This special military operation has entered its fourth day, and although the situation on the battlefield has undergone new changes, the similarity with the previous three days is that Kiev remains the key to the entire battlefield, with both sides, the civilians forced to be involved and world public opinion all focusing on the Ukrainian capital. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, its land forces have reached the city of Kiev and formed a multi-sided encirclement posture facing the city from the north, west and south. In contrast to the Gulf War that year, Iraq's more than 400,000 troops, under the continuous blows of more than 2,000 fighters of the United States and its allies, also persisted for more than 40 days before they were defeated. As a medium-sized country with about 250,000 regular armed forces, Ukraine also has the advantage of local defense, why was it attacked in three days when the air power of the Russian army was limited?
The situation in Kiev remains the focus of the world
First of all, it needs to be affirmed that Russia has shown a very good level of strategic layout in this war. One of the most important and overlooked is russia's successful use of tactical deception before the war. In mid-February before the outbreak of the war, the US media had given the news that "the war will break out on February 16", but because nothing happened that day, it was widely ridiculed by the outside world. From a later point of view, Russia has gathered a large number of materials and mobilized a large number of troops in order to break out of the war on the 24th, and it is difficult for this kind of preparation before a modern large-scale war not to be detected by other major powers. Based on the concentration of Russian troops, the US side gave an intelligence analysis that "war will break out on February 16", which cannot be said to be completely unfounded, but Russia's means are obviously superior.
The revelation that "war will break out on February 16" may have affected the established process of all parties
Russia may have deliberately leaked intelligence while recognizing that operations could not be kept in absolute secrecy, or it may have temporarily adjusted the timing after discovering that the original date of operations had been leaked. As a result, the Ukrainian army, which was highly vigilant around February 16, created a "wolf coming" effect. So overwhelming that Russia's long-range cruise missiles and ballistic missiles launched an attack in the early morning of the 24th, Ukraine's air defense system was almost unprepared. The air defense system with the S-300 long-range air defense missile and the Su-27 fighter as the core was lost in just a few hours. In the past three days of fighting, the number of long-range anti-aircraft missiles fired by the Ukrainian armed forces and the number of fighters that have taken off to meet the battle have been extremely limited, and there are almost no confirmable results for Russian fighters, but the various types of equipment that have been destroyed on their own side are innumerable. The Russian army, which had gained air supremacy on the battlefield by virtue of its lightning speed and invisibility, had actually grasped the initiative on the battlefield only half a day after the start of the war, creating extremely favorable conditions for the next military operation.
Ukrainian Air Force fighters destroyed by Russian forces
Secondly, there are also serious problems in the layout of the Ukrainian armed forces. Judging from the garrison situation exposed by the Ukrainian army after the outbreak of the war, the defensive line formed by the regular armed forces of Ukraine is a very obvious external defense. To put it simply, it is to station its land heavy army group in the east, southeast, south, etc., in the strategic direction adjacent to Russia, and try to realize the strategic concept of "not letting the opponent occupy an inch of territory" in order to meet the general expectations of the Ukrainian people for the army, and it is also the direct consequence of Ukraine's high-profile propaganda of its own armed forces and exaggerated the support of Western countries. But objectively speaking, this line of thinking on external defense is very undesirable for the Ukrainian armed forces, which are militarily weak.
There are many problems in the deployment of the Ukrainian armed forces
Regardless of the internal propaganda, the Ukrainian army is not an advanced modern combat force in nature, not to mention that in the war 8 years ago, a considerable part of the elite had been lost. This means that when facing the Russian army, the State of the Heavy Army Group of the Ukrainian side is deployed externally, and it is easy to be embarrassed by the rapid breakthrough and division and encirclement of the Russian armored forces. In fact, in the case of weak against strong, this top-heavy strategic layout has been proved by countless wars and is a very dangerous approach.
