety of advanced weapons have been continuously entering Ukraine, which can directly enhance the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army, which also makes Ukraine inflate, believing that it has a high and low strength with the Russian army. Add to that the Ukrainian president's statement that Ukraine is preparing to welcome the first batch of "foreign volunteers", numbering as many as 16,000. This will undoubtedly further strengthen Ukraine's military strength, and it will be more comfortable against Russia.
And the sanctions against Russia are all-consuming. In addition to the traditional sanctions from the financial, trade, political and other aspects, Western countries have staged a 360-degree, dead-end "blockade" against Russia. The ban on Russian sports, the banning of Russian films, the prohibition of Russian aircraft from entering and using U.S. airspace, etc., even Russian cats have been sanctioned and cannot go abroad to participate in so-called competitions. Biden even said that it was to turn Russia into an "outcast of the international community." Such all-round sanctions will inevitably put some pressure on Russia. This is reflected in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, that is, the longer Russia drags on, the greater the cost of war, the more severe the sanctions it faces outside the war, and the worse the impact on Russia.
In such a complex international situation, how long can Russia hold out? Has the situation in Russia and Ukraine been reversed? In fact, the War between Russia and Ukraine is still russia's initiative, and it has captured the main Ukrainian city of Kherson. It is a strategic port city in southern Ukraine. CNN said the fall of the city would be "an important turning point" in russian operations, allowing Russia to gain further control over the Black Sea coast of southern Ukraine. The huge Russian armored force outside Kiev is already waiting for it, and although the much-watched "Battle of Kiev" has not yet begun, the Russian army clearly has offensive advantages.
Once the Russian army was completely provoked, the armored troops marched into Kiev, the Ukrainian soldiers estimated that it was difficult to resist, and the heavy fire was opened, which was a complete disaster for the whole of Kiev. Therefore, it is almost impossible for Ukraine to reverse the situation, and the Russian army is still advancing and holding the initiative on the battlefield. Ukraine's so-called counter-offensive model is probably just an external voice, and it is difficult to have practical significance.
As for how long can Russia hold out? The Russian side has already given the answer, that is, it will never give up until its strategic goals are achieved. On the eve of the second round of talks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine must include a component that would destroy weapons that pose a threat to Russia. Putin has made it clear that Ukraine will use negotiations to delay time and Russia will make more demands. These statements show that Russia still has the confidence to deal with Ukraine, and will not easily withdraw its troops without achieving its corresponding strategic objectives. The counterattack against the United States shows that Russia is not afraid of any sanctions.