Recently, Euler Automobile officially responded to the official response to the cessation of orders by Euler Black Cat and Euler White Cat. Euler brand CEO Dong Yudong publicly posted on the social platform: "Euler black cat and white cat stopped taking orders, not to stop production, we are actively seeking solutions." ”
From the content of this open letter, we can see euler automobile's response to some of the previous aspects that have aroused doubt.
Dong Yudong said, "It is a helpless move to stop receiving orders, in the environment of lack of core and less electricity, the cumulative number of orders waiting for black and white cats to be delivered to users has exceeded 20,000 units, according to the current production volume, if orders continue to be received, the delivery of new orders will wait until the second half of 2022." "And promise to the owner: all the after-sales service of the black and white cats will continue to be maintained and will not be affected by the cessation of orders."
Raw material prices have risen, and chips are in short supply
In 2021, the mainland new energy terminal market sales are hot. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in mainland China reached 3.521 million units, an increase of nearly 1.6 times year-on-year, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years.
However, in contradiction with the "hot" end market, there are various problems in the automotive supply chain in 2021.
According to data from market research institute IHS Markit, in the late 2021, the price of lithium-ion batteries rose by about 10%-20%, and the increase in raw material lithium salt reached about 400%. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate rose again, shanghai steel federation released data show that on February 24, battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 0.5 million yuan / ton, the average price of 470,000 yuan / ton; lithium hydroxide rose 0.5 million yuan - 10,000 yuan / ton, the highest reported 427,500 yuan / ton; cobalt chloride, cobalt sulfate have risen to varying degrees.
CITIC Securities Research Report also pointed out that the Australian lithium mine production disturbance continued, last year's Q4 production fell month-on-month, lithium ore prices are expected to exceed 3,000 US dollars / ton in the first half of this year.
What is suffocating is that the current supply of raw materials for lithium batteries cannot increase rapidly in the short term. UBS group expects that in the future, the rise of raw materials for new energy vehicles in the world will be longer than the chip crisis in 2021, and the mining and investment speed of important resources will be significantly slower than the development of electrification of the automobile industry today, and the phenomenon of short supply or demand will become more and more common. This means that the cost of raw materials cannot be reduced, which indirectly leads to the price of electric vehicles will continue to rise in the next two years.
Black cat and white cat are euler's entry-level models, the price positioning is low, and the production cost of the three-electric system accounts for 55%-60% of the cost of the vehicle. In ternary material batteries, the cost of cathode materials containing lithium, cobalt, nickel and other metal elements accounts for nearly 50% of the cost of battery materials, so the cost increases by about 20% compared with the previous period.
Secondly, today, all walks of life around the world have appeared in the supply of chips in short supply, of which the automotive sector has been greatly affected, usually dozens of yuan of chips have even been speculated to thousands of yuan. In the past two years, many car company bosses have looked for chips everywhere, which has also led to a soaring price of chips. In order to solve the dilemma, many car companies have begun to develop their own research and enter the semiconductor supply chain, such as Tesla, BYD, CRRC Times, etc. to introduce chip design into the internal model. BYD's vehicle-grade IGBT has been mass-produced and applied to the whole vehicle on a large scale, and is planning to build its own vehicle-grade SiC production line.
Under the premise of shortage of spare parts, car companies have to adjust their strategies and give priority to ensuring the scheduling of high-profit models. For models with low profits or losses, production is reduced or not scheduled. Taking the black cat as an example, it is currently in a state of loss of more than 10,000 yuan per unit, and the delivery time cannot be guaranteed, which directly affects the consumer's car purchase experience, and it is also a helpless move to stop.
In addition, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, which is undoubtedly worse for Euler. The long-endurance version of the Euler Black Cat and the White Cat have a range of 401km and 405km respectively, and the minimum endurance version of the model has a range of 301km and 305km, respectively. This year, the subsidy for pure electric passenger cars with a cruising range between 300-400km has dropped to 9100 yuan, a decrease of 3900 yuan compared with last year; the subsidy for pure electric passenger cars with a range of more than 400 kilometers has dropped to 12,600 yuan, a decrease of 5400 yuan compared with last year.
It should be known that government subsidies have played a very important role in the manufacture of new energy models by car companies, and those models on the market that still maintain the same price are basically paid by car companies to fill the cost gap, and car companies that really can't bear it can only choose to increase prices, or face suspension and suspension of production like black cats and white cats.
However, new problems in the new energy industry, such as rising raw materials, profit compression, and subsidy decline, do not only occur in the Euler brand. According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of 2022, as many as 16 car companies have raised the price of their new energy models, most of which have increased by between 3,000 yuan and 6,000 yuan, and Tesla, which has lowered prices many times in the past, has also risen by 10,000-20,000 yuan in this wave of new energy vehicle price increases.
Seek an upward breakout
In 2021, the total sales volume of Euler Automobile reached 135,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 140%. Among them, the Euler Black Cat and White Cat, which suspended orders, basically accounted for more than half of the sales, and the Euler Black Cat reached 66,300 units last year, and the Euler Black Cat and White Cat also launched a new 2022 model in August last year. With the black cat and white cat two cars stop receiving orders, how will the Euler brand go in the future? The answer is to rush higher.
Previously, Euler executives had said that the main focus of the Euler brand in the future would be placed on products of 100,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan, and in order to enhance the brand image, the price range of more than 200,000 yuan was also in the main direction of Euler.
It can be seen that good cat has established a foothold for Euler in the 100,000-yuan market, and good cat sales reached 9,020 vehicles in January, up 333.4% year-on-year, which is a signal that Euler's "brand is up".
For Euler, what is more important at present is to ensure that the follow-up new car ballet cat, lightning cat and other models are listed on schedule, because in Euler's future brand planning, focusing on products in the market of 100,000-200,000 yuan, while attacking the price range of more than 200,000 yuan is its main strategy. Looking at Euler's product layout this year, the ballet cat launched in March has been exhibited in the store, priced at 150,000-200,000, lightning cat about 200,000, and punk cat is more than 200,000. In this way, the only good cat currently on sale will become Euler's new entry-level model, which is Euler's new product positioning.
In fact, gradually completing the brand and product upgrade is also a must for Euler. At present, although the second spring of A00-class pure electric vehicles led by Hongguang MINI EV is still continuing, the share of A00-class pure electric vehicles is shrinking from the trend of new energy vehicle sales rankings and sales data changes in 2021.
"The A00-class electric vehicle market is time to reshape", Dong Yudong also said: "We hope that China's auto industry will develop benignly, that is, to achieve rise at the waist." ”
The current new energy vehicle market is still an unbalanced dumbbell structure, and high-end and low-end products still dominate. In the long run, the mature new energy vehicle market should be a spindle structure, just like the current fuel vehicle market, there are fewer low-end and high-end cars, and more cars at the middle price.
It can be inferred that in the process of the development of the market from dumbbell type to spindle type, the current popular A00-level products will gradually shrink or even disappear, and electric vehicles in the price range of 100,000-200,000 yuan will usher in a high demand.
After clearly recognizing this trend, taking this opportunity to decisively carry out strategic shifts, abandon the low-end model market and shift to a higher-level market, so as to achieve brand and product upgrades, perhaps another consideration for Euler to stop selling black and white cats.