Early judgments of the Russian military's tactical posture were basically accurate
The idea of internal defense with a small number of capable troops deployed on the front line and filling the front backwards of heavy groups in order to provide mobile support if necessary, that is, the often said "depth for time" strategy, is undoubtedly more in line with the reality of Ukraine, but it is obviously not in line with Ukraine's internal political needs. And ukraine's armed forces, in the end, have paid a heavy price for their excessive political service. At present, the heavy armies deployed in the east, southeast and south of Ukraine, although they have not been eliminated, have been unable to carry out large-scale strategic maneuvers to the rear in the absence of air supremacy, and at the same time they have been pinned down by the frontal Russian army, although their strength has not been greatly lost, but they seem to have become lambs to be slaughtered.
A large number of heavily armored troops of the Ukrainian army are concentrated in the eastern region
In other words, the Russian army first destroyed Ukraine's ground air defense forces through fierce air raids, and then grasped the electromagnetic information of the battlefield, making it inconvenient for Ukrainian troops scattered everywhere to report and command, and did not dare to deploy in an embarrassing state of large-scale operation in the absence of air defense protection. Instead, it allowed the Russian army to come to its own devices, thus creating the illusion that the Ukrainian army was on the verge of total annihilation. In fact, this is also the terrible point of modern information-based warfare, Ukraine has more than 200,000 troops, more than 80% may still be in a normal state, but it lacks systematic and efficient command and dispatch, and the heavy military groups that are entrenched in various places can only fight for themselves. In the case that the Russian army has not yet launched an all-out attack on it, it is indeed difficult to feel the presence of these troops of the Ukrainian army, which seems to give people a feeling that they have been damaged.
The Russians continued to advance from multiple directions
Third, there is a factor that is rarely mentioned, that is, many of the core technical equipment of the Ukrainian army are left over from the Soviet era, and the Russian army knows it very well. Specifically, among the fighters and various types of air defense equipment that Ukraine uses to compete for air supremacy on the battlefield, such as the Su-27, MiG-29 fighter, S-300 long-range air defense missile, "Beech M1" medium-range air defense missile, "Doyle M2" field air defense system, are all equipment that the Russian military is familiar with, the most typical of which is the S-300.
Su-27 fighter jets equipped by the Ukrainian Air Force
Because the target characteristics of Ukrainian military airfields are very obvious, it has long been believed that Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters will be difficult to survive long-range attacks by Russian troops. In this case, the S-300, with a range of more than 120 kilometers, became Ukraine's most reliable anti-aircraft firepower. However, the country that knows the S-300 best in the world is probably Russia. Since 1991, Russia has been exporting S-300s to China, with a total export size of more than 20 battalions, and the models have also ranged from the earliest S-300PMU to the later S-300PMU2, and even the final "S-300 super improved model" - S-400. It is also in the more than 20 years of improvements that Russia not only understands every technical detail of the S-300, but is even prepared for the hardware and software equipment of the confrontation and counter-control of the system.
Heavy troops in eastern Ukraine have been divided and encircled
In this war, many sets of S-300s equipped by Ukraine were discovered by Russia and destroyed in advance without being dispatched. Even a few survived, and in the daytime operations of the 24th, they were devastated. In fact, even the "Doyle M2" field air defense system equipped with Ukraine appeared in actual combat, and before it could be launched, it was destroyed at close range by Mi-24 helicopter gunships. It can be seen that Russia knows the performance of these old Soviet equipment very well, especially in terms of electromagnetic suppression and the discovery of strike methods. In stark contrast, the Russian military seems to lack effective countermeasures in the face of advanced Equipment in the West, such as the small number of "Stinger" portable field air defense missiles recently obtained by Ukraine from Western countries, which have successfully shot down the Russian Mi-24, becoming a major threat to the Russian army's low-altitude flight.
Ukrainian air defense facilities destroyed by russian forces, including S-300s
Finally, kiev's special geographical conditions were also an important factor in attracting siege. Theoretically, even if the main force of the Ukrainian Army is difficult to maneuver, it will still take a long time for the Russian army to approach the Ukrainian capital, especially when the Ukrainian army can slow down the offensive of the Russian army by means of clearing the wall, breaking the bridge and breaking the road. The reason for the rapid encirclement of Kiev in the short term is due to its special geographical location. On the map, Kiev is indeed not close to Russia's western border, but Kiev's southern border with northern Belarus is less than 160 kilometers away. Whether it is the Russian troops that control the Chernobyl region, the Russian armored forces that first arrived near Kiev, or even the airborne troops who landed at Antonov airport, they actually borrowed from Belarus.
