Does Russia have territorial claims against Ukraine? I think there is. This appeal appeared clearly in a telephone speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 21. Putin recounted how modern Ukraine was established: 1. After 1917, Lenin assigned part of Russian territory to Ukraine; 2. Before and after the Great Patriotic War, Stalin incorporated parts of Poland, Hungary, and Romania into the Soviet Union and handed it over to Ukraine; 3. Khrushchev assigned Crimea to Ukraine.
Putin believes that Lenin is the architect of modern Ukraine, which can be called Vladimir-Lenin Ukraine. However, now Ukraine has forgotten everything and demolished Lenin's monument in the country, which is called decommunalization.
Putin's words turned sharply and said: "You want to go to communism? Well, that suited us perfectly. But we must not give up halfway, as they say. We are ready to show you what true de-communion means for Ukraine. ”
The phrase already hinted at a special military operation launched by Russia in the days that followed.
When considering Russia's territorial claims, the main factors to consider are the size of the local Russian-speaking population, whether it is near the sea, whether it is on the left bank of the Dnieper River, whether it is close to Russia, and whether the management costs are high.
In the first case, Russia acquired Kharkov, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson. In this way, Crimea is connected to the Russian mainland. The Sea of Azov also became Russia's inland sea.
Scenario 1
In the second case, Russia added Dnieper, Nikolayev and Odessa to the first case. In this way, Ukraine will become a landlocked country. Ukraine's major Russian-speaking regions and Oblasts with a high proportion of ethnic Russians have returned to Russia, which means that 70% of Russians living in Ukraine will return to Russia, and the lower Dnieper River will be fully integrated into Russia. These states are more pro-Russian and have lower administrative costs.
Scenario 2
In the third case, in the second case, Chernihiv and Sameo, which border Russia, are added. In this way, Russia's border with Ukraine moved forward, and Russia's strategic depth increased.
Scenario 3
In the fourth case, Russia adds Portava to the country and its border continues westward. At this point, these are the places where Russia needs to digest for a long time in the future.
Scenario 4
Further west, Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, will be brought in. The vast area west of Kiev is pro-Western, and if Russia is directly included in its territory, the cost of control is extremely high, and Russia may face a long-term soft war in these regions.
A future Ukraine could have a Russian-backed pro-Russian government and then a government-in-exile abroad; it could also have two governments on its soil, a pro-Russian government with Kiev as its capital, and an incumbent Ukrainian government centered on Lviv.