The Ukrainian army repeatedly resorted to the tactics of war with broken bridges
In other words, the Russian army basically controlled the air superiority of the battlefield, took advantage of the extremely short distance from Kiev to Belarus, and dispatched airborne troops to break into Thetonov airport in the Mi-8AMTSh helicopter group. Although the tactical idea of capturing the airfield and guiding the landing of the Il-76 transport group was not realized, it also successfully pinned down the nearly 10,000 living forces of about two brigade-sized Ukrainian armored forces near Kiev, creating favorable conditions for the Russian ground armored forces interspersed from the north and northeast. Eventually, as the Russian paratroopers met the main force of the ground armored forces arriving from the rear, Russia successfully achieved its strategic goal of advancing to kiev within 72 hours.
Outstanding Russian Mi-8AMTSh helicopter
In general, the reason why the Ukrainian army, sitting on 250,000 people and having almost the same number of reserve forces, was attacked by the Russian army under the city of Kiev in 72 hours, which not only demonstrated Russia's superb tactical planning ability, but also revealed a series of problems including the deployment of the Ukrainian army. It is conceivable that the ensuing series of battles around Kiev, and the final direction of the city, will determine the outcome of the entire war, and even determine the direction of the future strategic situation in Europe.
Russian tanks advancing in "cloaks"
Judging from the recent news of the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has no intention of developing the war to an uncontrollable level, and "promoting peace with fighting" should be the ultimate goal of Russia's military operation. However, with Kiev still under Ukrainian control and several Western countries beginning to provide various supports to Ukraine, the war situation has begun to move in a more complex direction. At about 1 p.m. on February 26, Germany publicly stated that it would supply Ukraine with 400 anti-tank bazookas. This comes after Germany has announced that it will supply Ukraine with 1,000 anti-tank missiles and 500 Stinger man-portable air defense missiles. In addition, 28 countries, led by the United States and the United Kingdom, have also announced that they will provide weapons, medical treatment, food and other supplies to Ukraine, of which the United States has said it will provide two batches of aid totaling $600 million.
"Stingers" and "javelins" are threats that the Russian military cannot ignore
This series of actions shows that after experiencing initial shock and chaos, Europe and the United States have reacted and begun to provide a lot of support to the Ukrainian armed forces. At the same time, the peace talks between the warring sides, which were once expected by the outside world, although the Ukrainian side reversed and delayed the negotiation agreement, it has finally been confirmed that it will take place in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. Prior to this, on the morning of February 26, Russia had said that it would expand its offensive in Ukraine "in all aspects", in fact, by exerting more pressure on Ukraine with the initiative on the battlefield to promote the signing of a peace agreement.
In fact, Ukraine's regular ground forces are still firmly tied down in the east and south, and the Russian army's current advance distance is also very limited, according to the russian Defense Ministry announced at noon on February 26, the Luhansk and Donetsk armed forces, each advancing only 30 and 6 kilometers to the forward position. Nor does Russia really want to let the scale of the war completely out of control, but no one denies that the Russian military is fully equipped with such strength.
The Russian army still adopts the strategy of "promoting peace with fighting"
As far as the overall battlefield situation is concerned, the fighting between the two sides around Kiev and other frontal battlefields will continue in the next few days, but there should be no large-scale battles. At a time when the two sides are about to start negotiations, although the "despicable" practice of aid from the West and organizing civilian attacks seems to boost the morale of the Ukrainian side, the fate of the divided Ukrainian heavy troops will also face the ruling of this negotiation. Therefore, the time and price paid by the Russian army to finally take Kiev, as well as the speed and quantity of support provided by other countries to Ukraine, will be important factors affecting the negotiations between the two sides, and they are also two key reasons for whether the war can be ended in a short period of time. Therefore, even if Kiev is already in danger, it is difficult for the Ukrainian armed forces to confront the Russian army on a frontal battlefield, but the war will continue.